If you’ve heard or read it once, you’ve heard or read it a million times: The character of a college football season changes based on the month. September and the non-conference schedule; October and the attempt to establish the right identity; November and the attempt to play under championship pressure — they’re three different flavors of college football. The first weekend of October is not generally a time reserved for final verdicts.
Most of what you’re going to read below, then, should not be seen as a final statement on the Big Ten this season, but more as a reaction to what happened in the early window of games on Saturday afternoon in the Midwest.
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The character of the Big Ten Conference’s 2015 football season can — and in certain areas, almost surely will — evolve and change over the next several weeks before the league’s title game in Indianapolis. It is hard to imagine a whole league remaining in a state of stasis for two whole months.
With that having been said, however, the first full week of conference competition definitely presented one clear and overriding theme: The offenses in this league are strugglee buses as broken down as the Gus Bus at Auburn. Saturday witnessed one futile offensive performance after the other, creating a very clear dynamic in the conference and both of its divisions.
From the noon window of games, name one offense that played its A-game for anywhere close to 60 minutes. You can’t.
Northwestern (more on the Wildcats in a little bit) was ultimately solid and did more than enough to win, but let’s not use the G-word (“great”) to refer to a modest first-half performance. Minnesota plainly flunked, showing everyone that the regression witnessed in non-conference play was not confined to September.
Michigan State’s offense — yes, battling some significant injuries, but still with its prime skill people on the field — couldn’t translate a lot of rushing yards into a big score against Purdue. A 24-point outing against the Boilermakers, even if graded on a curve in light of injuries, can’t be graded too generously.
Iowa and Wisconsin? Well, let’s just put it this way: The Hawkeyes and Badgers clubbed the sport of football with a 2 X 4 in a back alley. The 10-6 eyesore was a game technically won by the Hawkeyes, but in reality, everyone who watched that game lost… except for anyone who made a bet that the whole thing would be over in under three hours and 15 minutes (or had a lunch date at 3 p.m. Central time in Madison, or both).
Penn State scored just 20 points at home against an Army team whose defense couldn’t solve Fordham in week one and gave up 36 to Eastern Michigan, albeit in a blowout win.
Maryland could have played 12 quarters on Saturday, not four, and still failed to dent the scoreboard against Michigan. The Wolverines have a terrific defense, but an offense with a pulse should be able to achieve a few things. Michigan did eventually score 28 points, but quarterback Jake Rudock was hardly the picture of efficiency on Saturday.
Again, things might change in the coming weeks, as coaching staffs make adjustments and players respond differently to various opponents and situations. However, based on one week of Big Ten action, the season shapes up as a long, hard slog for offenses.
The team which benefits the most from this dynamic, should it hold up for the most part?
Northwestern.
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The week-one shutdown of Stanford becomes more impressive with the passage of time, but every subsequent Northwestern opponent has brought very little to the table on offense this season against quality competition. Eastern Illinois, Duke, Ball State, Minnesota — adjusted for competition in the cases of EIU and Ball State, none of those teams have yet shown the ability to display a genuinely formidable offense in 2015.
Northwestern doesn’t have a loaded offense, but if there’s one thing the Cats have shown this season, it’s that they gobble up deficient offenses for breakfast. As long as they don’t make too many mistakes on offense, they can win low-scoring games in old-time minimalist fashion. Northwestern is a throwback team in a modern era.
Given that Northwestern hosts Iowa — the main contender (at the moment) in the Big Ten — the Wildcats should be considered the favorite. Perhaps Wisconsin can get off the mat, but the Badgers have already lost some of their margin for error.
Northwestern’s path to the Big Ten Championship Game seems clear: Go 6-2, winning every game except for the roadies at Michigan and Wisconsin, which are going to be tough. As long as NU can win the home game versus Iowa and the road trip to Nebraska, and Wisconsin loses two more times, Pat Fitzgerald’s team has the formula for a division title. Should NU win either the Michigan or Wisconsin games, a win over Iowa would probably put the Wildcats in a nearly unassailable position.
The Big Ten, collectively, needs to find an offensive compass.
Northwestern, more than any other program in the conference with the possible exception of Michigan, hopes this development does not occur.
We’ll see if the next several weeks imitate this first Saturday of Big Ten ball… or if an offensive evolution changes the dynamics of the conference race, especially in its West division.
