Selection Sunday has arrived and in just hours, the brackets will be unveiled. The field for the most part has been set, but bids could still be lost on Sunday should Connecticut defeat SMU. Barring the defending national champions doing the unthinkable, we bring you the field of 68.
Teams in all caps are or are projected to be conference champions. Conference winners will account for 32 of the 68 spots in the field. In addition to the 32 projected champions, 30 other teams are currently considered to be solidly in, leaving just six spots for teams on the bubble.
The following projections account for all games through Saturday, March 14.
*
Criteria
“Solidly in” means a team would have no doubts about whether or not it would be in the field of 68 were the NCAA tournament to start today.
Key Wins are victories over any team currently projected to be solidly in the field, or any conference champion or projected conference champion with a top-100 RPI.
Bad Losses are losses to teams who were not even on the bubble as of March 6. Teams in that breakdown which have fallen off the bubble are no longer considered bad losses. Those schools are: Connecticut, George Washington, Iona, UMASS, Memphis, Minnesota, Murray State, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, Stanford, Texas A&M, UTEP, and Vanderbilt.
Bad losses also include conference champions or projected conference champions with a RPI below 150.
Projected conference champions in CAPS
ACC
Notre Dame is the ACC champion. Virginia falls from the projected ACC champion to solidly in. N.C. State moves from the bubble to solidly in. Pittsburgh falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: NOTRE DAME, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, N.C. State
On the Bubble:
Miami (21-12, 10-8 ACC)
RPI: 65
Key Wins: Duke, N.C. State
Bad Losses: Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
As of Now: Out. The Hurricanes are the first team out.
AAC
Cincinnati and Temple move from the bubble to solidly in.
Solidly In: SMU, Cincinnati, Temple
On the Bubble:
Tulsa (22-10, 14-4 AAC)
RPI: 45
Key Wins: Temple (twice)
Bad Losses: SE Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts
As of Now: In. Tulsa is the last team in. A UCONN victory on Sunday and the Golden Hurricane will be out.
Atlantic 10
Davidson falls from the projected conference champion to solidly in. Dayton moves from solidly in to the projected conference champion. Richmond has fallen off the bubble.
Solidly In: DAYTON, Davidson, Virginia Commonwealth
On the Bubble:
Rhode Island (22-9, 13-5 A-10)
RPI: 66
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. The Rams never notched a signature win and have a lackluster RPI.
Big 12
Iowa State is the conference champion. Kansas falls from the projected conference champion to solidly in.
Solidly In: IOWA STATE, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor
On the Bubble:
Oklahoma State (18-13, 8-10 Big 12)
RPI: 49
Key Wins: Kansas, Baylor (twice)
Bad Losses: South Carolina, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech
As of Now: In. The Cowboys’ late season swoon wasn’t enough to keep them out of the tournament.
Texas (20-13, 8-10 Big 12)
RPI: 43
Key Wins: West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa
Bad Losses: None
As of Now: In. Texas may have fallen short against Iowa State, but avoiding a bad loss to Texas Tech was enough to get the ‘Horns in the dance.
Big East
Xavier moves from the bubble to solidly in.
Solidly In: VILLANOVA, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier
On the Bubble:
The Big East bubble is empty.
Big Ten
There were no changes on the Big Ten bubble.
Solidly In: WISCONSIN, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue
On the Bubble:
Illinois (19-13, 9-9 Big Ten)
RPI: 73
Key Wins: Baylor, Maryland, Michigan State
Bad Losses: Michigan (twice), Nebraska
As of Now: Out. Closing the season with a bad loss and a 70+ RPI likely means Illinois will play in the NIT.
Indiana (20-13, 9-9 Big Ten)
RPI: 59
Key Wins: SMU, Butler, Ohio State, Maryland
Bad Losses: Northwestern
As of Now: In. Despite a lackluster RPI, the Hoosiers have four quality wins including two out of conference.
Mountain West
Wyoming is the Mountain West champion. Boise State falls from the projected Mountain West champion to the bubble.
Solidly In: WYOMING, San Diego State, Colorado State
LAS VEGAS, NV – FEBRUARY 18: Derrick Marks #2 of the Boise State Broncos is guarded by Jelan Kendrick #22 of the UNLV Rebels during their game at the Thomas & Mack Center on February 18, 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Boise State won 53-48. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Boise State (25-8, 14-4 Mountain West)
RPI: 41
Key Wins: San Diego State (twice), Colorado State
Bad Losses: Loyola-Illinois, Fresno State, Utah State
As of Now: In. The Mountain West’s regular season champion, Boise State has the wins and RPI necessary to make its case.
Pac-12
Stanford falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: ARIZONA, Utah, Oregon
On the Bubble:
UCLA (20-13, 11-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 48
Key Wins: Utah, Oregon
Bad Losses: Alabama, Colorado, Arizona State, California
As of Now: Out. The Bruins didn’t do enough out of conference or make enough noise in their tournament.
SEC
Texas A&M falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: KENTUCKY, Arkansas
On the Bubble:
Georgia (21-11, 11-7 SEC)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, South Carolina (twice), Auburn
As of Now: Out. Despite a very good RPI, the Bulldogs don’t have a win over a single team that is a lock to be in the NCAA Tournament.
LSU (22-10, 11-7 SEC)
RPI: 56
Key Wins: West Virginia, Arkansas
Bad Losses: Missouri, Mississippi State, Auburn (twice), Clemson, Tennessee
As of Now: In. LSU has a number of bad losses, but two very good wins on the road.
Ole Miss (20-12, 11-7 SEC)
RPI: 55
Key Wins: Oregon, Arkansas
Bad Losses: Charleston Southern, TCU, Western Kentucky, South Carolina
As of Now: Out. The Rebels lost four of their final five games to play themselves out of the tournament.
Others
BYU moves from the bubble to solidly in. Iona, Murray State and UTEP fall off the bubble. Louisiana Tech falls from the projected Conference USA champion to the bubble.
Solidly In: Wichita State, BYU
On the Bubble:
Louisiana Tech (25-8, 15-3 C-USA)
RPI: 58
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette
As of Now: Out. No signature wins has C-USA’s regular season champ headed to the NIT.
Old Dominion (24-7, 13-5 C-USA)
RPI: 46
Key Wins: Virginia Commonwealth
Bad Losses: Illinois State, Middle Tennessee State (twice), Western Kentucky, UTSA
As of Now: Out. The loss in their first game of the conference tournament did in the Monarchs.
Overview: Close losses rarely do much, but it is worth noting that LSU played Kentucky closer than any other team this season. Both of LSU’s quality wins were on the road as well. Moreover, the Tigers had 22 wins — the most of any bubble team from a Power 5 conference.
Indiana, Boise State and Oklahoma State all had NCAA resumes. Indiana picked up four quality wins and only one bad loss despite the lackluster RPI, while the Broncos generated the wins and RPI to support their regular season Mountain West title, thereby bolstering their claim. Oklahoma State struggled down the stretch, but its three victories were very good, beating Kansas once and Baylor twice.
Tulsa struggled all season to get a quality win, but Temple becoming a lock makes a pair of victories over the Owls worth noticing. The Golden Hurricane also had a better RPI than Miami, UCLA, Old Dominion and Ole Miss.
Old Dominion suffered five bad losses, including one in the first round of the C-USA tourney. Miami was the first team out due to its four bad losses and 60+ RPI. The Hurricanes pass the eye test, but on paper, Miami’s case is not as strong compared to other bubble teams. Though the RPI was better, the same was largely true for UCLA, which did very little outside of conference play.
Once a lock, Ole Miss faltered to close the season and had 12 total losses, four of them bad ones, in a conference that has just two locks. Some have Georgia as a lock, but if you look past the Bulldogs’ splendid RPI, there are many bad losses and no wins against a team that is a current “definite” to be in the field. Look past the RPI and the case for Georgia is very weak.
Illinois had the wins, but 13 losses was as many as any team on the bubble. It’s tough to justify allowing the Fighting Illini in with a 70+ RPI.
The Projected Field:
American East (1): ALBANY
American Athletic (4): SMU*, Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa
Atlantic 10 (3): DAYTON*, Davidson, Virginia Commonwealth
ACC (6): NOTRE DAME, Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State
Atlantic Sun (1): NORTH FLORIDA
Big 12 (7): IOWA STATE, Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State
Big East (6): VILLANOVA, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier
Big Sky (1): EASTERN WASHINGTON
Big South (1): COASTAL CAROLINA
Big Ten (7): WISCONSIN*, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana
Big West (1): UC-IRVINE
Colonial Athletic Association (1): NORTHEASTERN
Conference USA (1): UAB
Horizon League (1): VALPARAISO
Ivy League (1): HARVARD
MAAC (1): MANHATTAN
MAC (1): BUFFALO
MEAC (1): HAMPTON
Missouri Valley (2): NORTHERN IOWA, Wichita State
Mountain West (4): WYOMING, San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State
Northeast (1): ROBERT MORRIS
Ohio Valley (1): BELMONT
Pac-12 (3): ARIZONA, Utah, Oregon
Patriot League (1): LAFAYETTE
SEC (3): KENTUCKY*, Arkansas, LSU
Southern (1): WOFFORD
Southland (1): STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
SWAC (1): TEXAS SOUTHERN
Summit League (1): NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Sun Belt (1): GEORGIA STATE*
WCC (2): GONZAGA, BYU
WAC (1): NEW MEXICO STATE
*- denotes conference tournament in progress
RPI numbers via Yahoo Sports
