March is just around the corner as teams make their final push for a spot in the NCAA tournament. The field is once again 68 and for teams on the bubble, the time is now to make a run at a spot in the big dance as we look at which teams are currently in the field and which teams are out.
Teams in all caps are projected to be conference champions. Conference winners will account for 32 of the 68 spots in the field. In addition to the 32 projected champions, 25 other teams are currently considered to be solidly in, leaving just 11 spots for teams on the bubble.
The following projections account for all games through Thursday, February 12th. Our next projection will be next Friday, February 20th, accounting for all games played through February 19th.
Criteria
“Solidly in” means a team would have no doubts about whether or not it would be in the field of 68 were the NCAA tournament to start today.
Key Wins are victories over any team currently projected to be solidly in the field or any projected conference champion with a top 100 RPI.
Bad Losses are losses to teams currently not even on the bubble or projected conference champions with a RPI below 150.
ACC
Projected conference champions in CAPS
Solidly In: VIRGINIA, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville
On the Bubble:
Clemson (14-10, 6-6 ACC)
RPI: 90
Key Wins: Arkansas
Bad Losses: Winthrop, Gardner Webb, Rutgers, Florida State
As of Now: Out. The Tigers missed a huge opportunity earlier in the week against Notre Dame.
Miami (15-9, 5-6 ACC)
RPI: 66
Key Wins: Duke, Illinois
Bad Losses: Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
As of Now: In. The Hurricanes have four bad losses, but a 9-point win against Illinois and a 16-point victory at Duke makes Miami the last team in.
N.C. State (14-11, 5-7 ACC)
RPI: 65
Key Wins: Louisiana Tech, Duke
Bad Losses: Wake Forest
As of Now: Out. The Wolfpack are in freefall, losing five of six.
Pittsburgh (16-9, 5-6 ACC)
RPI: 59
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Hawaii, Virginia Tech
As of Now: Out. A lack of a signature win and lackluster non-conference schedule makes Pittsburgh the second team out.
AAC
Solidly In: SMU
On the Bubble:
CINCINNATI, OH – NOVEMBER 19: Octavius Ellis #2 of the Cincinnati Bearcats tries to fire up the crowd after a basket against the Morehead State Eagles during the first half of the game at Fifth Third Arena on November 19, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Cincinnati (17-7, 8-4 AAC)
RPI: 29
Key Wins: San Diego State, SMU (twice)
Bad Losses: Nebraska, East Carolina
As of Now: In. Cincinnati benefits from a strong RPI and tough non-conference schedule.
Connecticut (14-9, 6-4 AAC)
RPI: 87
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Yale, Houston
As of Now: Out. The defending national champions have yet to notch a signature victory.
Memphis (14-10, 6-5 AAC)
RPI: 97
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Tulane, East Carolina
As of Now: Out. Memphis must finish strong just to stay on the bubble.
Temple (18-7, 9-3 AAC)
RPI: 32
Key Wins: Kansas
Bad Losses: St. Joe’s, UNLV
As of Now: In. The Owls’ domination of Kansas is paying dividends as we speak.
Tulsa (17-7, 10-2 AAC)
RPI: 45
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: SE Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts
As of Now: Out. Tulsa has done well in conference play, but performed poorly outside The American.
Atlantic 10
Solidly In: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, Dayton
On the Bubble:
Davidson (17-6, 7-4 A-10)
RPI: 75
Key Wins: Dayton
Bad Losses: St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. A lackluster out-of-conference schedule and only one quality win makes the NCAA tourney an uphill climb for Davidson.
George Washington (17-7, 7-4 A-10)
RPI: 67
Key Wins: Wichita State, Dayton
Bad Losses: La Salle, Duquesne
As of Now: Out. The Colonials have the strongest bubble resume of any A-10 team, but that isn’t enough as of now.
UMASS (15-9, 8-3 A-10)
RPI: 39
Key Wins: Dayton
Bad Losses: St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. The remaining schedule for UMass is manageable, though.
Rhode Island (16-6, 8-3 A-10)
RPI: 71
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. The Rams are still looking for that first signature victory.
St. Bonaventure (13-9, 6-5 A-10)
RPI: 127
Key Wins: Virginia Commonwealth
Bad Losses: Siena, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Delaware, Richmond, La Salle
As of Now: Out. The Bonnies are a real longshot for an NCAA bid at this point.
Big 12
Solidly In: KANSAS, Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas
On the Bubble:
The Big 12 bubble is currently empty. Kansas State has played its way off the bubble and would have to get some work done just to regain consideration.
Big East
Solidly In: VILLANOVA, Butler, Georgetown, Providence
On the Bubble:
Seton Hall (15-9, 5-7 Big East)
RPI: 69
Key Wins: Villanova
Bad Losses: DePaul (twice), Marquette
As of Now: Out. After a hot start, the Pirates have lost six of eight.
St. John’s (16-8, 5-6 Big East)
RPI: 51
Key Wins: Providence (twice)
Bad Losses: DePaul
As of Now: In. St. John’s is the next to last team in.
Xavier (16-9, 7-6 Big East)
RPI: 34
Key Wins: Georgetown (twice), Providence, Murray State, Stephen F. Austin
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, DePaul, Creighton
As of Now: In. A strong RPI has the Musketeers feeling good about their chances.
Big Ten
Solidly In: WISCONSIN, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa
On the Bubble:
ANN ARBOR, MI – JANUARY 10: Andre Hollins #1 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who led Minnesota with 18 points, walks off the court after a 62-57 loss to the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Arena on January 10, 2015 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
Minnesota (16-9, 5-7 Big Ten)
RPI: 68
Key Wins: Iowa, Illinois
Bad Losses: Michigan, Nebraska
As of Now: Out. Minnesota picked up a big win on Thursday over Iowa, but still sits on the outside looking in.
Penn State (15-10, 3-9 Big Ten)
RPI: 92
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Charlotte, Rutgers, Michigan
As of Now: Out. Penn State is clinging to a spot on the bubble.
Purdue (16-9, 8-4 Big Ten)
RPI: 70
Key Wins: Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State
Bad Losses: Vanderbilt, Gardner Webb, North Florida
As of Now: In. The Boilermakers have three wins over ranked teams in their last six games.
Mountain West
Solidly In: SAN DIEGO STATE, Colorado State
On the Bubble:
Boise State (18-6, 8-3 MW)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: Colorado State, San Diego State
Bad Losses: Loyola-Illinois, Utah State
As of Now: In. The Broncos have won eight in a row and own a top 40 RPI
Wyoming (19-6, 8-4 MW)
RPI: 74
Key Wins: Colorado State (twice)
Bad Losses: Air Force
As of Now: Out. The Cowboys are currently out, but the remaining schedule is favorable. Getting Larry Nance back has to happen sooner rather than later.
Pac-12
Solidly In: ARIZONA, Utah
On the Bubble:
California (16-9, 6-6 Pac-12)
RPI: 98
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: CS-Bakersfield, Washington State, USC, Arizona State
As of Now: Out. California has a brutal remaining schedule, but that’s also an opportunity to enhance its resume.
Oregon (18-7, 8-4 Pac-12)
RPI: 52
Key Wins: Illinois
Bad Losses: Michigan, Washington State
As of Now: In. Oregon has few bad losses, and that feature in the Ducks’ profile is augmented by three wins over other Pac-12 bubble teams.
Oregon State (16-8, 7-5 Pac-12)
RPI: 72
Key Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Auburn, Quinnipiac, Arizona State
As of Now: Out. Oregon State is having its best season in years, but a low RPI and three bad losses have the Beavers on the outside looking in.
Stanford (16-8, 7-5 Pac-12)
RPI: 40
Key Wins: Wofford, Texas
Bad Losses: DePaul, Washington State
As of Now: In. The Cardinal have a respectable RPI and played a very strong non-conference schedule.
UCLA (15-10, 7-5 Pac-12)
RPI: 41
Key Wins: Stanford (twice), Utah
Bad Losses: Colorado
As of Now: In. UCLA benefits from a solid RPI and only one bad loss.
Washington (14-9, 3-8 Pac-12)
RPI: 85
Key Wins: San Diego State, Oklahoma, Oregon
Bad Losses: Stony Brook, Washington State
As of Now: Out. Despite a dismal conference record, the Huskies still have a fighting chance because of their non-conference wins.
SEC
Solidly In: KENTUCKY, Arkansas, Ole Miss
On the Bubble:
Alabama (15-9, 5-6 SEC)
RPI: 63
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: South Carolina, Florida
As of Now: Out. The Crimson Tide have had opportunities, but still lack an impressive win.
Georgia (16-7, 7-4 SEC)
RPI: 22
Key Wins: Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, South Carolina
As of Now: In. The Bulldogs are much-improved and their top 25 RPI currently has them in the field.
COLUMBIA, MO – JANUARY 08: Jarell Martin #1 of the LSU Tigers grabs a rebound during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Mizzou Arena on January 8, 2015 in Columbia, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
LSU (17-7, 6-5 SEC)
RPI: 57
Key Wins: West Virginia, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Missouri, Mississippi State, Auburn
As of Now: Out. LSU is the first team out after letting a huge opportunity slip away against top-ranked Kentucky.
Tennessee (14-9, 6-5 SEC)
RPI: 83
Key Wins: Butler, Arkansas
Bad Losses: Marquette, Mississippi State
As of Now: Out. Tennessee has a huge bubble game coming up against LSU.
Texas A&M (16-7, 7-4 SEC)
RPI: 43
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Kansas State
As of Now: Out. However, Texas A&M will have opportunities to make its case as the regular season winds down.
Others
Solidly In: Wichita State
On the Bubble: BYU, Green Bay, Old Dominion, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, UTEP, Western Kentucky
Bubble Teams Currently In: None
Bubble Teams Currently Out: BYU, Green Bay, Old Dominion, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, UTEP, Western Kentucky
Overview: None of the mid-majors on the bubble are currently in, but Green Bay and Old Dominion have very good shots at winning their conferences. UTEP, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s and Western Kentucky lack solid victories outside of their conferences, and BYU has too many bad losses in WCC play.
Notable Projected Conference Champions: William & Mary (CAA), Louisiana Tech (C-USA), Valparaiso (Horizon), Harvard (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Bowling Green (MAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Murray State (OVC), Wofford (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Gonzaga (WCC)
*RPI numbers via Yahoo Sports
