Championships hang in the balance on this great Saturday. The ACC, Big East, Big 12, Mountain West and Pac-12, as well as some smaller conferences, will determine their league champions. The A-10, AAC, SEC and Big Ten unfurl their semifinals. After Friday night’s great night of basketball, today is poised to be as good. While there aren’t as many games, the importance of them means NCAA tournament bids for the winners.
The first thing people check is the NCAA tournament bubble. On Friday we focused on the losers first. For this Saturday morning edition, let’s take a look at the teams that won to help their status.
Georgia
Beating South Carolina isn’t really anything THAT substantial, but Georgia did it to advance to the SEC semifinals. The Bulldogs will meet Arkansas. Getting to the SEC final would make them a definite lock. Losing Friday was not an option if UGA wanted an at large bid.
Davidson
As covered on the Locker on Friday, Davidson beat La Salle in dramatic fashion to advance to the A-10 semifinals. It draws a team in VCU that Davidson routed nine days ago. Many had Davidson in the field already, now the Wildcats don’t have to worry about the consequences of losing.
Purdue
It was not the definition of pretty basketball but Purdue got the job done to knock Penn State out of the Big Ten tournament. Purdue should be playing with house money Saturday afternoon when it meets Wisconsin. It’s hard to view that as a game which knocks the Boilers out of the tournament if they lose it. The biggest takeaway from this game was the sadness of Penn State’s D.J. Newbill as he came to terms with the fact that his career was ending.
Temple and Tulsa
Both got wins to advance to the AAC tournament semifinals. Temple topped Memphis while Tulsa put away Houston. Neither win is much of a needle mover for either school. Both teams are in positions to reach the finals. Both are going to be underdogs. Both probably need a win to feel very safe.
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On the flip side, who are the teams that shot themselves in the foot by not being able to shoot the ball into the basket enough times?
Boise State
The Broncos scored 38 points in the first half of their Mountain West semifinal against Wyoming. That was great. They scored half of that in the second half, which was a large reason why they were taken to overtime by the Wyoming Cowboys. Boise State ultimately fell in overtime. This loss shouldn’t be enough to knock them out. It could be a loss that sends Boise State to Dayton for the First Four, however.
Indiana
IU lost a tough game to Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Maybe my opinion of the Hoosiers is different than other views, but at any rate, I see IU as a tournament team. If we are comparing some of these teams to how actually good they are, I think Indiana looks the part more than someone like Ole Miss or an Old Dominion or Miami. Still, IU took a tough loss to Maryland and now has to wait a long two days to find out if it did enough.
LSU
There are two versions of LSU: surprisingly great LSU and disappointingly horrendous LSU. We got the latter in their SEC tournament quarterfinal against Auburn on Friday. Johnny Jones is one of the worst in-game coaches in America. With all of this talent, especially in the mediocre SEC, there is no reason that LSU should be on the bubble. There is no reason the Tigers should be worried about going to Dayton. And yet, here we are.
UCLA
The Bruins held a 47-40 lead over Arizona with 12:09 remaining in the Pac-12 semifinals. Over the next six and a half minutes, UCLA fell victim to a 17-2 run. Arizona does that to people. The Wildcats will probably do that against whatever 8, 9 or 10 seed they play next weekend. The Bruins rallied to get the margin to one bucket late in the game. That was the best they could do. Watching them play lately, this has the looks of a tournament team. I’m not so sure they are going to make it.
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Power Conference Bid Thieves Update
There is blood in the water with some potential bid thieves threatening to win their conference tournaments.
Connecticut defeated Cincinnati thanks to a Ryan Boatright three pointer in the closing seconds. The Huskies advance to a semifinal game against Tulsa. Even beating Tulsa would make the committee take a longer look at UConn, which would then have 6 top 50 victories. The only AAC tournament games people are showing up for are the ones that involve UConn. They have a huge home court advantage and are significant favorites over Tulsa.
Wyoming shocked Boise State to advance to the Mountain West final. The Cowboys are found on zero brackets in the Bracket Matrix, which means they are a live wire. Wyoming meets San Diego State to determine the MWC champion. If you are a fan of a bubble team, you better be rooting your butt off for Wyoming to lose.
Rhode Island thumped George Washington to move into the A-10 semifinals against Dayton. The other three teams in the A-10 semis are all considered to be NCAA locks. URI is the lone exception.
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Pour one out for the regular season champions from one bid leagues that were bounced in their conference tournaments. Friday saw a pair of those. MEAC heavyweight North Carolina Central was unceremoniously dropped in the semis by Delaware State. No word on if there is going to be a press release about the loss at this time.
Conference USA saw both of its top seeds fall Friday, but the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs will find their way into the NIT. Finishing the regular season with a 15-3 conference mark, La Tech couldn’t get completely over the hump in overtime after a dramatic comeback late in regulation against UAB, which is playing in its home city of Birmingham.
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A result that made me feel smart: North Carolina 71, Virginia 67
A day after saying I was worried if Virginia’s offense was good enough to get the Cavaliers past a potential Sweet 16 opponent, one beat them Friday night. Virginia’s defense can keep it in any game. The offense has stalled so much that the Cavaliers are vulnerable. It’s hard to get to that soft underbelly, but it’s there.
A result that made me feel dumb: Notre Dame 74, Duke 64
A day after saying “LOL Notre Dame in tournaments, they sure suck,” the Fighting Irish beat the hell out of Duke. I’ll assume I was their bulletin board material. Sorry, Coach K.
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Saturday’s Slate
Here’s a rundown of Saturday’s slate of action. The higher seeded teams are listed first, the Ken Pom favorites are in bold. * denotes bubble teams.
AAC
SMU vs *Temple* – 3
*Tulsa* vs Connecticut – 5:23
SMU got a tougher than expected game from East Carolina on Friday afternoon. Temple brings a stiffer challenge but one is reminded that Temple went 0-2 against SMU during the regular season. It’s going to be a huge, huge game for the Owls. Win and they could be a lock. Tulsa is a pretty significant underdog, according to the projections, for their true road game at UConn. The Huskies and Mustangs were the big favorites to reach the finals before the tournament started. Things are playing out to form.
A-10
Davidson vs VCU – 1:30
Dayton vs Rhode Island – 3
Both Davidson and Dayton recently blew out their semifinal opponents. As mentioned earlier, URI are the only team that’s not considered a lock for the Big Dance. They are the team to monitor. VCU has had a very encouraging run in the A-10 tournament after looking pretty lost to close the regular season. A run to the final would give them a lot of life and make them a popular selection to upset someone.
ACC
Notre Dame vs North Carolina – 8:30
Each upset winners over the heavy favorites to bring down the ACC title. North Carolina is a 59% favorite to knock off the Fighting Irish. The two teams played a very dramatic game in Chapel Hill earlier this season when Notre Dame blew a pretty significant lead. This should be a pretty fun game with a lot of offense.
Big 12
Kansas vs Iowa State – 6
The cream of the Big 12 crop rise to meet each other in Kansas City. While unmentioned so far, Kansas throttled Baylor like they always seem to do to advance to the final. Iowa State sprung another comeback on Oklahoma, then survived a missed bunny to avoid overtime. It’s a bit repetitive to say this game should be a hell of a lot of fun, but this game should be a hell of a lot of fun. These are fun teams to watch who seem to always play good games.
Big East
Villanova vs Xavier – 8
Villanova is a heavy favorite over a Xavier team that they handled twice. The Wildcats got a very stiff challenge from Providence. Josh Hart hit a pretty big three point shot late in the game that propped the lead. That seemed like a game Villanova needed to go through. Chances are that they are going to play someone who hangs close to them in a potential 8/9 game so it’s good to be tested. It’s a hell of a lot better to win those games. Xavier, meanwhile, took down Georgetown for the third time this season. Xavier had a monster lead of 20 points disintegrate late. The Hoyas couldn’t quite close it out though, which allowed Xavier to slam the door and move to their first Big East final. This is yet another game to keep an eye on Saturday night.
Big Ten
Wisconsin vs *Purdue* – 1
Maryland vs Michigan State – 3:25
All four of these are tournament squads. It’ll be really weird for CBS viewers to hear Bill Raftery calling the Big Ten game… but in a good way. Wisconsin survived a test Friday afternoon from a game Michigan squad. Michigan State beat down Ohio State to advance. The Spartans are a 60% favorite over the Terps, which I found to be a bit of a surprise. Maryland swept the season series.
Conference USA
UAB vs Middle Tennessee – 3:30
I was stunned to find out this game wasn’t at 11:30 a.m. When and why did it change? (You mean CBS no longer saw this game as being a valuable television draw? Get out of here.) Now I won’t know the Conference USA title game is on and won’t watch a single second. (Okay, it’s on Fox Sports 1, but it will be going up agaisnt the Big Ten semifinals.) There is an 11 a.m. game, though: Albany and Stony Brook meet for the America East title.
MAC
Central Michigan vs Buffalo – 7:30
These two squads each won their respective divisions. While Buffalo is the favorite to win in Cleveland, Central Michigan swept the season series.
Mountain West
San Diego State vs Wyoming – 6
I covered this one a bit earlier. San Diego State is a huge favorite to win the tournament. Wyoming would be a bid thief.
Pac 12
Arizona vs Oregon – 11
The top two seeds from the tournament lock up in the final. Just how they drew it up. As one would expect, the Wildcats are a heavy 86% favorite over Oregon. Both of the games in Las Vegas, this and Mountain West, have two of the biggest favorites of the day. There is good reason for Arizona being such a heavy favorite. The Wildcats pounded the hell out of Oregon by 18 and 34 during the season. The Ducks did knock off Utah on Friday night. They could have another upset inside them.
SEC
Kentucky vs Auburn – 1
Arkansas vs *Georgia* – 3:30
The Wildcats rolled Florida by a solid 15 points to kick off SEC quarterfinal play. It’s worth mentioning that the only time Kentucky played Bruce Pearl’s team during the regular season, UK hung 110 points on Auburn. It was clearly an act of sending a message. One wonders if that message will be sent again. Auburn would have to be the sentimental favorite after rallying for 3 wins in 3 days after winning 4 total SEC regular season games. Arkansas outlasted Tennessee Friday night. The Hogs seem like the best fit to challenge Kentucky one last time before the NCAA tournament. The reason no team is in bold is because that’s a 50/50 toss up. It’s the first time I remember seeing that on Ken Pom.
