The Big 12 did not have the best of weeks on the field this past weekend, though there were some bright spots. Still, many are writing the conference out of the Playoff and it did not help at all when this stat was bandied about over the weekend:
Big 12 is 2-10 in 2016 vs. Power 5 + The American + #MACtion.
— David Ubben (@davidubben) September 18, 2016
Ubben later corrected himself as he forgot Baylor’s win over SMU, but 3-10 is still a really bad number to have there. The Big 12 might be in for a long season–without a happy ending in the Playoff.
Here’s what we learned this weekend.
5. There is no way out of the league’s current situation until bowl season
College football fans have notoriously short memories, which is an excellent thing for the Big 12 this season. The conference laid an absolute egg in non-conference play, and there really is no way to fix that right now. Sure, a Big 12 team could still make the Playoff (more on that later), but as a whole, the conference currently gets no respect from the college football world — for good reason. The league has three non-conference wins against P5-level competition (Texas over Notre Dame, West Virginia over Missouri, and Oklahoma State over Pittsburgh), which just isn’t enough in the current landscape — not when the league also has losses to Central Michigan, Ohio, Houston, and Northern Iowa. The highest-ranked Big 12 team in the current AP Poll is untested Baylor at No. 16. The good news is that an excellent, or even pretty good, bowl season will make everyone forget about all of this. In the “what have you done for me lately” world of college football, chances at redemption come often. 2016 might be a dud as far as league reputation goes, but 2017 could easily put the league back on top with good results.
4. Oklahoma State is still alive
I’m not just talking about the Playoff race. The Cowboys lost an absolute heartbreaker last week and could have easily packed it in against a pretty good Pittsburgh team. They didn’t, weather delay and all. The team played a great game and had a strong showing– and a quality win –coming off a shouldn’t-have-happened loss to Central Michigan. Oklahoma State will be ready to compete seriously in Big 12 play.
3. The conference is wide-open
It’s a little early to get a good gauge, and Oklahoma is still a very talented team, but there are lots of teams that have been pretty impressive in non-conference play. If the Sooners really have fallen off a bit (it could be that Ohio State is just that good), then just about anyone can win this conference. Oklahoma State and Texas have talent but have also played inconsistently at times. Kansas State showed promise in its loss to Stanford. Texas Tech and TCU can score on anyone and make any game a track meet. West Virginia and Baylor have looked pretty good too. The conference might have no elite teams right now, but there are definitely eight pretty good teams in the conference. Oklahoma is still probably the favorite, but don’t be surprised if we see lots of parity in conference play this year.
2. Texas isn’t who we thought it was
To be fair, some of us never quite bought in to all of the Texas hype. Notre Dame is a very young team this year. Still, it took the loss to Cal to remind everyone that Texas is heading in the right direction but not quite there yet. The Longhorns will be competitive in the Big 12 and are probably a Top 25-caliber team this year, but they are not the Top 10 squad that many thought they were looking at. That’s not a bad thing either. Charlie Strong is doing good things in Austin and resuscitating the program. It just takes a little while.
1. The Playoff hopes are rapidly dwindling
It’s still too early to really declare the Big 12 dead for the Playoff. Heck, it’s too early to declare Oklahoma dead. The Sooners played the best non-conference schedule in the country. If they go 10-2 and end the season on a nine-game winning streak, they will probably be the country’s highest-ranked two-loss team. No, the Big 12 isn’t out of the Playoff picture yet. But it is far, far closer to being out of it than any other conference. It’s a long season, though; let’s not declare who’s in the Playoff until more of it plays out.
