It doesn’t happen every spring, but it does happen every March, just before the seasons officially change: A plot twist in the middle section of a power-conference race puts a bubble team in even bigger trouble.
Hmmm — why this focus on the “middle section” of a conference race? What could be the point of emphasizing whether a team finishes in fifth place as opposed to fourth?
You’ll find out soon enough.
There’s a very specific reason why Stanford and LSU have reason to be concerned… and why Texas A&M should be worried that LSU is in trouble.
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First, look at the new RPI report for Thursday, March 5. (Reminder: If you click on this link in subsequent days, the numbers will be different.) You will see that LSU, following a decisive home-court loss to Tennessee on Wednesday night, has moved down on the list. This is bad news for a Texas A&M team whose best two wins are both against LSU. The Aggies need LSU to be good, and LSU’s loss wasn’t part of the plan in College Station.
We’re not here to talk about why one team winning and one team losing is bad, though. What we’re really discussing is a specific result of wins and losses in the conference standings.
One very important development in the SEC standings, brought about by LSU’s loss to Tennessee, is that the Tigers are now fifth in the league, behind Ole Miss. LSU swept the Rebels, and was therefore in position to potentially get a top-four seed in the SEC tournament, but this loss has the Tigers on the outside looking in. Unless LSU wins at Arkansas on Saturday and Ole Miss loses at home to Vanderbilt, the Tigers can’t harbor any hopes of a top-four spot.
So, as mentioned above, why is it significant that LSU is now fifth instead of having a good chance of finishing in the top four? The narrow response is an obvious one: The top four seeds in a tournament get a bye into the quarterfinals, avoiding a second-round game. On the surface, the most immediate benefit of the bye is that in a conference tournament, you’d rather have to play only three games to win the tournament instead of four or even five. If you win your quarterfinal, you don’t want to have dead legs in the semifinals. That’s nakedly apparent.
However, there’s a deeper reason why every season brings about at least one or two examples of a team needing to finish fourth in a power conference instead of fifth: the RPI.
While the RPI isn’t everything, it does matter, and here’s the point about finishing fifth in a league: Not only do you have to play a second-round game; you have to play a No. 12 (or for the 14-team leagues, possibly a No. 13) seed. That No. 12 or No. 13 seed will generally be a low-RPI opponent. For LSU, the opponent would likely be Auburn or Mississippi State, though the SEC tournament bracket won’t be set in stone until after play on Saturday. If the opponent is Mississippi State, LSU would be playing a team near 200 in the RPI. That’s an unwanted drag on the schedule late in the season.
Consider the alternative scenario for LSU: Had the Tigers finished fourth, they would not only avoid a possible game against Mississippi State; their first game would be against Ole Miss, a team with a top-50 RPI. It is valuable for a team to avoid an RPI-dragging game and play a quality opponent to start a conference tournament. In just about any conference tournament, this comes down to the difference between being the fifth seed or the fourth seed.
Texas A&M will be a top-four seed in the SEC tournament, so that’s a plus for the Aggies. However, as mentioned above, they need LSU to look as good as possible, so an RPI-dragging game for the Tigers also drags at A&M’s profile. Both LSU and A&M have seen their fortunes plummet this week for reasons connected to seeding and bracketing in the SEC tournament, not just LSU’s loss to Tennessee.
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In the Pac-12, the above scenario involving LSU has been replicated, and Stanford is the victim.
With Oregon and UCLA winning on Wednesday night, Stanford is locked into the fifth seed for the Pac-12 tournament. The Cardinal will not be able to play their first game in Las Vegas against Oregon or UCLA. They will have to play the No. 12 seed in the Pac, which is also the last-place team: USC, a squad with an RPI in the low 200s. That’s a terrible development for a Stanford team which already had no real margin for error.
Stanford has to do something special to make the tournament — the ideal path would run through Tucson this Saturday. A win over the Wildcats could rescue the Trees at the eleventh hour. If Stanford fails there, the Cardinal would have to at least make the Pac-12 final, which would involve beating Arizona in the semifinals. Merely getting to the semifinals, though, would demand beating USC and UCLA first. Having to play that extra game against USC as a No. 5 seed might not hurt the Cardinal too much for a possible quarterfinal against UCLA, but it might prove to be too much against Arizona.
Had Stanford been able to get the No. 4 seed in the Pac-12 tournament, its need to win an important game or two would still exist, but the RPI and strength-of-schedule variables would be a little bit better.
That might not seem like much, but at this time of year, bubble teams from all conferences can use every small advantage they can get.
Speaking of bubble teams, UCLA is the Pac-12 equivalent of Texas A&M in this examination. The Bruins do have a win over Utah, but their other two noticeable wins are found in a sweep of Stanford. UCLA has a top-four seed locked up in the Pac-12 tournament, but as was the case with A&M needing LSU to look stronger on a numerical level, UCLA needs the same to be the case with Stanford. Seeing the Cardinal play 200-plus USC is not what UCLA wanted. If the Bruins beat the Cardinal in the Pac-12 quarters, they’re not going to get too much of a bubble bounce from that win. They — like Stanford — will almost certainly have to beat Arizona in the semifinals to go Dancing.
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It’s been a bad week for Stanford and LSU, and by extension, it’s been a bad week for UCLA and Texas A&M.
Much of this is due to not taking care of (enough) business during 30 or more games, sure. However, a small part of this is due to being a fifth seed instead of a fourth seed in a conference. It’s a reminder that pre-March basketball counts — contrary to what most American sports fans are conditioned to think.
