Albany has had one of the best home court advantages in college basketball over the last two years, but not for the reason you might expect.
The Great Danes I’m sure have a great crowd and passionate fan base, but their biggest advantage comes in the form of Albany getting to host the preliminary rounds of the America East conference tournament. That has in large part led to Albany winning the conference’s automatic bid despite going 9-7 in conference play in 2013 and 2014. The Great Danes won the league last year with a 15-1 record, and although the conference tournament’s first couple rounds won’t be in Albany this upcoming season, you wouldn’t be faulted for expecting the Great Danes to be the league’s representative in the NCAA tournament for a fourth straight year.
Albany returns roughly 85 percent of its total minutes from last year’s team, and the Great Danes will likely start three seniors next season. Combining the most talent in the league with the most experience, not to mention the fact that the highest seed remaining gets to host the conference championship game, and Albany looks like a solid bet to make the NCAA tournament once again.
Albany and Vermont were the two outliers in the league last season, as the America East ranked 31st nationally in efficiency, with the average team scoring just .99 points per possession. The Great Danes and Catamounts, meanwhile, scored 1.1 and 1.08 points per possession respectively. Vermont might be returning even more talent than Albany, as the Catamounts lose just one senior: Hector Harold, who played in just over 20 minutes per game last season. Vermont finished third in the league standings, but led the league in defense, ranked second in offense, ranked first in both 2-point percentage and 2-point percentage allowed, and did it all with one of the least experienced teams in the entire country. I might be talking myself into the Catamounts here.
Stony Brook, who finished last season ranked second in the league and was a 3-pointer away from making its first NCAA tournament appearance, will probably start four seniors next season, and look like they could be back in the tournament hunt. The Seawolves were the best rebounding team in the league last year, grabbing the highest percentage of both offensive and defensive rebounds in the league, but they finished just 7th in eFG and were 8th in getting to the free throw line. Stony Brook mostly excelled by not turning the ball over, which will likely continue given the team’s experience, but any dip without a corresponding jump in shooting will spell trouble for Stony Brook. The Seawolves have the likely frontrunner for player of the year however in senior Jameel Warney, who shot 53 percent and was one of the nation’s best rebounders.
The rest of the league is a big step down from the top three, but I would like to make a special note about Maine, the league’s cellar dweller. The Black Bears finished just 3-27 last year under first year head coach Bob Walsh, but Walsh, just 43 years old, is thought of very highly among coaches and basketball fans alike, having had tremendous success at D3 Rhode Island college, and while it won’t happen right away, Walsh’s willingness to challenge conventional thinking and ability to think outside the box will have Maine at least competitive before he leaves.
Standings Prediction
1. Vermont
2. Albany
3. Stony Brook
4. New Hampshire
5. UMass-Lowell
6. Hartford
7. Binghamton
8. UMBC
9. Maine
All league team
Jameel Warney, Stony Brook
Ethan O’Day, Vermont
Carson Puriefoy, Stony Brook
Dre Wills, Vermont
Evan Singletary, Albany
