Heading into week 11, I cautioned everyone to disregard the College Football Playoff rankings because there was plenty of football left to play, and there was a lot that could still happen.
Saturday’s action proved this point perfectly. Four 0f the top 10 teams suffered painful losses, while the squads that many felt were ranked too high continued to win.
So, what does it all mean in the grand scheme of things? Here is a list of five things we learned from Week 11:
5. The winner of the AAC Championship Game will capture the Group of Five New Year’s Six bowl bid
While some will insist that the matter isn’t settled, I’ll go on record as saying that it is.
Heading into Week 11, the G-5 bid was still up for grabs. Houston, Memphis, Navy, and Temple were all ranked in the top 25, while Boise, Toledo, and Bowling Green were within striking distance. With many of the AAC’s top teams scheduled to play over the coming weeks, it looked like the final rankings were going to generate plenty of conversation.
Last week’s results on the gridiron completely changed that thought process. Temple lost to South Florida, and could potentially miss the AAC championship game if it loses to Memphis and the Bulls were to win out. In addition, the Tigers’ loss to Houston not only eliminated them from contention, but it knocked out Bowling Green — which lost to Memphis 44-41 early in the year — as well. Likewise, Boise State’s hopes were dashed with a head scratching loss to New Mexico, which came into the game as a 30-point underdog.
The only non-AAC team that managed to escape from carnage unscathed was Toledo. However, the Rockets still have games remaining with division leaders Bowling Green and Western Michigan, and also need Northern Illinois to drop a contest just to get into the conference championship game. While you never say never with #MACtion, UT faces an uphill challenge to capture the bid, especially with the way the Huskies take care of business in November and December.
That leaves only Houston, Navy, and possibly Temple as the only real contenders to play in an NY6 bowl. Given how well the Cougars and Midshipmen have played this season, I don’t see either of them losing… outside of Nov. 27’s epic showdown in Houston.
4. Derrick Henry should be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece about Leonard Fournette and force-fed Heisman Trophy narrative. Naturally, I received some nasty emails and tweets with the hashtag #BUGA for doing so. For the most part, they were right, Fournette had excellent numbers at the time, drawing comparisons to SEC legends Bo Jackson and Herschel Walker.
So, why do I bring that up? It’s simple: when I wrote that article, I compared Fournette to Dalvin Cook and Devontae Booker. I didn’t even mention Derrick Henry.
What a difference a couple of weeks can make! While Fournette failed to crack the century mark in his last two games (both losses), Henry proved that he’s the best running back in the country. Yes, other backs might have better stats, but no one is better against elite competition than Henry. In three games against ranked opponents, Henry has rushed for an average of 187 yards per game (7.8 ypc) and eight touchdowns.
It’s tough to argue with those results. With Alabama poised to win the SEC Championship, Henry’s Heisman stock should continue to rise over the coming weeks, especially with games against Auburn (91st nationally in run defense) and Florida (another game against a ranked opponent) remaining.
3. The Pac-12 is out of the College Football Playoff picture
As much as I hate to say this because it’s the deepest league in the country, the Pac-12 is officially out of the national championship race.
That wasn’t the case when the weekend started. Sure, Stanford and Utah weren’t in the top 4, but with both in the top 10 each figured to be in the field as long as it kept winning.
Yet, neither did. While the Cardinal did a great job of trading scores with Oregon (thanks to a questionable interference call), it couldn’t come up with a the game-tying two point conversion. Similarly, Utah couldn’t generate anything on offense against Arizona after the third quarter, dropping a 37-30 heartbreaker in two overtimes, eliminating the Utes — and the conference — from playoff contention.
In all honesty, it looks like the eventual league champion will finish the season with three losses. After all, Stanford still has to play Notre Dame, Utah faces UCLA, and current South leader USC already has three losses. Unless the Cardinal upset the Irish, and/or Utah wins out and UCLA defeats USC in the season finale, the conference championship game will feature two teams with three losses.
The Selection Committee simply isn’t going to allow the winner of that game to play for all the marbles.
2. A Big 12 Team with one loss can qualify for the College Football Playoff
After unveiling the second installment of the College Football Playoff rankings (which are completely useless… so much so that you shouldn’t watch), many experts said that the Big 12 had to have an undefeated conference champion in order to get in the field.
Oklahoma changed that narrative on Saturday night, throttling a very good Baylor team 44-34. With games remaining against TCU and Oklahoma remaining on the schedule, the Sooners have a path to the playoff that’s very similar to what Ohio State did last year, closing out the year with three straight games against ranked opponents. If — and it’s a LaQuan McGowan-sized if — OU wins out, there’s no way that the Selection Committee is going to leave them out in favor of Notre Dame.
Sorry, Irish fans, but the “our loss is better than their loss” line isn’t going to outweigh the fact that the Sooners would have wins over three ranked teams to close the season. Had Temple and Stanford won this weekend, the story might have been different.
1. Tom Herman will be a coach at a Power 5 school next year.
Just to be perfectly clear: I have no knowledge that anyone has contacted him. However, I’m firmly convinced that Tom Herman will be coaching at a major program next year. I know if I were in charge of hiring a new coach, he’d be the first call I’d make…
…and probably the second or third, for that matter.
Saturday night’s Memphis-Houston game is precisely the reason that the big boys will come calling. Trailing 20-0 against a very good Tiger team that beat Ole Miss earlier in the year, Herman lost star quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. with an injury. While something like this would decimate most teams — including most Power 5 schools — the Cougar offense didn’t skip a beat. Backup Kyle Postma stepped on to the field and guided Houston to a TD, cutting the lead to 20-7. He continued to play well in the second half, completing 21 of 33 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown, leading the team in rushing with 49 yards.
To recap: Houston erased a three-touchdown second-half deficit against a one-loss team, all while using a backup quarterback as a matter of necessity, not choice. There’s no way for that to happen unless the coaching staff did an excellent job of getting the entire team ready to play.
Of course, this should come as no surprise to anyone, since Herman did the same with J.T. Barrett (filling in for Braxton Miller) and Cardale Jones (for an injured Barrett) en route to the national championship last season at Ohio State.
With that type of track record, it’s only natural for the big boys to come calling. But, would Herman go?
I would if I were him. Sadly, the deck is stacked against “mid majors” in the current playoff system. If Herman wants to compete for and win a national championship (and what coach doesn’t?), he’s got to move on to a Power 5 program. Unless the Cougars join the Big 12 or the playoff field were to expand in the future, he won’t get a chance to win a coveted crystal football at Houston.
