Michigan State Spartans
2014 Record: 11-2 (Won Cotton Bowl)
1 Burning Question: Can Michigan State take the next step and compete for a college football championship?
Michigan State has won 24 games the last two seasons combined, two high profile bowl games over teams they were supposed to not defeat, and have thrust themselves into the discussion as a serious year in and out national power. The next step is the obvious. While Big Ten championships and Rose Bowl wins (and pasting would-be CFB Playoff contenders) are remarkable accomplishments, a long-awaited championship would be the coup de gras for a program that always seems to walk with a perennial chip on its shoulder … whether true or manufactured. MSU has done the lead up work to a title … can they take the next step and get it done?
2 Key Stats to Pay Attention to
148.46 – The pass efficiency rating of the Spartans in 2014, 22nd best in the country. When folks think of MSU, the passing game isn’t usually the first thing that comes to mind. Granted, their running game sets up a lot of it, but it’s important to note that behind the arm of Connor Cook, MSU can actually drill you with the pass when they need to. They also don’t make many mistakes in the passing game to put their defense in crappy situations.
3.23 – Sacks per game, good enough for 8th nationally in 2014. Without question, MSU wins games on the defensive line. They gave up only 88 rushing yards per game last season, but also get to the quarterback with extreme frequency. This will be a stat to monitor in 2015 as they lose talent in the secondary again.
3 Key Games That Will Make or Break the Season
2015 Full Schedule
9/4 — @ Western Michigan
9/12 — Oregon
9/19 — Air Force
9/26 — Central Michigan
10/3 — Purdue
10/10 — @ Rutgers
10/17 — @ Michigan
10/24 — Indiana
11/7 — @ Nebraska
11/14 — Maryland
11/21 — @ Ohio State
11/28 — Penn State
Saturday, September 12, Oregon
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 2-3
Last Year’s Result: L, 27-46
Why it matters: Honestly, this might be the biggest out of conference tilt nationally this season. Both the Spartans and Ducks are expected to contend for a playoff spot, and both are (thankfully) not avoiding one another. Right or wrong, many perceptions will be shaped by this game, including the relative strength at the top of both the Pac-12 and Big Ten. The loser has a massive uphill climb back into playoff talk. The winner arguably gains the early national edge in strength perception.
Saturday, November 21, @ Ohio State
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 2-3
Last Year’s Result: L, 37-49
Why it matters: Other than the fact that it very likely could determine who the Big Ten championship representative from the East is, it very well could determine who ends up being in or locked out of the CFB Playoff. Other than that, nothing to see here.
Saturday, October 17, @ Michigan
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 4-1
Last Year’s Result: W, 35-11
Why it matters: Bragging rights are always on the line, but this year will feel a bit differently for a rivalry that MSU has flat out dominated recently. With Michigan bringing in a much-balleyhooed new staff, this will be a game recruits look at wondering if there’s a turning of the tide again in the state. Aside from that, MSU has avoided Ann Arbor because of quirky scheduling rules the last two years. The last time they were there, they lost in dramatic fashion.
4 Key Players
Connor Cook, QB — Two years ago, Cook looked like a guy just needed to not make mistakes while MSU and their defense carried the team. Late in 2013 and certainly all of 2014, Cook emerged as a guy whom you can put the team on his back and expect him to carry it. He threw 24 touchdowns to 8 interceptions last season but needs to get his completion percentage above 60. But without question, he is one of the best and more NFL-ready quarterbacks that exist in college football.
Malik McDowell, NT — An FWAA Freshman All-American, McDowell will be tasked with carrying on the tradition of stingy MSU run defenses from the heart of it all. The bottom line in the Big Ten is whether or not you can control the line of scrimmage, no matter how rules change to make passing and points easier. McDowell stepping up and in will without question potentially change the arc of MSU’s season.
Shilique Calhoun, DE — Calhoun is one of the best defensive players in the nation, and arguably the best overall. He’s a hell-raising menace to quarterbacks and running backs alike and shows unique smarts in pass coverage. He had 7.5 sacks last season for a team that basically didn’t let you run anywhere. He needs to continue to be that anchor.
Aaron Burbridge, WR — He comes into 2015 as the team’s leading returning pass catcher (tied) with only 29 catches last season, but is the elder statesman and only returning starter at the position. Connor Cook will make up for what could be viewed as a position that needs to grow, but he will need a safety net guy. Burbridge needs to step into that role.
5 Bold Predictions
5. Shilique Calhoun will emerge as a first team All-American.
I don’t know how “bold” this is considering he was a third teamer last season, but look, there apparently are five of these things and it’s just not easy being bold five times. Good for Calhoun though, who came back to MSU in spite of being a likely first round NFL pick.
4. Connor Cook will emerge as an expected first round QB selection in the NFL draft.
I like the arc young Cook is on, improving dramatically every season. As aforementioned, he needs to be a little more accurate with his passes (58 percent last year), but the bet here is that he gets it done in spite of a mostly inexperienced at carrying the load receiving corps. Cook has a cannon for an arm, good mobility, and the size those NFL folks are looking for. MSU actually is really doing a great job cultivating NFL QB’s lately.
3. MSU defeats Oregon in September.
In their last meeting, the Ducks just wore the Spartans out in the second half. That was the story of that one. MSU will enter this game much more experienced in key positions on the national stage than the Ducks, plus it’s in East Lansing. It will be a springboard win not only for the Spartans, but for perception of the conference, and they will win it convincingly.
2. MSU finishes third in the Big Ten East.
This isn’t necessarily a knock on them, but the schedule for the Spartans this year is flat out brutal. They will go to Michigan for the first time in three years, visit Nebraska, visit Ohio State, and from October 10 to November 28, will play only two home games. This isn’t a reflection of necessarily how good they are, but sometimes the schedule doesn’t play out well for you.
1. MSU will reach double-digit wins for the third straight season, including another bowl win.
One of the unique things about MSU is their four game bowl win streak. It speaks highly of the coaching staff that they can center the team and get them up after that break. The last two wins have been over top-5 ranked teams. While the overall narrative of the season will be disappointing in the sense that they expect to play for a championship, there’s nothing to sneeze at about gaining an expected at least 10 wins and another bowl pelt on the wall.
