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Suffice to say, in college football, we overrate out-of-conference games because we have to. They’re about as rare as the Goose Island Bourbon County Stout, and you beer drinkers reading this (hopefully, that’s all of my legal readership) will know of what I speak.
Those games, though, tend to have lasting effects (right or wrong) deep into November, long after they’ve been played and teams have (gasp!) possibly gotten better or worse in-season. It does actually happen.
Go back to 2007 for a great example. Going into week 13, LSU was ranked below Virginia Tech in the BCS standings and the Coaches Poll before their respective conference title games. Both would win, going to identical 11-2 records.
Earlier in the season, LSU had destroyed VT, 48-7. How the Tigers were ranked below VT with the same record in week 13 defies logic, but the point is, they were. When it came time to understanding how the BCS standings were going to choose the top two teams, LSU was voted ahead of VT in the Coaches Poll that following week after both won. The Tigers got into the BCS title game, and the rest is history.
Going into every season, you can identify several of these early season games that figure to have a thumbprint on what people are considering in November. Some of them turn out to be no more useful than a screen door on a submarine. We (meaning, I) identify five.
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5. Auburn over Louisville
Disclaimer: I wasn’t personally on Auburn this year like a lot of folks were, but a lot of folks were, and I think most folks assumed Louisville would be, at worst, a decent team. Though the game had all the flow of a clogged toilet, the opening weekend didn’t have many premier matchups. Auburn won, but neither team will be on anyone’s radar for any playoff stuff come December.
4. BYU over Nebraska
Oh, how little we knew, both about BYU’s voodoo and Nebraska’s regression as the Huskiers limp into Mike Riley’s system. The Hail Emma Smith made for good theater and was even better theater when the Cougars did it again the following week against Boise State. Since then, however, BYU has leveled off, losing to UCLA and getting housed by Michigan. Nebraska, meanwhile, just keeps finding creative ways to lose games.
3. Alabama over Wisconsin
At some point, the musical chairs at head coach was going to catch up with Wisconsin, if (hopefully for the Badgers) temporarily. You get so used to Wisconsin just being Wisconsin that it gets taken for granted. Ergo, when Alabama takes the Badgers out behind the shed for a hide tanning, you think, “oh, Big Ten runner-up probably just got thumped by an SEC team.” The second part was right. The first part will not be.
2. TCU over Minnesota
Believe it or not, Minnesota was a chic pick to win the Big Ten West, and with folks wanting to see if TCU was going to still be okay on defense with all of the losses and changes, this was sort of a showcase win for the Frogs in Minnesota’s joint. Warm-weather teams coming north should happen more often. At any rate, Minnesota has been a B-level horror movie on offense, and if TCU is in the conversation late, this win won’t be cared about… unless, of course, the argument is betwixt the Frogs and Baylor again, who didn’t bother to even play a Minnesota.
1. Michigan State over Oregon
Last year, this was probably the best individual win of the season for Oregon. The Spartans were looking to return the favor. If you watched the game, MSU was clearly better than the final three-point margin. At the time, Oregon was unbeaten and we didn’t know the Ducks were fraying from the inside. Then, Utah devalued the heck out of this win by de-pants-ing the Ducks in their joint. Again, teams get better and/or worse as the season goes on, and it’s somewhat unfair to call a win “less good” after we learn more simply because teams sometimes go south mentally after losing the first game, but this won’t be the springboard win it looked like when it happened.
