Preseason predictions are not meant to be taken too seriously. As long as you view them in a spirit of fun, they offer an enjoyable way to ease into the season. From a writer’s viewpoint or through a prognosticator’s eyes, a preseason prediction becomes serious — and somewhat important — only if said writer or prognosticator makes a really big deal out of it.
If Writer A says, “I stake my reputation on Preseason Prediction X,” then fans and other interested parties should crow/gloat/harrumph if that prediction turns out to be as accurate as Lucas Duda’s throw to home plate in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the World Series.
Generally, however, preseason predictions are about having fun. Let’s gaze into the crystal ball, as Ryan Palencer joins me to think about the coming months… and March, and the Final Four in April.
We’re not going to predict the full Final Four, because that’s a fool’s errand. We need to see the bracket sheets first. However, Ryan and I will offer at least one Final Four prediction.
Neither one of us will stake our reputations on it.
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BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR 2016
RYAN PALENCER
Boldest prediction of the regular season:
Wichita State will finish the regular season in the top 10.
This has to be the season for Wichita State. The window is closing for this extremely talented and accomplished group, which is nearing the end of its run — not as a program, but this specific collection of players. Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker have reached their senior seasons as two of the best players in school history. It will be hard to top the Final Four run a few years back, but that is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Gregg Marshall will have some trouble matching what this four-year dynasty has achieved in the mid-major ranks.
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Boldest prediction for the conference tournaments:
Someone other than UNC or Duke will win the ACC tournament.
With the depth in the ACC, several teams can get hot and contend for the automatic bid to the Big Dance. With the recent additions of teams to the conference, the ACC is loaded with floaters who can make some noise in a nearly week-long tournament. While Duke and North Carolina will be the heavy favorites, the likes of Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State, and even North Carolina State all have the looks of contenders.
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Boldest prediction for the NCAA tournament:
Ben Simmons solidifies himself as the top pick in the draft.
Simmons is the top-ranked freshman this season, and that generally spells one and done in college. LSU will draw a lot of scrutiny, playing in a much-improved SEC. Simmons will give scouts a chance to evaluate him against the likes of Kentucky a couple of times during the season. However, it is in March when these players really make their money. LSU is going to field a loaded team that has created high expectations this coming March. Simmons will be the one who must lead his teammates.
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Boldest prediction for the Final Four: It will feature a mid-major team.
With the amount of parity in college basketball, another mid-major will have the chemistry to get back to the Final Four. Why not this year? Wichita State has the look of a team that is primed for a big run. With the exodus of Shaka Smart to Texas, you never know when a major conference team makes a run at Gregg Marshall. The Big Ten and ACC are loaded this season, but outside of that, the other major conferences are nothing special. The recipe is set for another mid-major Final Four… for the Shockers or another lurker in the bracket.
MATT ZEMEK
Boldest prediction of the regular season:
North Carolina will finish third in the ACC.
There is no more overrated team in college basketball than the Tar Heels, who could still produce a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight this season — given that they made the second weekend of the NCAA tournament last March — but are not cut out for the rigors of the ACC.
North Carolina is that rare blue-chip program at which the current roster is comprised of a lot of upperclassmen. Some will say the Tar Heels have plenty of experience and leadership. I am more inclined to say that North Carolina doesn’t have the polished high-end talent of a true national championship contender.
Duke and Virginia will finish ahead of the Tar Heels in the ACC. As much as I hold Roy Williamss in high regard as a coach, he just hasn’t pulled in top-shelf talent since his 2012 team suffered the wrenching and unfortunate injury to Kendall Marshall, an injury which likely prevented UNC from making the Final Four and playing Kentucky for the whole ball of wax.
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Boldest prediction for the conference tournaments:
The Pac-12 tournament will produce a surprise automatic bid, defined as a bid that represents a team’s only possible path to the NCAA Tournament.
This has happened before in the Pac-12, and it’s in place to happen this season. Roster turnover at Arizona and freshmen leaders at California mean that the Pac-12 Tournament will skew younger in March. It’s the perfect opportunity for a team with an NIT resume to unexpectedly make its way into the Dance.
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Boldest prediction for the NCAA tournament:
Wofford will win a game.
The Terriers are one of the best mid-majors in terms of annual consistency. They’re not in Wichita State’s league, but they have the Southern Conference on lockdown. With seven core rotational players returning, they have a great chance to win the first NCAA tournament game in program history. It says here that they’ll break through.
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Boldest prediction for the Final Four: Virginia makes it.
If Virginia can, you know, NOT DRAW MICHIGAN STATE IN THE EAST, it might be able to move on up to the Final Four. Surely, Tom Izzo won’t ruin Tony Bennett’s summer for a third straight year… because surely, the bracket won’t pair these teams in yet another East Region game.
