We’re roughly two weeks away from the start of conference tournaments. For teams on the bubble, they must play well now. A number of teams notched signature victories this week, but for some, there is still work to do.
Teams in all caps are projected to be conference champions. Conference winners will account for 32 of the 68 spots in the field. In addition to the 32 projected champions, 25 other teams are currently considered to be solidly in, leaving just 11 spots for teams on the bubble.
The following projections account for all games through Thursday, February 19. Our next projection will be next Friday, February 27, accounting for all games played through February 26.
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Criteria
“Solidly in” means a team would have no doubts about whether or not it would be in the field of 68 were the NCAA tournament to start today.
Key Wins are victories over any team currently projected to be solidly in the field, or any projected conference champion with a top-100 RPI.
Bad Losses are losses to teams currently not even on the bubble, or projected conference champions with a RPI below 150.
Projected conference champions in CAPS
ACC
There were no changes in the bubble this week in the ACC.
Solidly In: VIRGINIA, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville
On the Bubble:
Clemson (15-11, 7-7 ACC)
RPI: 88
Key Wins: Arkansas
Bad Losses: Winthrop, Gardner Webb, Rutgers, Florida State, Georgia Tech
As of Now: Out. Clemson added a bad loss this week (Georgia Tech).
Miami (17-9, 7-6 ACC)
RPI: 66
Key Wins: Duke, Illinois
Bad Losses: Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
As of Now: In. Miami’s RPI is climbing despite a couple of victories over lackluster schools.
N.C. State (15-11, 6-7 ACC)
RPI: 47
Key Wins: Louisiana Tech, Duke, Louisville
Bad Losses: Wake Forest
As of Now: In. Following an impressive road win at Louisville, the Wolfpack are currently in the field.
Pittsburgh (17-10, 6-7 ACC)
RPI: 49
Key Wins: North Carolina, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Hawaii, Virginia Tech
As of Now: In. Pittsburgh finally picked up the signature win it needed against North Carolina and is the final team in.
AAC
There were no changes this week in the bubble in the AAC.
Solidly In: SMU
On the Bubble:
Cincinnati (17-9, 8-5 AAC)
RPI: 52
Key Wins: San Diego State, SMU (twice)
Bad Losses: Nebraska, East Carolina, Tulane
As of Now: In. Despite a pair of losses this week, the Bearcats’ three signature wins and respectable RPI have them in.
Connecticut (14-11, 7-6 AAC)
RPI: 83
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Yale, Houston
As of Now: Out. UCONN is fighting just to stay on the bubble at this point.
Memphis (16-10, 8-5 AAC)
RPI: 89
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Tulane, East Carolina
As of Now: Out. Memphis was impressive against Connecticut, but still has work to do.
Temple (19-8, 10-4 AAC)
RPI: 30
Key Wins: Kansas
Bad Losses: St. Joe’s, UNLV
As of Now: In. Temple could have moved to solidly in with a victory over SMU.
Tulsa (18-7, 11-2 AAC)
RPI: 48
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: SE Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts
As of Now: Out. Tulsa has played well in conference, but still lacks a signature win. Temple on Sunday is vital for the Golden Hurricane.
Atlantic 10
St. Bonaventure has fallen off the bubble.
Solidly In: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, Dayton
On the Bubble:
Davidson (18-6, 9-4 A-10)
RPI: 56
Key Wins: Dayton
Bad Losses: St. Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
As of Now: Out. Davidson beat George Washington and is staying in the hunt. The Wildcats have a favorable schedule to play their way in.
George Washington (17-9, 7-6 A-10)
RPI: 87
Key Wins: Wichita State, Dayton
Bad Losses: La Salle, Duquesne
As of Now: Out. A tough loss to Davidson at home served as a huge blow to George Washington’s tournament hopes.
UMASS (16-10, 9-4 A-10)
RPI: 39
Key Wins: Dayton, Northeastern
Bad Losses: St. Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
As of Now: Out. The Minutemen’s high RPI isn’t enough to compensate for few signature wins and a mediocre overall record.
Rhode Island (18-6, 10-3 A-10)
RPI: 64
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. Rhode Island has a great record, but no signature wins and a lot of work to do.
Big 12
Despite a 3-10 conference record, TCU moves onto the bubble.
Solidly In: KANSAS, Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas
AMES, IA – JANUARY 31: Kyan Anderson #5 of the TCU Horned Frogs takes a shot as Dustin Hogue #22, and Georges Niang #31 of the Iowa State Cyclones block in the second half of play at Hilton Coliseum on January 31, 2015 in Ames, Iowa. Iowa State defeated TCU 86-33. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
On the Bubble:
TCU (16-10, 3-10 Big 12)
RPI: 133
Key Wins: Ole Miss, Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: Kansas State
As of Now: Out. A woeful RPI makes an at-large bid an uphill climb for the Horned Frogs. Yet, let’s say TCU wins five more games. Would it be an at-large? It would at least be in the conversation. “Bubble” the Frogs for now.
Big East
Seton Hall has fallen off the Big East bubble.
Solidly In: VILLANOVA, Butler, Georgetown, Providence
On the Bubble:
St. John’s (17-9, 6-7 Big East)
RPI: 41
Key Wins: Providence (twice)
Bad Losses: DePaul, Seton Hall
As of Now: In. The Red Storm picked up a big road win over Xavier last Saturday, following our February 13 Bubble Breakdown.
Xavier (17-10, 7-7 Big East)
RPI: 32
Key Wins: Georgetown (twice), Providence, Murray State
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, DePaul, Creighton, Seton Hall
As of Now: In. The bad losses aren’t currently enough to offset the key wins and high RPI. Beating Cincinnati on the road certainly improved the Musketeers’ profile.
Big Ten
Iowa falls from solidly in to the bubble while Penn State has fallen off the bubble. Purdue moves from the bubble to solidly in.
Solidly In: WISCONSIN, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
On the Bubble:
Minnesota (16-11, 5-9 Big Ten)
RPI: 100
Key Wins: Illinois
Bad Losses: Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern
As of Now: Out. A home loss to Northwestern likely has Minnesota thinking NIT.
Iowa (16-10, 7-6 Big Ten)
RPI: 59
Key Wins: Ohio State (twice), Maryland
Bad Losses: Northwestern
As of Now: In. Iowa may have fallen to the bubble, but the overall resume’ is still strong.
Mountain West
There are no changes on the Mountain West bubble.
Solidly In: SAN DIEGO STATE, Colorado State
On the Bubble:
Boise State (19-7, 9-4 MW)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: Colorado State, San Diego State
Bad Losses: Loyola-Illinois, Utah State, Fresno State
As of Now: In. The Broncos suffered a bad loss this week at Fresno State on Saturday, but they still own two solid wins and a high RPI.
Wyoming (21-6, 10-4 MW)
RPI: 78
Key Wins: Colorado State (twice)
Bad Losses: Air Force
As of Now: Out. A strong finish and a good showing in the conference tournament are very possible for Wyoming at this point. Come back, Larry Nance — that’s the key.
Pac-12
Washington has fallen off the bubble.
Solidly In: ARIZONA, Utah
On the Bubble:
California (16-10, 6-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 91
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: CS-Bakersfield, Washington State, USC, Arizona State
As of Now: Out. Cal is in danger of falling off the bubble.
Oregon (19-8, 9-5 Pac-12)
RPI: 60
Key Wins: Illinois
Bad Losses: Michigan, Washington State, Washington
As of Now: In. Sunday’s contest against Utah could make or break the Ducks.
Oregon State (16-10, 7-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 97
Key Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Auburn, Quinnipiac, Arizona State, Washington, USC
As of Now: Out. With a chance to make a huge statement, the Beavers scored just 37 points at home against Utah on Thursday.
Stanford (16-9, 7-6 Pac-12)
RPI: 53
Key Wins: Wofford, Texas
Bad Losses: DePaul, Washington State, Colorado
As of Now: Out. Stanford’s loss to Colorado and subsequent dip in RPI make the Cardinal the first team out.
UCLA (16-11, 8-6 Pac-12)
RPI: 45
Key Wins: Utah
Bad Losses: Colorado, Arizona State
As of Now: Out. UCLA suffered a bad loss to Arizona State it simply couldn’t afford.
SEC
Tennessee falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: KENTUCKY, Arkansas, Ole Miss
On the Bubble:
Alabama (16-10, 6-7 SEC)
RPI: 68
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt
As of Now: Out. Three bad losses and no signature wins have Alabama looking at a trip to the NIT.
Georgia (16-9, 7-6 SEC)
RPI: 40
Key Wins: Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, South Carolina (twice), Auburn
As of Now: Out. Georgia suffered two bad home losses the past week (Auburn, South Carolina).
ATLANTA, GA – MARCH 13: Kourtney Roberson #14 of the Texas A&M Aggies walks off the court after fouling out in the second overtime against Missouri Tigers during the second round of the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament at Georgia Dome on March 13, 2014 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
LSU (18-8, 7-6 SEC)
RPI: 54
Key Wins: West Virginia, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Missouri, Mississippi State, Auburn
As of Now: Out. The Tigers are one of the last teams out. Beating Texas A&M could have alleviated a lot of pressure. That was a missed opportunity.
Texas A&M (18-7, 9-4 SEC)
RPI: 36
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Kansas State
As of Now: In. The Aggies still lack a signature victory, but a high RPI and few bad losses have them currently in. Beating LSU (for a season sweep) improved their stock.
Others
Stephen F. Austin moves from the projected Southland Conference champion to the bubble. Sam Houston State moves from the bubble to the projected Southland Conference champion. Western Kentucky falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: Wichita State
On the Bubble: BYU, Green Bay, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, St. Mary’s, UTEP
Bubble Teams Currently In: None
Bubble Teams Currently Out: BYU, Green Bay, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, St. Mary’s, UTEP
Overview: With the exception of BYU and St. Mary’s, this field stands a very good chance of winning its respective conferences. UTEP has a lot of work to do while BYU and Old Dominion are among the first teams out. St. Mary’s (Feb. 21) and then BYU (Feb. 28) have games against Gonzaga that could enable each team to clearly play its way into the field.
Notable Projected Conference Champions: Northeastern (CAA), Louisiana Tech (C-USA), Valparaiso (Horizon), Harvard (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Central Michigan (MAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Murray State (OVC), Wofford (Southern), Sam Houston State (Southland), Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC)
*RPI numbers via Yahoo Sports
