Last week, Kevin provided a list of 11 Heisman Trophy candidates from the SEC, and made some predictions about what the players needed to have happen in order to take home College Football’s highest honor.
That got me to thinking: could a Group of Five player win this prestigious award in 2016?
It’s definitely possible. Sure, the Power 5 schools will grab all of the headlines, but the G5 has some quality candidates that could crash the party with a big season this fall. While it might seem impossible, it’s worth noting that Ty Detmer of BYU — a member of the WAC at the time — won the Heisman Trophy over Raghib Ismail of Notre Dame and Eric Bienemy, who both led their respective teams to top 10 finishes in 1990.
Unfortunately, no other player from a mid-major has come close to winning the trophy ever since, aside from Marshall Faulk, who finished second in 1992.
That dry spell could end this year. Here’s a list of seven Group of Five Heisman Trophy candidates, that could do it:
7. Matt Breida, RB, Georgia Southern
One of the best-kept secrets in college football, Breida is arguably the most explosive running back in the country. Last season, he ranked 12th nationally in rushing touchdowns (17), 10th in yards per game (123.69), 1st in runs of the 30 yards or more (13), and 1st in yards per carry (7.92). He compiled these awesome stats despite averaging just 15.62 rushing attempts per game.
He’ll need to match these numbers this year if he’s going to compete for the Heisman Trophy. With games against Georgia Tech and Ole Miss in the second half of the season, Breida will chance to show what he can do against the big boys. However, if Georgia Southern doesn’t win the Sun Belt, it might be all for naught.
6. Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
Make no mistake about it: Terrell is one of the top triggermen in the college football. He’s the only quarterback in the country that has averaged over nine yards per attempt in each of the last two seasons. He also played very well in big games last year, throwing for 365 yards against Michigan State, and connecting on 12 of 20 passes for 247 and two TDs in an upset over Toledo, which gave the Broncos a share of the MAC West title.
With eight starters returning on offense, Terrell should pick up right where he left off last year. He’ll need to have big games against Northwestern, Illinois, Georgia Southern, and Toledo to have any shot to make it to New York, but expect him to have another big season in 2016.
Western Kentucky wide receiver Taywan Taylor gets a long pass during the second quarter of the Miami Beach Bowl game on Monday, Dec. 21, 2015, at Marlins Park in Miami. (Hector Gabino/El Nuevo Herald/TNS via Getty Images)
5. Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky
The picture above is a perfect illustration of what Taylor brings to the table. A dangerous receiver with 4.4 speed, Taylor caught 86 passes for 1,467 yards with 17 touchdowns. He was especially tough against Power 5 opponents, catching 22 passes for 339 yards and 2 TD’s.
Although Western Kentucky will have to break in a new quarterback this fall, don’t expect any dip in production. Since he has the luxury of playing against two SEC teams this year – including top-ranked Alabama – Taylor can play his way into the conversation if he posts big numbers in those contests. His candidacy would also receive a boost if the Hilltoppers were to win the East division, as it would give him one final chance to sway the voters with a strong effort in the Conference USA Championship game.
4. Dane Evans, QB, Tulsa
A great quarterback is someone who plays well when his team falls behind. Evans was one of the best in the country in these situations last year. When the Golden Hurricanes trailed last season, he completed 213 of 322 passes for 3,075 yards with an outstanding 19/4 TD-to-INT ratio. He was even better when the team trailed by more than two touchdowns, connecting on 70.1% of his throws with eight scores and zero interceptions.
In addition, Evans was at his best in the fourth quarter last year, completing 63% of his throws for 1,139 yards, which was the second-best total in the country.
If the Heisman Trophy were based solely on numbers, I’d like his chances to win. Unfortunately, it looks like Tulsa might finish in the middle of the pack in the AAC this season, which could really hurt his chances. However, Evans could easily move up on the list with strong outings against Ohio State and Houston.
3. Nick Mullens, QB, Southern Mississippi
Overshadowed by Brandon Doughty last year, Mullens was one of the most productive quarterbacks in college football. He ranked in the top 10 nationally in passing yards per game (9th) and touchdown passes (4th), while averaging 8.4 yards per completion. He was the best quarterback in the country on third down last season, ranking first in completions (70), first in touchdowns (14), second in completion percentage (69.9), and second in quarterback rating (180.97) in third down situations. In addition, Mullens was outstanding in the month of November, throwing for an average of 358 yards per game, with an impressive 10/2 TD-to-INT ratio to help lead the Golden Eagles to the Conference USA championship game.
With “Air Raid” guru Shannon Dawson taking over as Southern Miss offensive coordinator this fall, Mullens’ numbers could be even better than they were last year. These stellar stats, combined with a Conference USA championship and a strong showing against LSU, might be enough to move him to the top of some ballots.
2. Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State
Rypien had an excellent season last year, drawing comparisons with legendary Bronco signal caller Kellen Moore. His numbers were very similar, as he threw for 3,350 yards with 20 TD and 8 INT compared to Moore’s freshman totals of 3,486 yards, 25 TD, and 10 INT.
Moore went on to finish in the top 10 in the Heisman Trophy voting in each of the next three seasons.
Rypien could do that as well. In addition to the stellar numbers listed above – which he compiled in two fewer games than Moore – Rypien was extremely effective in tight contests last year. In drives where Boise was within one touchdown either way, he completed 107 for 161 passes for 1,176 yards with an 8/2 TD-to-INT ratio.
Although other players mentioned above had better numbers last season, Rypien is in a better position to win the Heisman Trophy because he plays on a very good Bronco team that many expect to compete for the Group of Five automatic bid to an NY6 bowl. With eye-popping stats and a solid win-loss record, he’d be a very tough candidate to beat, much like Ty Detmer was in 1990.
1. Greg Ward, QB, Houston
Ward is arguably the toughest quarterback in the country to defend, because he can beat you in so many ways. He excelled as a runner last season, rushing for 1,108 yards and 21 rushing touchdowns. He was even better as a passer, throwing for 2,828 yards and 17 touchdowns, while ranking ninth nationally in completion percentage. Ward was especially dangerous against ranked opponents last year, averaging 348 yards of total offense per game in those contests.
Although his numbers speak for themselves, the real reason that Ward is at the top of the list is because he has the opportunity to play his way into the race. Unlike other “mid-majors” in the past, Houston is in position to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Sure, the Cougars will have to get past both Oklahoma and Louisville in order to do that, but the fact of the matter is that they still control their own fate. Few – if any – non-Power 5 schools have been able to say that.
Will Ward become the first “mid-major” player since Ty Detmer to win the Heisman Trophy?
If he leads Houston to wins over Oklahoma and Louisville, I think he will. There’s no way to beat teams of that caliber without outstanding quarterback play. His stellar performances against ranked competition will be too good for the voters to ignore.
