One of the biggest topics surrounding Championship Week is bid thieves, or — for people who don’t like that term — surprising autobid winners. These are teams that don’t have a case for an at-large NCAA tournament bid; they can only make it if they win their conference tournament. What we are going to do in this post is run through the power conference tournaments — yes, I counted the A-10, AAC and Mountain West — and see who the potential bid thieves are. These are the teams Bubble Nation should fear and heartily root against.
Some leagues are left out, namely the ACC, Big East, Big 12 and Big Ten. The Big East and Big 12 have the same bid thief problem: There are too many teams considered locks to have a reasonable thief. There are 7 total teams out of the 20 that could be considered thieves. Over half of them will be knocked out because of opening round games. There just isn’t a reasonable case to be made. Be sure to throw this in my face, of course, when TCU and Creighton win the league tournaments.
As for the ACC and Big Ten, there is a problem with heavy favorites and the multitudes of bubble teams. Would it really be a theft if Miami or Indiana or Illinois won a tournament title? Not really. All of those teams are squarely on the bubble. They wouldn’t be knocking anyone out as much as locking themselves in. What we are looking for in this post are teams that have no chance at all for an at-large bid, coming into your town and bursting some bubbles.
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AAC
Connecticut Huskies
Connecticut is going to be the focus of every bubble team this weekend. The Huskies are 17-13, three one-point losses away from having their NCAA tournament fortunes reversed. While Temple and Tulsa are each on the bubble, neither would be a thief the way UConn would be. The only teams safe for the NCAA tournament are Cincinnati and SMU. Both of those teams have lost at the XL Center in Hartford. The XL Center is hosting the AAC tournament.
The odds break very well for the Huskies. They should be a slam dunk to drop 11 seed South Florida on Thursday night. That would bring on a quarterfinal matchup with Cincinnati. While the Bearcats have been playing good ball as of late, they would be facing the Huskies in a true road game. As mentioned, Cincinnati dropped a game at UConn earlier this season. Tulsa, the two seed, was housed by the Huskies a month ago.
The teams UConn would want to avoid, namely the ones that swept them (Temple and Memphis), are all on the other side of the bracket. The odds are in UConn’s favor, as they are second only to SMU in the Team Rankings predictor. We saw Memphis not take advantage of its home-court situation in last season’s AAC tournament, losing to Connecticut in its opening game. The Huskies get a lead-in to their huge game with Cincinnati, which could help. UConn will probably be slight favorites against the Bearcats and Tulsa as well. This is a team to watch if your squad is near the cut line.
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Atlantic 10
Rhode Island Rams
Unlike the ACC teams that need to win out, the A-10 format favors Rhode Island. While it’s the exact same format as the ACC, the Rams have landed the 3 seed, which grants them a bye until the quarterfinals. The opponent should be George Washington, another long shot that could steal a bid. The Rams are on the same side of the bracket as Dayton and the opposite side of Davidson, VCU and Richmond.
Rhode Island has a pretty good chance to make the A-10 final. The odds aren’t completely in the Rams’ favor with Dayton being their potential semifinal opponent, as well as an opening game featuring a potential toss-up against George Washington. One thing absolutely going the Rams’ way is that they have one of the best defenses in the country. URI’s defense ranks 12th in Ken Pom. Dan Hurley’s crew easily had the best defense in the course of A-10 play. Defense doesn’t necessarily win championships, but it puts you in great position to do so.
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Mountain West
UNLV Rebels
The Rebs struggled through a disappointing 17-14 season. There is a huge similarity to UNLV’s fate and that of Connecticut. Both teams get boosts by hosting their conference tournaments. The MWC tournament is always in Vegas, which seems to always give UNLV a big shot at doing something special. While the Rebels are on the tougher side of the bracket, the home-court advantage they have is huge.
Assuming they defeat Nevada, UNLV gets a home game against San Diego State in the quarterfinals. UNLV played the Aztecs very hard this season, losing by two in the last meeting. UNLV lost to the 3 seed Colorado State — a possible semifinal opponent — by a point on the road. Both of those games would see UNLV as underdogs, but not gigantic ones. There is a good chance that UNLV could spring an upset or two. Making the title game in front of your own crowd? That’s a roll of the dice the Rebels would take. You know people in Las Vegas are willing to gamble a little bit (if not a lot more).
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Pac-12
Stanford Cardinal
Talk about ending the season with a total thud. Stanford lost three in a row, 5 of 7 and 7 of 10 to close the season. The Cardinal torpedoed from 15-5 to 18-12. That has knocked the Cardinal off of all but one bracket on the bracket matrix. That’s not really a great thing.
What is a great thing is Stanford’s draw. It gets Washington in round one, which should be a win. That would bring on Utah, the 3 seed, in the quarterfinals. While Utah is a great team, the Utes are not playing their best basketball. There is a chance of taking them down and completely opening up the bracket. The Utes are the second choice in the projections behind Arizona, which is on the other side of the bracket. This helps Stanford, because maybe the Cardinal might not have to take them down in the final — UCLA could be there instead for the right to get an autobid. While Oregon is a great story as the 2 seed, the Ducks’ odds aren’t really much better than Stanford’s. There is a bid to be taken if this team can put it together for four straight days.
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SEC
Vanderbilt Commodores
First things first: Yeah Kentucky is a gigantic, gigantic favorite to win. Ken Pom’s log5 projections don’t have Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss or LSU as the second favorite in the SEC, it has Vandy. The tournament is in Nashville, which helps with the odds. That doesn’t hide the fact that Vanderbilt ended the regular season on a five-game winning streak. Vandy won 8 of 10 to close the season. The Commodores were the opposite of Stanford. Eight of the Commodores’ 12 losses came by one possession. That’s pretty rough.
What’s not terribly rough is the SEC draw. Vandy draws Tennessee first. The Dores are a pretty big favorite on Ken Pom. That would lead them to a quarterfinal game with Arkansas. If you know anything about Arkansas basketball, it’s that Road Arkansas is definitely a thing. Being the 7 seed is such a huge advantage over being the 8 in this tournament. Ask Florida which seed it would rather be.
Should Vanderbilt get past the Hogs, a semifinal game against Ole Miss or Georgia would await. Vandy hammered Ole Miss on the road to close the regular season. The best thing this team has going for it is that it’s playing very well. Actually, the best thing is that it is not on Kentucky’s side of the bracket. Kentucky is probably going to win the whole thing. The Wildcats might not play who you think in the final, however.
By the way: When Kentucky won the national title in 2012, what team beat UK in the SEC tournament final? Oh, yeah, that’s right — Vanderbilt.
