It felt a little bit like March on the final day of February. We are now fully immersed in questions and debates pertaining to NCAA tournament selection, seeding and bracketing. The one-bid conferences are about to start their tournaments, with regular-season championships having been decided. There’s a lot of ground to cover in college basketball. Here are the five stories that stood above the others on a highly significant Saturday:
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5 – NORTH CAROLINA STATE AND MIAMI MAKE LIFE VERY COMPLICATED FOR THE ACC
The biggest thing to remember about this time of year — when bracketology is a daily part of a college basketball fan’s discourse — is that your team’s bubble status cannot be viewed in isolation. In other words, you can’t really say, “Well, if this team has X number of top-50 wins and it’s in place Y in the ACC, it’s gotta be in (or out).” Things don’t work that way, at least not for teams that are right on the cut line. Teams’ bubble fates are products not only of what they do, but what other teams do.
There are seeding questions to be dealt with for the top teams, but for bubble teams, merely getting into the tournament is the only thing that matters right now. On that particular topic, then, you have to realize that Saturday witnessed substantial movements on and near the bubble. These movements have to be taken in consideration when evaluating the day in full (and the next few items on this list).
North Carolina State might have a resume which — due to its collection of high-end wins — might still hold up on Selection Sunday. It would be a mistake and an overreach to say the Wolfpack are clearly out after losing at Boston College in a blowout. However, with BYU and Boise State snaring monster bubble wins on the road, it’s clear that two teams dramatically helped themselves relative to the bubble. LSU’s win over Ole Miss was also very significant. N.C. State and also Miami — which lost a game against North Carolina it really had to have — might still be worthy of a spot in the field of 68, but they definitely lost ground in comparison to other teams. It’s that kind of cross-comparison which matters.
Remember: The Selection Committee is trying to pick 68 teams. There is no mandate that it has to get X number of teams from Y conference. There is also no bylaw saying that a team with a losing conference record can’t be selected. It’s about the best resumes in a comparison of all of them across the country. N.C. State and Miami are definitely near the cut line, with the Wolfpack being ahead of the Hurricanes. The ACC’s quest to get more than five teams into the field will depend on what happens in the next two weeks.
4 – THE KANSAS STATE QUESTION AND THE TENSION SURROUNDING TEXAS
The Big 12 has been wildly unpredictable all season long — even Kansas has looked a little more wobbly than in previous Big 12 championship seasons. Yes, it’s true that the Jayhawks could wrap up a title with a win over West Virginia and an Iowa State victory over Oklahoma, so an 11th straight championship would come as no surprise. Yet, the way in which the Jayhawks might claim their championship has been anything but predictable, at least in recent weeks.
Consider this: Baylor chose this year as the time to win its first game in Iowa State’s Hilton Coliseum, knocking off the Cyclones on Wednesday. Surely, Iowa State was going to bounce back on Saturday against a Kansas State team that had just spilled the tank in beating archrival Kansas. It was only logical to think that much as North Carolina State hadn’t won the next game after a win over North Carolina since 1992, Kansas State (which hasn’t beaten Kansas that often over the past few decades) would be flat after beating the Jayhawks. Yet, a late rally — fueled by some untimely turnovers from Iowa State — powered Kansas State to yet another marquee win.
This is where things get really complicated in a Big 12 that has never made complete sense this season.
Kansas State is now 15-15, and while that record should, on its face, not have the Wildcats remotely close to the tournament, look at this resume for a bit. Yes, there are way too many losses to mediocre teams. Yes, the road-neutral splits are terrible, which looks really bad. Yet, Kansas State has gotten a lot of work done when playing good teams at home. KSU hasn’t just come close the way many other teams do (and have, and will). The Wildcats have finished off wins, and while their road-neutral record stinks, they did win at Oklahoma.
You will find many resumes better than this one, but you’ll find even more that are worse.
Play along, folks: If Kansas State beats Texas and then makes the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament, which would involve beating a quality team on a neutral floor, would KSU have a case? Without question.
Now, this does NOT mean KSU would be in, but it WOULD have an argument to make.
Do recall that in 2001, Georgia went 16-14 while playing a very tough schedule. Not only did Jim Harrick’s Bulldogs make the field; they wore white in the first round as the higher seed, an 8 against ninth-seeded Missouri. If Kansas State does collect three more wins, it will be part of the bubble discussion — perhaps not enough to get in, but enough to be considered.
If Kansas State makes the Big 12 tournament final? Oh, boy. That will be a debate.
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Meanwhile, with Kansas State rising and the likes of BYU cementing their place in the tournament, this only means that Texas is in deeper and deeper trouble after failing to finish off Kansas.
Just a few paragraphs above, we mentioned the teams that just can’t seem to nail down big wins in close games. Kansas State has done that; Texas has not. The Longhorns very probably need two wins at minimum to make the field, given the upward bubble movements of other teams that entered Saturday near the cut line.
One more Big 12 note: With Oklahoma State losing to Texas Tech, the league could potentially have two teams with losing conference records in the field. Oklahoma State is now the leading candidate to be one of them, and Texas is second. Kansas State, should it beat Texas and merit consideration, would be 9-9.
3 – BUBBLE BREAKTHROUGHS: BYU AND BOISE STATE LEAD THE LIST
The biggest bubble win by far on Saturday was BYU’s conquest of Gonzaga in Spokane. That game means a lot for reasons other than the bubble, which we’ll get to shortly, but the biggest source of impact on the college basketball scene is that BYU very likely punched its ticket.
To put BYU’s win in perspective, first consider what another bubble team did on the final day of February: Boise State didn’t quite punch its ticket, but the Broncos certainly put themselves in position to make the field of 68 by winning at San Diego State on Saturday.
Let’s realize this: Boise State beat a San Diego State squad that is probably going to be seeded anywhere from 8 to 10 on Selection Sunday. That’s a solid win, and it’s of enormous value for the Broncos, but it’s not quite an earthquake in terms of movement. Boise State does have to avoid losses in each of its next two games to feel safe about making the field.
BYU, on the other hand, defeated a team that’s likely going to be a 2 seed, possibly still a 1 seed. BYU went from “right on the cut line” to “a few notches inside the cut line.” The Cougars just have probably earned their way into the the field. As long as they don’t fall in their first game at the WCC tournament next weekend, they should be fine. Winning the WCC semifinals would fully and firmly send them to Bracketville and a Thursday-Saturday opening-weekend pod.
2 – THE FOURTH NO. 1 SEED: ARIZONA BEGINS TO MAKE ITS CASE, AND VILLANOVA CONTEMPLATES ITS FUTURE
The BYU win over Gonzaga has thrown the final No. 1 seed into question. This was always going to be the case: If Gonzaga did lose another game, its status as the 1 seed in the West was going to be substantially weakened.
Here’s the relevant pair of plot twists from Saturday, though: Villanova, down at halftime to Xavier, came roaring back to win. Arizona won at Utah, sweeping the Utes and getting the quality road win it had been lacking on its resume. Villanova and Arizona have strengthened their cases for a top seed at the same time Gonzaga weeakened its case. Had Arizona lost to Utah and had Villanova lost to Xavier, Gonzaga might still be on the one line. Now, it seems clear the Zags are on the two line, and will stay there unless Villanova and Arizona lose multiple games in the next few weeks before Selection Sunday.
A key question to emerge from this chaos: If you’re Villanova, you know that Virginia will be the 1 seed in the East. Do you want the 1 seed in the West, with Arizona being the 2 seed under that scenario, or would you rather have the 2 seed in the East, with Virginia as the 1 seed in your bracket?
It’s worth revisiting every March: Would you rather have a higher seed or a geographical bracket placement which suits your interest? Villanova players, coaches and fans are certainly going to discuss this question in the coming days.
1 – GONZAGA: TO SHIP OR NOT TO SHIP?
Gonzaga will play its opening-weekend NCAA tournament games in Seattle. That is not in question. Gonzaga will be near its home base at the start of this tournament. However, when we get to the Sweet 16 for the regionals, will Gonzaga stay in the West following its home-court loss to BYU?
Let’s once again mention the possible scenario presented above: If Villanova gets the 1 seed in the West, Arizona could be the 2 seed in that region. This would push Gonzaga elsewhere, probably to the South with Duke as the 1 seed in that region.
On one hand, Gonzaga got its bad game out of the way before the NCAA tournament. This could be a welcome wake-up call for the Zags as they try to improve before the most important Big Dance of the Mark Few era in Spokane. On the other hand, if that loss to BYU pushes the Zags out of the West Region, the costs of this defeat could carry a price higher than what Gonzaga wanted to pay.
