Coming off Wednesday night’s loss to Arizona State and Stanford’s recent loss to Colorado, the Pac-12 is in danger of getting as many teams in the NCAA Tournament as the Missouri Valley Conference: two.
While Arizona and Utah are locks to get in, there is not another team in the conference which can feel confident about where it stands. UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State and Cal all have at least 16 wins on the season, but not much ground to stand on.
Prior to Wednesday, UCLA had to be feeling fairly good after winning five of six games. However, the Arizona State loss, combined with failures against Cal, Colorado, Oregon, and Oregon State on the road has to have the Bruins shaking. The committee certainly looks at how a squad does on neutral floors and on the road, and Steve Alford’s crew has simply not gotten it done.
However, the Bruins travel to Arizona on Saturday in what could be a make-or-break game. The remaining schedule against Washington, Washington State, and USC does not have much firepower. This means that if UCLA fails to upset the Wildcats on Saturday, it will have to make some noise in the Pac-12 tournament to get in — “noise” could generally be defined as two wins, minimum, if not three.
The other big Saturday bubble game in the conference is Cal at Stanford. Cal had looked like a flatlining squad prior to winning five games in a row. However, the 15-point loss at Utah last Sunday brought some of those doubts back. The Bears really need this road win to regain those positive feelings, but they also get one more crack at Arizona, Oregon and Oregon State before the season is out to win bubble leverage.
On the other hand, Stanford is trending in the other direction. Last year’s Sweet 16 Cardinal squad seems to be a distant memory. After a strong start, Stanford has lost four of its last five games. After its matchup with Cal, the Cardinal still have Oregon State, Oregon, and Arizona on the slate. They can play their way in, but if they do not right the ship soon, some of those contests could get ugly. That would not woo the Selection Committee, to say the least.
Another upcoming bubble game to watch in the Pac-12 is Utah at Oregon on Sunday. With the Utes entrenched in the field of 68, they are playing for seeding and the prestige of a Pac-12 regular season title. The Utes’ bubble relevance comes in the fact that they also give an opportunity for quality wins to fellow conference opponents. That very reality, however, means Utah can dash some March dreams for Oregon, which desperately needs to knock off the Utes in order to improve a mediocre profile.
The moral of the story is simple for the Pac-12 this weekend: either show up, make some noise, or enjoy the NIT.
