The end of the regular season is just more than a month away as teams seek to make their case for a spot in the NCAA tournament. A number of schools made major statements over the past week, but the bubble has actually become more open.
Teams in all caps are projected to be conference champions. Conference winners will account for 32 of the 68 spots in the field. In addition to the 32 projected champions, 23 other teams are currently considered to be solidly in, leaving just 13 spots for teams on the bubble.
The following projections account for all games through Thursday, February 26th. Our next projection will be next Friday, March 6th, accounting for all games played through March 5th.
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Criteria
“Solidly in” means a team would have no doubts about whether or not it would be in the field of 68 were the NCAA tournament to start today.
Key Wins are victories over any team currently projected to be solidly in the field, or any projected conference champion with a top-100 RPI.
Bad Losses are losses to teams currently not even on the bubble, or projected conference champions with a RPI below 150.
Projected conference champions in CAPS
ACC
Clemson falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: VIRGINIA, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville
On the Bubble:
Miami (18-10, 8-7 ACC)
RPI: 67
Key Wins: Duke
Bad Losses: Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
As of Now: Out. Miami played well this week, but still has too many bad losses and a mediocre RPI.
N.C. State (17-11, 8-7 ACC)
RPI: 40
Key Wins: Louisiana Tech, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina
Bad Losses: Wake Forest, Clemson
As of Now: In. The Wolfpack made another major statement with a 58-46 win at North Carolina.
Pittsburgh (19-10, 8-7 ACC)
RPI: 36
Key Wins: North Carolina, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Hawaii, Virginia Tech, Clemson
As of Now: In. The Panthers are one of the ACC’s hottest teams, winning six of eight.
AAC
There were no changes this week in the bubble in the AAC.
Solidly In: SMU
On the Bubble:
Cincinnati (19-9, 10-5 AAC)
RPI: 52
Key Wins: San Diego State, SMU (twice)
Bad Losses: Nebraska, East Carolina, Tulane
As of Now: In. The Bearcats have three very good wins and right now, that’s enough.
Connecticut (16-11, 9-6 AAC)
RPI: 76
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Yale, Houston
As of Now: Out. The defending national champs suffer from a low RPI and no marquee victories.
Memphis (17-11, 9-6 AAC)
RPI: 85
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Tulane, East Carolina
As of Now: Out. Memphis still has a lot of work to do.
Temple (20-9, 11-5 AAC)
RPI: 32
Key Wins: Kansas
Bad Losses: St. Joe’s, UNLV
As of Now: In. The Owls suffered a loss this week, but possess a solid RPI and one of the best wins of any bubble team, beating Kansas.
Tulsa (20-7, 13-2 AAC)
RPI: 34
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: SE Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts
As of Now: Out. Tulsa continues to win, but two bad non-conference losses and the lack of a signature win has the Golden Hurricane out.
Atlantic 10
Dayton moves from solidly in to the projected Atlantic 10 champion. Virginia Commonwealth falls from the projected A-10 champion to solidly in. Richmond moves onto the bubble.
Solidly In: DAYTON, Virginia Commonwealth
On the Bubble:
Davidson (20-6, 11-4 A-10)
RPI: 48
Key Wins: Dayton
Bad Losses: St. Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
As of Now: In. Davidson picked up a huge road victory over Rhode Island and has won six straight.
George Washington (18-10, 8-7 A-10)
RPI: 88
Key Wins: Wichita State, Dayton
Bad Losses: La Salle, Duquesne
As of Now: Out. The Colonials are desperately clinging to a spot on the bubble.
UMASS (16-12, 9-6 A-10)
RPI: 62
Key Wins: Dayton
Bad Losses: St. Joseph’s (twice), St. Bonaventure
As of Now: Out. UMASS suffered its second loss of the season to St. Joe’s this past week.
Rhode Island (19-7, 11-4 A-10)
RPI: 71
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. A heartbreaking loss to Davidson made an at-large bid an uphill climb.
Richmond (16-12, 19-6 A-10)
RPI: 66
Key Wins: Virginia Commonwealth (twice)
Bad Losses: James Madison, Wake Forest, Northeastern, George Mason
As of Now: Out. The Spiders picked up a second win over VCU this week to move onto the bubble.
Big 12
Texas falls from solidly in to the bubble.
Solidly In: KANSAS, Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor
On the Bubble:
TCU (17-11, 4-11 Big 12)
RPI: 125
Key Wins: Ole Miss, Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: Kansas State
As of Now: Out. The resume’ isn’t terrible, but the RPI certainly is for TCU.
Texas (17-11, 6-9 Big 12)
RPI: 46
Key Wins: West Virginia
Bad Losses: None
As of Now: In. The Longhorns may have fallen onto the bubble, but they still have a good RPI and no bad losses.
Big East
There are no changes this week with the Big East bubble.
Solidly In: VILLANOVA, Butler, Georgetown, Providence
On the Bubble:
OMAHA, NE – JANUARY 28: Sir’Dominic Pointer #15 of the St. John’s Red Storm blocks the shot of James Milliken #23 of the Creighton Bluejays during their game at CenturyLink Center January 28, 2015 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)
St. John’s (19-9, 8-7 Big East)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: Providence (twice)
Bad Losses: DePaul, Seton Hall
As of Now: In. The Red Storm are on fire, winning five of their last six.
Xavier (18-11, 8-8 Big East)
RPI: 30
Key Wins: Georgetown (twice), Providence, Murray State, Butler
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, DePaul, Creighton, Seton Hall
As of Now: In. The Musketeers picked up their fifth marquee win of the season by beating Butler.
Big Ten
Illinois falls from solidly in to the bubble.
Solidly In: WISCONSIN, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
On the Bubble:
Iowa (18-10, 9-6 Big Ten)
RPI: 54
Key Wins: Ohio State (twice), Maryland
Bad Losses: Northwestern
As of Now: In. Iowa is close to returning to the ranks of the solidly in.
Illinois (17-11, 7-8 Big Ten)
RPI: 60
Key Wins: Baylor, Maryland, Michigan State
Bad Losses: Michigan, Nebraska
As of Now: In. Illinois may have fallen onto the bubble, but still have more good wins than bad losses.
Minnesota (17-12, 6-10 Big Ten)
RPI: 77
Key Wins: Michigan State
Bad Losses: Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern
As of Now: Out. The Golden Gophers picked up a huge win in East Lansing, but are still in a fight to stay on the bubble.
Mountain West
There are no changes on the Mountain West bubble.
Solidly In: SAN DIEGO STATE, Colorado State
On the Bubble:
Boise State (21-7, 11-4 MW)
RPI: 41
Key Wins: Colorado State, San Diego State
Bad Losses: Loyola-Illinois, Utah State, Fresno State
As of Now: Out. Good wins from other bubble teams really hurt the Broncos this week.
Wyoming (21-7, 10-5 MW)
RPI: 96
Key Wins: Colorado State (twice)
Bad Losses: Air Force, Fresno State
As of Now: Out. A loss to Fresno State this week may have the Cowboys NIT bound.
Pac-12
California has fallen off the bubble.
Solidly In: ARIZONA, Utah
On the Bubble:
Oregon (21-8, 11-5 Pac-12)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: Utah
Bad Losses: Michigan, Washington State, Washington
As of Now: In. Oregon is red hot and was very impressive in a victory over No. 9 Utah.
Oregon State (18-11, 8-8 Pac-12)
RPI: 97
Key Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Auburn, Quinnipiac, Arizona State, Washington, USC
As of Now: Out. Thursday’s loss to Stanford may have killed any hopes the Beavers have of snatching up an at-large bid.
Stanford (18-9, 9-6 Pac-12)
RPI: 51
Key Wins: Wofford
Bad Losses: DePaul, Washington State, Colorado
As of Now: Out. Stanford remains one of the first teams out, but will have an opportunity to finish strong.
UCLA (17-12, 9-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 49
Key Wins: Utah
Bad Losses: Colorado, Arizona State, California
As of Now: Out. The Bruins have done little to separate themselves from other teams on the bubble.
SEC
There are no changes on the SEC bubble this week.
Solidly In: KENTUCKY, Arkansas, Ole Miss
On the Bubble:
Alabama (17-11, 7-8 SEC)
RPI: 79
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt
As of Now: Out. Alabama split a pair of games this week and still lacks a signature victory.
Georgia (18-9, 9-6 SEC)
RPI: 29
Key Wins: Ole Miss (twice)
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, South Carolina (twice), Auburn
As of Now: Out. Despite a strong RPI and a recent win in Oxford, Georgia has twice as many bad losses as solid wins.
BATON ROUGE, LA – FEBRUARY 10: Jarell Martin #1 of the LSU Tigers is defended by Marcus Lee #00 of the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half of a game at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center on February 10, 2015 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
LSU (20-8, 9-6 SEC)
RPI: 55
Key Wins: West Virginia, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Missouri, Mississippi State, Auburn, Clemson
As of Now: In. LSU is the last team in. The Tigers lack the RPI that fellow SEC bubble teams have, but they have road victories over both Ole Miss and West Virginia and came closer than any other team to beating Kentucky.
Texas A&M (19-8, 10-5 SEC)
RPI: 31
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Kansas State
As of Now: Out. The Aggies missed an opportunity this week against Arkansas and are the first team out.
Others
Stephen F. Austin moves from the bubble to the projected Southland Conference champion. Sam Houston State moves from the projected Southland Conference champion to the bubble.
Solidly In: Wichita State
On the Bubble: BYU, Green Bay, Old Dominion, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, UTEP
Bubble Teams Currently In: Old Dominion
Bubble Teams Currently Out: BYU, Green Bay, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, UTEP
Overview: To get a bid, it’s beginning to look like Green Bay, Sam Houston State and UTEP will need to win their conferences. BYU and St. Mary’s each have lackluster RPIs and have failed to beat Gonzaga or make major noise out of conference. Old Dominion grabs the next to last spot this week as the Monarchs have a top 50 RPI, non-conference wins over a pair of bubble teams in LSU and Richmond and big victories over Louisiana Tech and Virginia Commonwealth.
Notable Projected Conference Champions: William & Mary (CAA), Louisiana Tech (C-USA), Valparaiso (Horizon), Harvard (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Central Michigan (MAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Murray State (OVC), Wofford (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Georgia Southern (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC)
*RPI numbers via Yahoo Sports
