Saturday, a lot of people are going to be drawn to LSU-Tennessee, a bubble game made prominent by the Tigers’ near-upset of No. 1 Kentucky.
Others are going to focus on Ole Miss, a team trying to firm up its status as an NCAA tournament group, hosting Arkansas in the Tad Pad.
Still others will look at Colorado State-San Diego State, because that contest affects the top of the Mountain West standings.
Seton Hall’s bubble-licious battle against Providence will draw national notice due to Jaren Sina’s abrupt departure from the Pirates.
St. John’s-Xavier will be a big deal in New York, as the Red Storm try to improve their tournament prospects against a brand-name opponent from Cincinnati.
Michigan State, finding itself in the rare position of being a bubble team in the middle of February, will be a major point of focus on Saturday when it faces Ohio State at high noon.
If you think you’ve covered the list of the major bubble games — especially in the power conferences — there are a few others to keep track of, one of them in the second-largest metropolitan area in these United States.
Yes, at 3:05 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, FOX will show a Pac-12 game between the Oregon Ducks and the UCLA Bruins from Pauley Pavilion. It won’t be a sexy game, and it won’t be shown on the ESPN family of networks, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be hugely important.
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The Ducks and Bruins are flying (well, at least the Ducks are…) under the national radar this season. Arizona and Utah are acknowledged as the only two Final Four threats in the Pac-12, and due to the downturn at Stanford over the past few weeks, the Wildcats and Utes are the only two NCAA tournament locks in a conference that has struggled in recent seasons.
Last year, the Pac-12 did well to get three teams in the Sweet 16 (Arizona, UCLA and Stanford), but the league — similar to this season — featured only two teams that posed any sort of threat to the powers that be. Last year — with Arizona being a 1 seed and UCLA a 4 seed — marked the first time since 2009 that any Pac-12 team was seeded fourth or higher. It marked the first time since 2008 that two Pac-12 teams were seeded fourth or higher in the same NCAA tournament.
This season, you’re also going to see two Pac-12 teams seeded in the top four (Arizona and Utah), but no other teams in the league are assured of making the field of 68. Moreover, the other teams outside of Arizona and Utah were supposed to be better than they’ve been. UCLA, given its reputation, should not be muddling along, but that’s what the Bruins have done this season. It’s therefore not a surprise that only 6,346 fans attended UCLA’s win over Oregon State on Wednesday, and why you’re not likely to see a packed house in Pauley on Saturday. All of these reasons help explain why Oregon-UCLA feels like such a secondary game on a national scale… even though it’s vitally important to the teams involved.
Let’s now stress that last point, though: This game IS a massive one for both teams, chiefly because it starts an eight-day period which is crucial for these schools.
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Oregon, following this game at UCLA, comes home to face Colorado and then Utah. If the Ducks can own the next week, they’ll abruptly move from obscure, hanging-near-the-cut-line team to “likely in the field.”
The reality of the situation is similar for UCLA. If the Bruins can take care of Oregon, they’d then go to the desert to face the Arizona schools. If UCLA can go 3-0 over the course of the next eight days, it would also — like the Ducks — vault itself from “bubbledom” to “inside the candy store.” It would take a March collapse to keep the Bruins out of the field if they can beat their next three opponents, starting with Oregon.
Neither Oregon nor UCLA has ever caught fire this season, at least if you define “catching fire” as playing well for at least two weeks against quality competition. The Ducks have won four in a row, but two of those wins have been tense, uneven survival acts against Arizona State and Washington.
The Bruins enjoyed a fantastic one-week period when they beat Utah, Colorado and Stanford in the space of eight days, but they then faltered at Cal on February 7.
It’s safe to say that after last season — in which Oregon gave Wisconsin a very good run in the NCAA tournament round of 32, and UCLA reached the Sweet 16 — the Ducks and Bruins have not impressed anyone this season. If there’s no buzz for this game, the two teams can only look in the mirror and identify what they’ve failed to do. However, with the past serving as prelude, Oregon and UCLA begin the most important and defining stretches of their season on Saturday. The Ducks and Bruins stand in each other’s way on the road to Bracketville.
It’s understandable if you don’t want to talk about two wholly unremarkable teams. However, when the tensions of mid-February college basketball bubble their way to the surface on Saturday, you might find yourself drawn to a half-filled arena in Westwood.
Two seasons could very well acquire the moment that will define a four-month-long March into Madness.
