Arizona Wildcats
2014 Record: 10-4, 7-2 Pac-12 (lost bowl game)

1 Burning Question: Can the Wildcats achieve a consistent level of play?

When they needed to, the Wildcats looked great in solid wins over Oregon in October, over Utah on the road, and over Arizona State in the Territorial Cup game to clinch the Pac-12 South. They were lucky to escape UTSA (!) and Cal (on a Hail Mary!) and played downright putrid games against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game and against UCLA. Granted, part of the issue was the youth of the team, as young players littered the depth chart at key positions, including quarterback and running back. With a year of high-level conference play in what might be one of the two best divisions in the FBS (along with the SEC West), consistent performance may appear this year instead of the yo-yo efforts the team put forth last season.

2 Stats To Pay Attention To

69 percent: Kicker Casey Skowron went 16 for 23 on field goal attempts inside of 40 yards. He hit a much higher percentage (4 out of 5) on attempts over 40 yards. Slightly better accuracy from Skowron could have added a win or two to Arizona’s ledger last season. Skowron has to improve from shorter range, or the Wildcats need to score more touchdowns, to make this a non-issue in 2015.

46.07: Last season’s gross punting average for Drew Riggleman. That was good for second in the Pac-12 and fourth in the country. Having a weapon like that in your arsenal is useful, and Riggleman’s big leg might be able to help the defense by pinning opponents back when drives stall. Arizona does hope, however, that he does not have to come out to punt 76 times as he did last season.

3 Games That Will Make Or Break The Season

Full 2015 Schedule
9/3 — UTSA
9/12 — @ Nevada
9/19 — Northern Arizona
9/26 — UCLA
10/3 — @ Stanford
10/10 — Oregon State
10/17 — @ Colorado
10/24 — Washington State
10/31 — @ Washington
11/7 — @USC
11/14 — Utah
11/21 — @ Arizona State

Saturday, September 26, versus UCLA
Record in Last Five Meetings: 2-3
Last Year’s Result: L, 17-7

Why it matters: In last year’s game, the Wildcats went 75 yards and scored a touchdown in the first three minutes of the game. They totaled 180 yards and no points over the remaining 57 minutes. The Wildcats will be hungry for revenge, and while some of the key players from that game will be gone for UCLA, this Arizona team will want to make a statement in the conference opener this season.

Saturday, November 7, at USC
Record in Last Five Meetings: 1-4
Last Year’s Result: L, 28-26

Why it matters: A missed two-point conversion and three missed field goals, including one at the end of the game, kept the Wildcats from beating USC at home in October. Also, the Arizona run defense was shredded by Buck Allen for 205 yards and three touchdowns. The run defense is improved, but Cody Kessler is a top-level quarterback and might be able to feast on the secondary.

Saturday, November 21, at Arizona State
Record in Last Five Meetings: 2-3
Last Year’s Result: W, 42-35

Why it matters: The Territorial Cup was thrilling last season, with a division title on the line. Arizona State had a drive stall on the 40 yard line, giving the division crown to its in-state rival. It was the third time in the history of the series that both teams entered the game ranked. That might be the case again this year, and there is a chance that the stakes will be high again. However, it will be Arizona’s 12th game in as many weeks. Will the Wildcats have enough left in the tank in a hostile environment?

4 Key Players

Scooby Wright III, LB — The heart, soul, and anchor of the defense, Wright has played at a high level his first two years and received the accolades to prove it. Wright is the key cog in a terrifying run defense, although given the potential weakness of the secondary, he may have to show off his ability to cover and play in space more frequently this year.

Anu Solomon, QB — Solomon made a splash early in his redshirt season, displaying dual-threat big play ability. However, he was inconsistent from the middle of the season on and was yanked from the Pac-12 Championship Game. He was average at best in the bowl game against Boise State, but Arizona needs him to play up to his potential on a more regular basis if the Wildcats want to defend their division title.

Nick Wilson, RB — Wilson had a very good debut season for the Wildcats, rushing for 1,375 yards and 16 touchdowns, including six in the two games against Utah and Arizona State that helped clinch the Pac-12 South title. Wilson is explosive in the open field, and if Solomon continues to grow as a quarterback under Rodriguez, then Wilson could make a huge name for himself as one of the top backs in the country.

DaVonte’ Neal, DB — Yes, Davonte’ Neal is going to be a possible key player. Neal was a wide receiver until this offseason, and while he has some playmaking ability, he was not the best receiver in the world. With the loss of several defensive backs, defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel needs to get playmakers into the secondary for his 3-3-5 defense. How quickly Neal adjusts to playing on this side of the ball will be something to monitor for the coaching staff.

5 Bold Predictions

5. The offensive line will improve, allowing the offense to improve.

The line at Arizona is a deep unit with veteran leadership starting and talented youth with potential behind it. Given the level of returning experience, and with this being year four of Rich Rodriguez in Tucson, expect the offense to be near the top of the country in many major statistical categories.

4. The defense will suffer.

For all of the depth that the offensive line has, the converse is true for the secondary. Several key players from last year’s secondary are gone, and while the players returning have some experience, the ability to hold up as a focal point of the defense has yet to be demonstrated. The 3-3-5 system that Arizona uses has a heavy “bend but don’t break” element to it. We will see how flexible the unit is, especially given the level of quarterback play the Wildcats will be facing this season in conference.

3. The Wildcats will go 3-1 against the teams from the North.

The toughest crossover opponent for the Wildcats is Stanford. Oregon is off the schedule outside of a rematch in the Pac-12 title game, and the other three opponents (Washington, Washington State and Oregon State) are in various stages of building and are much weaker than Arizona. 3-1 is a reasonable assessment for the crossover schedule unless something fluky happens.

2. The Wildcats will win 10 games this season…

With a 3-1 record against the North, and a sweep of the non-conference schedule, that gets the Wildcats to six wins in seven games. Arizona should be in contention to win four of the remaining six games (if you include the bowl game) and get to double digits.

1. But the Wildcats will not defend the South title.

While 10 wins are on the table, the Wildcats are running a gauntlet with their schedule. The only bye is after they have completed their regular season schedule. It will come in handy only if they make the Pac-12 Championship Game. Couple the grind with the fact that two of the three toughest games on the schedule will be road games in November against good quarterbacks, and a repeat of the South division title looks slim. Arizona will be in contention, but will fade down the stretch.