A tradition unlike any other: Single conference-tournament results unleashing an explosion of debate about No. 1 seeds.
No, that’s not Jim Nantz — that’s just reality. Every year, there’s at least one conference tournament result, typically a quarterfinal or semifinal, which ignites a debate about the No. 1 seeds in the upcoming NCAA tournament. Friday night, we received two such results, both in the ACC tournament semifinals, as Virginia and Duke — firmly on the one line heading into the week — both tumbled out of Greensboro.
The questions flew fast and furious across #CollegeBasketballTwitter:
Is Wisconsin now a 1 seed?
Can Kansas get a top seed with a win over Iowa State in the Big 12 final?
Can Villanova now get a 1 seed in the East instead of having to settle for the 1 in the West?
Will Virginia be a 2 seed?
Everyone has an opinion on these questions, but the purpose of this piece is not to answer questions so much as lend context to them. You might think that a given outcome is preferable for your team, but the biggest point to remember in these hours before Selection Sunday’s big announcement is that seeds, in isolation, mean relatively little. You want to have the right seed in conjunction with the right regional placement and the right teams in your bracket.
Selection and seeding are certainly important, but as the cases of Connecticut and Wichita State showed us last year, BRACKETING is just as important to the larger process of shaping the NCAA tournament… and when it is done poorly, it carries a huge impact on the next three weeks.
With this in mind, let’s raise the truly important questions about the top eight teams in the country in relation to NCAA tournament seeding. The eight teams that will occupy the top two seed lines on Selection Sunday have to be wondering not just where they’ll be seeded, but with whom. That last detail — which teams accompany each other in the four regions? — is what fans (or haters) of various schools should be most interested in right now.
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On Saturday, Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, and Wisconsin will all play. (Kentucky will, too… and beat Auburn by 50 billion more points.) Kansas plays Iowa State, a team that’s going to be a top-4 seed in the NCAA tournament. The other three teams — Nova, Zona and Wisconsin — will not face opponents nearly as credentialed as Iowa State.
Naturally, if Villanova, Arizona, or Wisconsin lose, the seeding order could be shaken up. One doesn’t expect any of those things to happen, but if we see a big upset, one or both of the top two seed lines should experience some form of upheaval. The interesting team here is Kansas. Since Iowa State is a formidable opponent, what could the Jayhawks gain with a win in Kansas City?
While you ponder that question, let’s now look at the top two seed lines in a more expansive way:
While we process the significance of Duke’s and Virginia’s losses on Friday night, we’re left with the realization that there are six teams with legitimate claims to a No. 1 seed: Kentucky, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, and Kansas. Arizona tossed in too many bad losses to be a top seed. Wildcat fans should be realistic in acknowledging that. Gonzaga doesn’t have the high-end wins for a top seed. The Zags needed to avoid a loss in the stretch run of the season in order to have a reasonable claim for a top seed.
The key is to steer the discussion in a meaningful direction. For some, the most important question concerns the top seeds, especially in the four-team cluster involving Duke, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Kansas (should the Jayhawks win the Big 12 final). For me, though, it’s not about the seeds. It’s about the bracketing — both the regional assignments and who gets paired in a 1-2 seeding combination.
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Let’s start with Kansas, then.
What if the Jayhawks beat Iowa State? Should Kansas — being a team in the Midwestern United States — be sent to the Midwest region?
Typically, a power-conference team — should it win the regular-season and tournament championships in its conference — stays in its home region for the NCAAs . However, if Kansas beats Iowa State, the Jayhawks — recently a team that looked like the weakest 2 seed on the board — would certainly be one of the stronger 2 seeds. It would not be fair to place KU with Kentucky in the Midwest, in much the same way that it would not be fair to put Wisconsin — like Kansas, one of the stronger 2 seeds — with Kentucky as well. Kansas and Wisconsin are Midwestern teams, but the need to create a balanced bracket demands (or at least suggests) that both the Jayhawks and Badgers should be shipped to other regions.
There are two possible compromises in terms of handling Kansas in the bracket: If KU wins the Big 12 tournament, the committee could send the Jayhawks West as the 1 seed. An alternative is to send them South as the 2 seed. Since Houston is the regional site for the South, that’s a close geographical placement for the Jayhawks. The committee could make Kansas the 2 in the South and Wisconsin the 1 in the West. That would achieve a balanced bracket. So would making Wisconsin the 2 in the South and Kansas the 1 in the West.
This brings up Gonzaga, though. The Zags are hoping for Oregon to upset Arizona in the Pac-12 final. That might be Gonzaga’s last-ditch “Hail Mary” hope to vault past the Wildcats for the 2 seed in the West. That’s what Gonzaga and Arizona have been competing for this season — not a top seed, but the ability to stay West and play in front of more fans in the West Regional in Los Angeles. Being a 2 in the West would trump being a 1 seed anywhere else for Gonzaga and Arizona. If Arizona beats Oregon, then, Gonzaga will have to be shipped… but where?
Since Gonzaga is the weakest 2 seed, the initial answer — the one most faithful to bracketing principles of putting the weakest 2 in the same region as the strongest 1 seed — would be to slot the Zags in the Midwest, with Kentucky. However, the Selection Committee’s repeated insistence on using geography to bracket teams (and slot them into their various regions) would seem to mean that either Kansas or Wisconsin will be given the undesirable 2 seed in the Midwest, the slot no one wants to have on Selection Sunday. This means that putting Gonzaga in the South — with Houston as the regional site — makes the most sense.
This leads to our final set of bracket dominoes.
Let’s play around with the idea that Gonzaga is the 2 in the South. Under these circumstances — keeping in mind our central point about bracketing being more important than seeding — being the 1 seed in the South might be the biggest bracket prize on Selection Sunday.
Being the 1 seed in the West and possibly playing Arizona as the 2 in Los Angeles in a regional final? Good luck with that.
Being the 1 seed in the East and possibly getting one of the ACC’s two top teams in Syracuse, the regional site? Have fun with that one.
Being a 1 seed in either the West or East is not likely to carry nearly as much value as the 1 in the South. Duke and Virginia might both find that being one notch LOWER in the 1-68 seed list (behind Villanova, perhaps) on Selection Sunday actually gave them the BEST bracket path in the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin might love the idea of escaping Kentucky, but if the Badgers had to play Arizona in Southern California yet again, they might not be thrilled about having to basically repeat what they did to make the Final Four in 2014 (though they’d still be happy about steering clear of Big Blue).
You should be able to see the larger point at work here: You might think that being a certain seed, especially in a certain region, is what you’re after. You might think that being higher on the 1 line is a reward, and that being a 1 seed in the West is better than being a 2 seed in any non-Kentucky region. However, the pieces fit more precisely than that. A high seed carries value only to the extent that it provides a better draw and a better path. If you have a 1 seed but a miserably difficult bracket — hello, 2014 Wichita State — this conversation surrounding top seeds becomes rather hollow in an instant.
The discussion surrounding the No. 1 seeds is raging across America right now, as it always does in the 36 hours before the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Just remember that while seeding matters, the larger process of bracketing — regional placements, geography, the works — matters a whole lot more.
