We are now just two short days away from a Big Ten party in Indianapolis.
Not only will a conference champion be crowned, but the entrance fee to the College Football Playoff will be paid as well. Iowa keeps beating all the odds, and it’s no different here: The national media and betting lines are favoring the old money in the league versus an overachieving Iowa squad.
Don’t take the Hawkeyes lightly, though. Iowa has made a living out of proving people wrong this year, and will attempt to rinse and repeat in Lucas Oil Stadium. Here are five reasons Iowa beats Michigan State on Saturday in prime time:
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5. The Beat(hard) Goes On
If you look at the history of the Hawkeye program under Kirk Ferentz, it’s been a contender in the Big Ten when there’s been a playmaking quarterback under center. Whether it was Brad Banks in 2002, Drew Tate in 2004, or Ricky Stanzi in 2009, quarterbacks who were more than just a game manager created special moments for the Hawkeyes.
Enter Beathard, stage left. Head coach Kirk Ferentz rolled the dice in January by naming him starter over incumbent Jake Rudock, and it’s paid off big-time. The coaching staff hasn’t asked much of him lately because it hasn’t had to, but earlier in the season Beathard produced timely plays and key throws to provide the difference between adulation and heartbreak. There’s a good chance we will see a longer leash for Mr. Beathard on Saturday, and there’s an even better chance he won’t pee on the neighbor’s bushes.
4. A Balancing Act
Perhaps what makes this Iowa team so dangerous is the fact that it has so much balance across the roster. The Hawkeyes are averaging 200.6 yards through the air and 203.7 on the ground. If the offense isn’t clicking, the defense usually pulls up its bootstraps and provides more than modest resistance to opposing offenses. When the defense is struggling with assignments, the offense finds a way to get explosive plays to provide some breathing room on the scoreboard.
The point is that Iowa’s competence across the board makes it hard to game-plan against one weakness until the dam cracks. Even when one area is exposed in a contest, there’s enough surrounding support in other phases of the game to make it a candy-coated pill to swallow. Iowa rarely beats itself, and the Spartans are about to find out that anything and everything will be earned through adversity. You can bank on that.
3. Deep Thoughts
You won’t find the recruiting classes at the top of the heap in Iowa City. Kirk Ferentz and his staff do a great job developing talent, but it’s hard to hit on every recruit and then get the growth out of them you need to be competitive year in and year out. That’s the life of an Iowa coach, because of the built-in disadvantages of being surrounded by corn fields instead of concrete jungles. Another symptom of that culture is a relatively thin roster that’s impacted by key injuries and/or departures.
Not this year.
This year’s Hawkeyes have absorbed injuries on multiple fronts. They’ve had to use a trio of running backs; they lost a dynamic defensive lineman in Drew Ott; and they’ve needed to shuttle players in and out at other times. Still, despite these key losses, the production just keeps coming. Now, the team may be as healthy as it’s ever been and ready to roll into Indianapolis and take care of business. Without the depth of personnel this year, there’s no party in Indy, and there’s no ability to stay fresh against an athletic Michigan State team.
2. A Thief Among Us
Did I mention that Iowa rarely beats itself? Nothing illustrates that notion more than looking at the turnovers this year. To date, the Hawkeyes have lost only eight fumbles, and have thrown just three interceptions. Yes, three. If I do the math and divide it by the square root of Pi, that equates to 11 total turnovers on the season.
On the enemies’ side of the ball, the numbers are much more elevated. Iowa has taken the ball from its opponents a total of 25 times, with the secondary acting as the unit most likely to burglarize with 17 interceptions to its credit. While you’d be inclined to attribute a lot of turnovers to luck, there’s clearly something happening on defense when there’s such a wide chasm between giving and receiving. The +14 turnover margin ranks fourth in the country, and those ball-hawking skills travel on the team bus as well.
1. The Hunger Games
You hear it a lot. The team that’s been there before has a huge advantage in these types of championship formats. The tickets to family and friends, the travel, the media hype and all that goes into this unique atmosphere are all so overwhelming for a first-time participant. While the numbers bear that out in the short history of the Big Ten Championship Game — with no team winning in its first appearance — you get a feeling it could go the other way with Iowa.
Kirk Ferentz has this team hungry. When you haven’t had a taste of such a high level of success, a first taste drives you to want much more in a lot of cases. Time after time, this team has been pegged as the underdog, and it’s relished the opportunity to shut the door on all the naysayers and critics. Iowa has been listening to all the media types and fans heap praise on Michigan State. It’s seen the CFP Committee slot it at No. 4 despite being one of only two undefeated teams remaining, and it’s no doubt seen Vegas set the line of the game strongly in the Spartans’ favor.
Perhaps nothing can serve as more motivation than a perception of disrespect. It can drive you, motivate you, and make you hungry to set the world on fire and snatch the respect you feel you so rightly deserve. Iowa seems to have that type of character. Don’t discount the team Kirk Ferentz leads out of the tunnel on game day.
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Phil Harrison is a contributor to The Student Section. He is also the founder of Big10news.com and featured contributor to collegefootballews.com, talking10.com, and occasionally campusinsiders.com. You can follow him on twitter @PhilHarrisonCFB or email him at pharrison28@gmail.com. If that doesn’t work, you can find him in the doghouse at home.
