Conference tournament action has hit the semifinals for most of the major conferences. There are a few stragglers like the Big Ten and SEC that end on Sunday, but for the most part we have the juicy matchups set. Today was a day of really bad losses by teams trying to make a tournament bid. Here are just a few examples of teams that crashed their NCAA tournament bid truck into a revine.
Texas
The Longhorns blew a 17 point lead to Iowa State by not scoring over the last four minutes and giving up a 12-0 run. That’s how you “NIT.” Fortunately for Texas, the Horns may have done enough in losing a close game to look like a tournament team. Given what some of the others did Thursday, that’s something at least. Blowing the game against Iowa State could be enough to make people take a long look at Rick Barnes. The Texas talent is a lot better than 20-13. His decision to tell his players to initiate the offense with 11 seconds left and the shot clock off is something that will be debated at length in Austin.
The SEC. The whole thing
Want some terrible losses? Here’s Ole Miss losing in horrendous fashion, as covered here, to South Carolina. Need something more? How about Texas A&M getting throttled by 17 in the second half in a loss to 14-19 Auburn? That’ll fill your terrible loss basket. Some people were questioning how there could be five or six SEC teams in the NCAA tournament. They ought to be relieved that there shouldn’t be. If Ole Miss and/or Texas A&M make it in, there are two teams to automatically pick to lose in round one.
Illinois
Fans of the team in orange were made I-L-L watching their team get destroyed by Michigan in the team’s opening — and last — game of the Big Ten tournament. That probably locks up Illinois as an NIT team. Quite frankly that’s the fate the Illini deserve.
Oklahoma State
I don’t know how close the Cowboys are to the cut line, but they should be worrying some now. OSU had its doors blown off against Oklahoma, 64-49. The Cowboys finished a disappointing 18-13.
Miami
I would say that of all the teams that lost on Thursday, Miami looked the best. Yes, the Canes fell in a massive hole against Notre Dame. Yes, they were further behind some of the other teams. The way the Hurricanes played in the second half had them looking like Notre Dame’s equal. This type of logic can be turned against the writer when it’s suggested Creighton and TCU should have consideration for hanging close to Georgetown and Kansas respectively, but the difference is that Miami could beat someone in the first round. While it’s more likely that the Canes would lose, I think they would be a better team to end up in Dayton instead of some of the SEC choices.
Old Dominion
Some might not really know why Old Dominion was on anyone’s bubble since the Monarchs come from Conference USA, but they had defeated LSU, VCU and Richmond. However, after losing Thursday in the Conference USA tournament, they don’t have much of a case to make.
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Scott, did any teams on the bubble actually win? Yes they did. Let’s cover those teams quickly.
VCU
Not a lot of people have VCU on the bubble in their brackets. You would have certainly seen the Rams fall off if they had lost to another bunch of Rams from Fordham on Thursday. That fate was avoided and a quarterfinal with Richmond awaits in the Atlantic 10. VCU could probably take a loss to Richmond and still make the tournament. Thursday’s win pretty much locked the Rams in unless something wild happens Friday.
UCLA
The Bruins blitzed USC, 96-70, in the Pac-12 quarters. They move on a to a meeting with Arizona. UCLA is dangerously close to the cut line. The Bruins have given themselves an opportunity against a team that could punch their ticket. As you can see above, many teams have whiffed on that chance. Winning is important.
Indiana
IU ran all over Northwestern behind a monster game from James Blackmon Jr. to advance to the Big Ten quarterfinals against Maryland. With everyone else losing, Indiana winning big should put it in a good position. Winning the rubber match against the Terps would match their best win of the season and assure them of an NCAA tournament appearance. Losing Hanner Mosquera-Perea to an aggravation of his previous knee injury is bad news. Hopefully for his sake, he will be alright and able to play soon.
Xavier
Beating Butler for the second time this season to reach the 20-win plateau should be enough for Chris Mack’s team to make the tournament. Xavier did have to go to overtime in its contest Thursday night. Its opponent in the Big East semifinals, Georgetown, was also pushed to the limit by Creighton. Xavier swept the Hoyas by double digits during the regular season. A third win over Georgetown would make Xavier a stone cold lock.
Colorado State
Colorado State avoided a landmine in the form of Fresno State to improve to 27-5. The Rams’ profile isn’t that great, but they have a chance against San Diego State Friday night. At worst CSU would be 2-3 against the top 50. At best the Rams would be 4-2 and wrap up the automatic bid. The Rams look pretty impossible to leave out despite the awful SOS.
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Power Conference Bid Thieves Update
Earlier this week, I ran through five teams that could steal bids from the power conferences. Let’s take a look at how those bid thieves have fared.
Connecticut – Won its opening round game in the AAC tournament over South Florida. The Huskies will play Cincinnati at around 9:30 Friday night.
Rhode Island – The Rams don’t start A-10 tournament play until Friday evening. They will be taking on George Washington in a toss-up game.
UNLV – Bounced in its second game of the Mountain West tournament. The Runnin’ Rebels had a lead over San Diego State at halftime, they just couldn’t maintain it in a close loss.
Stanford – This one looked pretty good when Stanford rolled through the first half of its quarterfinal game against Utah. Then the second half happened. Stanford will be tipping off in the NIT some time next week.
Vanderbilt – The longest long shot was bounced in its first SEC tournament game, getting outscored by Tennessee, 20-2, over the final 7:18 of regulation. No single-digit seed that played a double-digit seed won in round two of the SEC tournament.
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With the familiarity of conference play, there end up being some crazy results. To cover some of these quickly, here’s a little feature I’m calling ‘The Concern Scale.’ I’ll run through a few teams whose performances raised my eyebrows a bit and rank them 1-10 in terms of how much I’m concerned they can win games next week — 1 being the lowest, 10 the highest.
Virginia – 4
The more times Virginia plays and the more times the Cavaliers suffer long lulls in their offensive performance, the harder it is to see them running to the Final Four. Their expectations are higher than some of the other teams on this list so they get graded harder. It might not catch up to the Hoos on the first weekend when they play one game against anyone decent, but it could absolutely get them in the Sweet 16. The type of team Virginia would end up playing is someone like Louisville, which just beat them last weekend. Virginia’s defense is great. The Hoos aren’t going to the Final Four if they can’t score for 8 minutes.
West Virginia – 7
This is largely contingent on them not getting Juwan Staten back for the NCAA tournament. Word was that Staten was a game-time decision Thursday. He did not play. West Virginia has gone 1-3 with him out of the lineup. Two of those losses were to Baylor. If the Mountaineers don’t get Staten back, I can’t see them getting out of the first weekend unless they get a great matchup.
Iowa – 2
I solely bring up the Hawkeyes because they shot 26.3 percent in their loss to Penn State. Iowa is slated to be somewhere around a 7 seed so it’s not like the Hawkeyes are being talked about for a deep run. They did just win 6 in a row before their ice game. The only game that was close during their win streak was at Penn State. Maybe Penn State matches up well against them. If you were thinking about picking Iowa in round one, don’t let this result talk you out of it too much.
St John’s – 9
The Red Storm’s 74-57 loss to Providence was so bad that Steve Lavin publicly called himself out for being a bad conference tournament coach. Lavin has also been a bad NCAA tournament coach at St John’s — he’s never won a tournament game there. Some teams are easier to pick against than others. This seems like one of them.
Louisville – 5
The Cardinals were rolling against North Carolina before the Tar Heels threw out a zone defense. The Cardinals ended up taking, and missing, a lot of three pointers to the tune of 4-22. This isn’t the first time a zone has knocked the Cardinals out of their rhythm. So much of the burden falls on Terry Rozier. When he’s not scoring efficiently (20 points on 6-20 shooting Thursday), the Cardinals’ offense looks a mess. If their first game is close, their opponent will zone them late. That part is true. Rick Pitino has some things to figure out in the next week.
Iowa State – 3
If you watched the Texas game, you have to be a bit worried, right? ISU came back just like the Cyclones came back against Oklahoma a few weeks ago. That’s really awesome of them and speaks a lot to their offensive burst. One has to wonder what happens if they fall in a hole they can’t shoot their way out of? They are really good but it’s a concern I have with them.
North Carolina State – 6
If you were starting to buy into the Wolfpack being a team that could be a surprise Sweet 16 team, last night couldn’t have helped your fortitude. Their game with Duke was never close. They had as much of a chance stopping the Duke offense in the first half as you or I, and we weren’t even on the court. The last time N.C. State lost was a blowout loss at Boston College. There is a Jekyll/Hyde vibe that makes N.C. State very confusing.
Georgetown and Notre Dame – 8
Pretty sure everyone on twitter immediately raised the panic flags for Notre Dame and Georgetown as those teams struggled mightily at times Thursday night. The Irish blew a huge lead against Miami, while Georgetown needed Creighton to self destruct to put the birds in a cage. These are a couple of programs that have really struggled with early tournament exits. They could both be eliminated Friday night and no one would be stunned. Both are going to be popular upset picks. Thursday night was a bell that hit even their supporters: In a one-game scenario, both of these teams have holes that are exploitable.
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To round this article out, here are the matchups followed by my analysis for a huge, huge night in college basketball.
Ken Pom favorites in bold.
Bubble teams have the stars next to them because their tournament fates could be as lucky as a shooting star or as fleeting as one. Higher seeded teams are listed first.
AAC
SMU vs East Carolina – noon
*Temple* vs Memphis – 2:20
*Tulsa* vs Houston – 7
Cincinnati vs Connecticut – 9:20
Tulsa and Temple are both close to the cut line. Losses by either would knock them out, or keep them out, of the tournament picture. Tulsa is a pretty heavy favorite over Houston. Tulsa would probably be an underdog to winner of Cincinnati-Connecticut. That’s the most interesting game of the day, maybe even the whole tournament, with Connecticut having home court advantage and needing to win to get the bid. Temple has a challenge against Memphis but really need to make it to the final to feel safe. The Golden Hurricane will probably be rooting on East Carolina very hard.
A-10
*Davidson* vs LaSalle – noon
Richmond vs VCU – 2:30
Dayton vs St Bonaventure – 6:30
Rhode Island vs George Washington – 9
Top seed Davidson probably needs to avoid a loss to LaSalle to feel safer with its tournament life. Dayton and VCU seem pretty safe and are playing for seeding. Rhode Island versus George Washington seems like the most interesting game of the day.
ACC
Virginia vs North Carolina – 7
Duke vs Notre Dame – 9:30
The ACC semifinals always seem to bring it. While there is no bubble drama at all, these should be two highly entertaining games. At least Carolina-Virginia should be entertaining. Considering the beating Duke put on Notre Dame the last time ND stepped foot into North Carolina, that one could be ugly. Four of the top 16 teams in the nation lock up. Of course this is worth watching.
Big 12
Kansas vs Baylor – 7
Iowa State vs Oklahoma – 9:30
It seems like every big game is on near 9:30 on Friday. While not quite as powerful as the ACC matchups, the Big 12 games aren’t a huge step back. They all rank 9-15 on Ken Pom. Iowa State-Oklahoma (part two) was one of the more memorable games of the season with the comeback. Kansas and Iowa State should have major crowd advantages. Both games are pretty much toss-ups, which should make these games a ton of fun. The Big 12 was great to watch this season. You are going to need multiple TVs Friday night. And eyes. Just clone yourself.
Big East
Villanova vs Providence – 7
Georgetown vs *Xavier* – 9:30
Three of the four games between these schools were blowouts. Xavier dominated Georgetown in both meetings. Villanova won a close game at Providence before beating the holy hell out of the Friars. See what I did there? Nova is a pretty big favorite with Georgetown being a slight favorite over Xavier. A win by the Musketeers would seemingly lock up a bid for them if one wasn’t locked up against Butler.
Big Ten
Wisconsin vs Michigan – noon
*Purdue* vs Penn State – 2:30
Maryland vs *Indiana* – 6:30
Michigan State vs Ohio State – 9
The Badgers start their claim towards a number one seed with Michigan. Purdue could have used Iowa to try and lock down a bid, but advancing to the semifinals is probably just as good. The Hoosiers, as mentioned, are looking for one more big win that would make them unquestionably in the Big Dance. Ohio State and Michigan State should just be a fun game. It’s a 51/49 toss-up on Ken Pom. That 9 p.m. tip off zone is going to be unreal.
Mountain West
*Boise State* vs Wyoming – 9
San Diego State vs *Colorado State* – 11:30
The one and two seeds are pretty big favorites. The Broncos are listed as an 11 seed on the Bracket Matrix. Winning tomorrow would probably seal their bid. Colorado State should be in win or lose. San Diego State is playing for seeding. Wyoming is trying to steal a bid. The Cowboys would be a real live-wire if they upset Boise State.
Pac 12
Arizona vs *UCLA* – 9
Oregon vs Utah – 11:30
The odds are very high for a third game between Arizona and Utah. Oregon is considered a lock. That game should be for seed line purposes. As mentioned previously, UCLA really needs to win to strengthen its case. The Bruins have given themselves a chance. They have to cash in. Easier said than done.
SEC
Kentucky vs Florida – 1
LSU vs Auburn – 3:30
Arkansas vs Tennessee – 7
*Georgia* vs South Carolina – 9:30
Maybe the Bulldogs are not as close to the bubble as some, but I’m listing them anyway. All of the upsets have left the tournament bracket looking not exactly strong. The only game that really seems like keeping an eye on is Kentucky versus Florida. That’s about history, not tournament bids or seeds or anything else.
