Because it seems that about half of the Big Ten Conference has found itself located firmly on the bubble, this weekend’s schedule provides some very tantalizing games. Bubble games might not feature the best teams, but they bring the most drama to the conclusion of the regular season, leading into the conference tournaments. The Big Ten is the place to be for bubble watchers this weekend.
The only team fighting for a bid in the middle section of the conference that does not battle another “bubbler” is Iowa, which plays Northwestern. Each of the other teams in the four through eight slots in the conference standings will play each other in separate Indiana locales.
First, in the matinee, Michigan State travels to Indiana in a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions at either the perfect or most inopportune time… depending on your perspective. The game will air on ESPN at noon.
After a home loss to Texas Southern on Dec. 20, it looked like this was finally the year Sparty was going to drop off. However, since that loss, Michigan State has rolled off a 12-6 record. There are still a couple of bad losses mixed in – cough Nebraska cough – but overall the Spartans’ resume looks pretty solid. Even the non-conference losses, outside of Texas Southern, possess an appreciable degree of quality. The Spartans lost to Duke by 10, Notre Dame by one in overtime, and Kansas by five. The talent clearly isn’t as great as it’s been in past years, but Tom Izzo is just impossible to doubt. Michigan State has been a quiet assassin most of the campaign; why not in March, too?
The hit Michigan State has on its agenda for Saturday could be quite the death blow to Indiana. After looking like a strong team just a month and a half ago, the wheels appear to be coming off for the Hoosiers. Since beating Maryland on Jan. 22, Indiana has lost seven of its last 11 games, including a loss to Northwestern and fellow bubble-dwellers Iowa and Purdue. The Hoosiers lost twice, not just once, to the Boilermakers. Tom Crean’s bunch has to get the ship righted on Saturday, or it will be in serious trouble. For a team that needed just five wins after Jan. 22 to get to 20 wins and 10 in the conference, the Hoosiers are still one shy in each department. If they lose in Bloomington Saturday, it is going to take a strong run in the Big Ten Tournament to get the Hoosiers in.
Then, in the nightcap, Purdue hosts Illinois on the Big Ten Network at 4:30 Eastern.
Purdue looks like a strong candidate at this point, but squandered a couple of opportunities last week to make itself closer to a lock, with competitive losses at Ohio State and at Michigan State. At this point, the Boilermakers appear to be firmly in, but they cannot take a bad loss. They already have two in the non-conference schedule with home-court losses to North Florida and Gardner-Webb. A loss at Vanderbilt did not help.
However, Purdue has gotten healthy in conference play, with only two losses against teams that are below the Boilermakers in the standings: at Minnesota and at the same team they play Saturday, Illinois. All the Boilermakers have to do is take care of business and they are in.
Illinois is in particularly dire straights. With only a couple of quality wins in the conference, the Illini really need another quality road win, and Saturday will be their last shot at it. In conference, they have beaten Maryland and won at Michigan State, and they also have a non-conference, neutral-court win over Baylor. However, they also have losses to Nebraska, Minnesota, and Michigan, all road games. The only way for the Illini to go Dancing is to take this game and win at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament next week. Otherwise, the NIT will be calling.
It is a huge weekend in the Big Ten for bubble teams. The state of Indiana will be popping with energy; Indiana and Purdue fans hope that bubbles won’t be popped… or that if they are, Illinois will be the only team meeting that cruel fate.
