Wisconsin Badgers
2014 Record: 11-3 (beat Auburn in Outback Bowl)

1 Burning Question: Can the Badgers find a passing game?

There’s really no big secret to the Wisconsin Badgers’ success — they’ll run the ball right down your throat and kill you with the passing game when you sell out against the run. Over the past two seasons, however, the Badgers have slowly regressed in the passing game portion. It showed big time in losses to LSU and Northwestern during the regular season. With any resemblance of a passing game, UW likely would have entered the Big Ten Championship Game undefeated, and then things are really different.

Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig couldn’t find the needed mix of receivers and a confident quarterback. However, Ludwig is gone, and the guy who led UW to its most successful offenses, Paul Chryst, is back — this time as a head coach.

The biggest question facing him heading into this season is if he has a quarterback able to complete the deep passes and use play-action to his advantage. He seems to think Stave, the man who lacked any confidence until the final few weeks of the 2014 season, is back to his old self. That could be good news for the Badgers, as they’ll need a passing game to beat the likes of Alabama, Iowa and Nebraska and stay in the national conversation.

2 Key Stats to Pay Attention To

Minus-9 — The Badgers’ turnover margin in 2014. Wisconsin got away with the second-worst turnover margin in the Big Ten last season, and it can’t do that this year and expect the same results. The rest of the Big Ten West is getting better, and UW doesn’t have Melvin Gordon to pound out 2,500 yards and eat up time of possession. The biggest culprits of that negative turnover margin were interceptions, both for and against. Wisconsin collected just six interceptions (second fewest in the B1G) and threw 16 interceptions too (also second most in the B1G). Turning that around will make UW much more likely to be a success in 2015.

11 — Wisconsin is on an 11-game winning streak in its rivalry with Minnesota. No FBS rivalry has been played more than Wisconsin-Minnesota, and the annual battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe has become wholly one-sided as of late. However, Minnesota’s resurgence in recent years has spiced things up. Last season this final-week matchup was for all the marbles in the Big Ten West, and it could end up much the same in 2015. At some point the Badgers’ winning streak is going to end, but will it happen in 2015?

3 Games That Will Make or Break the Season

2015 Full Schedule
9/5 – vs. Alabama
9/12 – Miami (OH)
9/19 – Troy
9/26 – Hawai’i
10/3 – Iowa
10/10 – at Nebraska
10/17 – Purdue
10/24 – at Illinois
10/31 – Rutgers
11/7 – at Maryland
11/21 – Northwestern
11/28 – at Minnesota

Saturday, September 5 vs. Alabama
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 1-0 (just 1 meeting)
Last Year’s Result: Did Not Play. Last meeting was a 15-0 win for UW in 1928.

Why it matters: B1G vs. SEC, opening weekend of the college football season, and ESPN’s College GameDay in attendance at AT&T Stadium should tell you all you need to know about this top 20 matchup. It also happens to be the only top-20 matchup in week one, making this a game everyone will be tuning in to watch. Win, and the Badgers put themselves squarely into the national title hunt from the beginning of the season on; lose badly, and it could ruin any run UW makes in the Big Ten. This game is much more important than the matchup last season against LSU in week one.

Saturday, October 10 at Nebraska
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 4-1
Last Year’s Result: W, 59-24

Why it matters: Mike Riley, the mentor, versus Paul Chryst, the pupil. Get used to that storyline being told ad nauseam. However, the real story is that this week six matchup could likely determine the course of the Big Ten West race. Outside of Minnesota, these two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the division on paper heading into the season. Wisconsin’s lone loss in the last five meetings with Nebraska came on the road in Lincoln during the 2012 season, so getting a road win this time around could really be UW’s last chance to make a statement on the national level.

Saturday, November 28 at Minnesota
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 5-0
Last Year’s Result: W, 34-24

Why it matters: Could the winner of this matchup end up in the Big Ten Championship Game once again? It was pretty black and white when these two bitter rivals met in Madison, and if UW and Minnesota can both get by Nebraska, it could be the case once again, but this time up in Minneapolis. The battle for Paul Buynan’s Axe has been owned by the Badgers, who are looking for win No. 12 in a row. However, Minnesota has gotten closer and closer to breaking that streak since Jerry Kill became the head coach, and it was only a 10-point game last season. There isn’t a better rivalry in the Big Ten West than this one, and that will always make this a big game.

4 Key Players

Joel Stave, QB — It may seem like Stave is the grandfather of all Big Ten quarterbacks, as he’s been part of the mix since the last time Chryst was coaching at UW. However, this is his last go-round, and arguably no player is going make or break the Badgers more than Stave and his ability to hit the deep ball in the play-action heavy offense Chryst likes to use. If Stave is more of the 2013 version of himself and less what we saw last year, Wisconsin’s offense has a chance to be really dangerous.

Arthur Goldberg, DE — Wisconsin’s defensive line has been lacking in pass-rush ability since switching to the 3-4 defense under defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. Part of that is because the Badgers lacked the personnel at the position to really make a difference, but that could change this year with the switch of Arthur Goldberg from nose guard to defensive end. He dominated at times in spring and has continued to do that in fall camp. Look for him to make some plays behind the line of scrimmage and take some pressure off UW’s linebackers.

Tanner McEvoy, S/WR — Two-way players just don’t exist like they used to, but the Badgers are going to have one this season, as a former quarterback, safety and wide receiver sticks to just safety and wide receiver this season. McEvoy focused a ton on safety in the spring, and his athletic ability and size showed well. So far in fall camp he’s been burning defensive backs with his speed, and at 6-6, 235 pounds, McEvoy is a unique weapon for the Badgers to be able to use.

Corey Clement, RB — Running Back U will have a new guy getting the carries as a starter this season, following Melvin Gordon’s near record-setting 2014 season. That guy just so happens to be Clement, and he just so happened to rush for nearly 1,000 yards himself in his sophomore season. After waiting behind both James White and Melvin Gordon, Clement gets the spotlight and likely a heavy amount of carries, too. There is a lot of inexperience and youth behind Clement, so not only will he need to be a good running back, he needs to stay healthy in order for UW to be a success this season.

5 Bold Predictions

5. Wisconsin will beat Alabama.

Yes, I’m calling my shot here, and feel free to call me crazy. While TSS’s Terry Johnson thinks UW is overrated thanks to losses on offense, Alabama has plenty of change happening on that side of the ball too.

If you want to believe that an untested quarterback, whoever it will be (there is a three-man battle going right now), is better than a guy with 28 starts under his belt and plenty of top defenses played, then by all means go for it. As crazy has it may sound, Wisconsin actually has the experience advantage in this matchup and that makes a massive difference in week one games.

Wisconsin’s Dave Aranda will have plenty of blitz packages and different fronts to throw at Alabama. I don’t see the Crimson Tide offense being able to handle that as easily as UW may be able to adjust and handle what Bama will throw at the Badgers.

4. Joel Stave will pass for 3,000 yards.

Since shining in his first spring as an early-enrollee freshman back in 2011, Joel Stave has shown he has the arm and ability to put up large numbers in the pass game. Yet, his career hasn’t unfolded the way many or he would have liked, with injuries and a coaching switch wreaking havoc on the numbers he’s been able to put up.

However, there are a few factors that tell me he could be in store for a major season on the stat sheet. One, he’s the starter from day one with new head coach Paul Chryst. Having the coaching staff believe in him makes a huge mental difference. So does Chryst’s combination of coaching ability and play-calling, as Stave has already looked better.

Let’s also not forget that in his first season as a true starter, back in 2012, Stave threw for over 2,400 yards. If that QB shows up and combines with Chryst’s play-calling, it could be a huge year for Stave.

3. Tanner McEvoy will lead this team in receiving yards.

All the on-field talk in the Big Ten offseason (not relating to Jim Harbaugh) has been about Braxton Miller’s transition to a wide receiver/h-back. However, there is another former quarterback turned wide receiver that will do some serious damage in 2015 — Tanner McEvoy.

Early reports in fall camp show that McEvoy is regularly beating cornerbacks and safeties and doing it DEEEP downfield — including a 73-yard touchdown from Stave on day one of fall camp. With the Badgers wanting to hit big plays in the passing game and Chryst’s offense keying on play-action passing, that’s a great piece of news.

Everyone will point to the two-year leading wide receiver, Alex Erickson, as the likely leader again this season, but McEvoy’s athletic ability and size make him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Look for him to be the biggest weapon in the play-action passing game and for that to translate to major yardage, giving Wisconsin the chunk plays a quality offense requires.

2. Wisconsin will lead the country in pass defense.

Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State may get all the hype and publicity, but the real secret to UW’s defensive success under Aranda has been its ability to limit opponents in the passing game. Last season was proof of that, as sophomore cornerback Sojourn Shelton went from freshman All-American to a liability at times, and UW still led the league in pass defense. It also finished fourth in the country, giving up just 168 yards per game.

With Shelton getting back into form and three other starters from that same group last season returning, it could be a really big year for the Badgers’ secondary. Add in Tanner McEvoy and some youth at safety, and there is a chance this could be one of the most productive pass defenses in the country.

1. Wisconsin will go undefeated, but miss out on the College Football Playoff.

How does that happen? As much as I’d love to say the Badgers go completely undefeated and get into the College Football Playoff, this could be a year where some funny things happen. Will that week one win over Alabama be as great at the end of the year as it was at the beginning? Maybe, but probably not. Will the Big Ten East champion be undefeated given the tough nature of that division?

If Alabama isn’t as good as some believe and a weakened Big Ten East champion happens, the Badgers’ schedule doesn’t really help them all that much — especially with weak crossover games against Maryland and Rutgers.

That means Wisconsin is going to have to get some help from a good Big East champion to beat in the title game. If there is a one or two-loss champion coming out of the East, Wisconsin’s path to the College Football Playoff could be a difficult one.