Countless recreational gamblers are making their annual pilgrimage to the desert this week, ready to lay down cash they will likely never see again on basketball games played by 19-year-olds they probably couldn’t pick out of a lineup. If that sounds like your idea of a good time, might I suggest these five wagers in the first round on Thursday and Friday.
Texas (-1.5) versus Butler
As I discussed with Aaron Torres of FOXSports.com in a podcast earlier this week, the problem for Butler here is that the Bulldogs’ primary strength, rebounding, is negated by Texas’ size. I don’t feel particularly comfortable betting on a team coached by Rick Barnes, but I suspect BU is a little overseeded.
The pick: Texas covers in an ugly, awful game.
Coastal Carolina (+19.5) vs. Wisconsin
I may not know what a Chanticleer is, but I do know that Cliff Ellis has a veteran squad that played Virginia pretty tough a year ago as a 16 seed. This year’s team is even better (148th nationally in 2015 versus 213 in 2014, according to kenpom.com).
The Badgers’ distinct height advantage here is worrisome, and no one should harbor any illusions that Wisky is going to lose this game. This spread is a shade too high, though.
The pick: Wisconsin-Madison by not enough.
Oklahoma State (+1.5) vs. Oregon
Look, I’d be the first to admit that there’s not a lot to like about this OSU team. Since Valentine’s Day, the Cowboys have dropped six of seven against the number, a run that includes outright losses to TCU and Texas Tech. They have possibly the most overmatched head coach from the major conferences sitting on their bench. They are putrid rebounders.
Frankly, though, I’ve changed my outlook for this game since I first saw the draw on Sunday. The Ducks have a couple nice wins over Utah this year, but that’s really about it in a lackluster year for the Pac-12. They got run out of the building three times by Arizona, losing each game by an average of 27 points.
In other words, there’s not much to like about UO, either. Given that the Pokes lost in the first round last year as a favorite, the motivation angle swings this one for me.
The pick: OSU outright.
UCLA (+3.5) vs. SMU
The selection committee did the Mustangs no favors with this draw. SMU played three games in the American conference tournament last weekend in Connecticut, flew back to Dallas after the final on Sunday night and now heads out to Louisville for one of the earlier tips on Thursday.
I won’t argue with anyone who says the Bruins don’t belong in this year’s big dance. From a situational standpoint, though, they have a big edge.
The pick: Take the points.
Georgetown (-7.5) vs. Eastern Washington
On its face, this stinks for the Hoyas. They’re getting shipped out to Portland for a late tip against a team playing close to home. And let’s face it, no one will mistake these Hoyas for the ghosts of Othella Harrington and Victor Page.
Yet, the Eagles are one of those ever suspicious public underdogs. According to Wagerline, 57 percent of spread bets in this game are coming in on EWU. ESPN has it around and 80-20 split in favor of the Eagles.
That almost demands a fade.
The pick: Hoyas handily.
