The lowest-ranked power conference according to KenPom is currently the Pac-12, with an average rating of .7591. Even so, however, the league has two absolute tournament locks in Arizona and Utah, and the next worst league, the SEC, will get Arkansas and potentially one other team in addition to Kentucky.
However, will a power conference ever be a one-bid league?
The closest we have ever come in modern times was the 2012 Pac-12. California finished second in the league, but managed only a 12 seed. Colorado, meanwhile, would have probably not made the NCAA tournament as an at-large selection, but found a way to win the conference tournament and snag an 11 seed in the process. (The regular season champion, Washington, did not get in the field. Colorado saved the Pac-12 from single-bid status a month after Valentine’s Day.)
It likely won’t happen this year, unless Arkansas goes on a losing stretch. Fortunately for the Hogs, they are in the SEC.
The SEC, though, has the right sort of formula for what it will take: one elite team, and a lot of nothing underneath. This is the case although I also think a conference such as the 2012 Pac-12, with no elite team and a bunch of average teams beating up on each other, would be the best bet to produce a one-bid league. After all, if an SEC team beats Kentucky, however unlikely it is, it will be a huge resume booster. However, if there are a bunch of middling teams beating each other, it’s a possibility that just the conference champion or a strong-RPI second-place team (2012 Cal) will get in.
I just don’t see it happening, however. There are just too many good coaches and programs everywhere, to the point where it’s going to take monumental luck to get enough programs in down years to allow for a conference to get just one team in.
The lone scenario in which I could see it happening: It’s a few years down the road, and the increased money in college hoops means more good mid-major coaches like Gregg Marshall and Archie Miller can afford to stay at their current stops rather than jump for major conference jobs. The one-and-done rule has also been abolished under this hypothetical. Kids can go to the pros right out of high school. If we get a league with enough below-average coaches, and enough elite recruits coaches were counting on choose to go to the NBA instead, then maybe we will get a one-bid league. Yet, in this day and age, when there is just so much talent — and the NCAA tournament might expand even further — I can’t see a major conference becoming a one-bid league.
