It’s that time of year. “Seed lines” become a part of the national discussion… and unlike Great Britain, such a term has nothing to do with the Royal Family or its babies.
We’re talking brackets, and no seed line is more scrutinized than the top one. Just exactly which teams are in line to get the four No. 1 seeds? Kentucky and Virginia are set, and Kansas is falling off the pace. Duke is in front of Villanova, and we can’t begin to consider Arizona unless the Wildcats beat Utah on Saturday, and even then, they have an uphill climb. This leaves us with one central debate for the final No. 1 seed:
With Wisconsin’s loss at Maryland on Tuesday night, are the Badgers still worthy of a number one seed over Gonzaga?
The answer is simple: not if Gonzaga wins out.
Wisconsin has three losses: Duke at home, at Rutgers, and at Maryland. One on that list really stands out and may ultimately cost the Badgers the top seed. However, the Rutgers loss was without Naismith finalist Frank Kaminsky. It was also the game in which Wisconsin lost Traevon Jackson. While Bronson Koenig has been really strong since that loss, the injury to Jackson was a huge blow and remains as much right now. Wisconsin can use Jackson’s ability to guard wing defenders and to break down opponents with the dribble.
The Duke loss was a tough blow in the non-conference portion of the season, but it was to a clear number one seed. In the loss to the Blue Devils, Wisconsin shot 43 percent beyond the arc and 41 percent from the floor. It is not as though the Badgers played poorly; they were just outplayed by a better team.
The most recent loss to Maryland came against a team that has lost at home only once — to Virginia, another top seed contender. The Terps are not a strong road squad, but they are extremely difficult to beat in College Park. This argument is not to say that Wisconsin is unworthy of the seed, because the Badgers have a top-seed profile. Gonzaga is just more worthy of that top seed if it wins out.
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When it comes to the Zags, they played what could be called a “sneaky decent” non-conference schedule. The Bulldogs’ only loss was to Arizona on the road in overtime. In November alone, Gonzaga beat SMU, St. John’s, and Georgia. In December, the Zags beat UCLA on the road and won at BYU as well.
It is difficult for Gonzaga to get quality non-conference matchups, just because there are very limited benefits to opponents. With that resume, Gonzaga has defeated a gaggle of bubble teams and a possible two seed in the Big Dance. Despite that limitation, Gonzaga has five wins over RPI top-50 teams. That is just one fewer than Wisconsin. Plus, the Zags have two wins over St. Mary’s, which sits at 56 in the RPI.
Another reason why Gonzaga deserves the top seed if it win out is that the Zags get the best shot from every single team in the West Coast Conference. For example, consider the game at St. Mary’s on Saturday. The atmosphere was unlike any other game in Moraga, California, this season. Gonzaga gets this on a nightly basis and has answered the bell every time. Even with this, Gonzaga has 12 double-digit wins in the WCC. The conference is ranked seventh in the nation by KenPom. Furthermore, if Gonzaga wins out, it would enter the NCAA tournament on a 26-game winning streak. There is only one team in the nation which is hotter than that.
However, Wisconsin is the only contender for the final top seed. Kansas has four conference losses, though in a tougher conference than either the WCC or the Big Ten. Villanova looks firmly entrenched in the two slot. Arizona is much of the same, as the Pac-12 just does not have much firepower or depth this season.
Both of these teams have been a model of consistency in their respective conferences. However, this is the Zags’ year to see their name at the top of the bracket, as was the case in 2013.
