Alabama Crimson Tide
2014 Record: 12-2 overall, 7-1 SEC (lost to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl / College Football Playoff Semifinals)
1 Burning Question: Can Alabama get back to the top of the mountain?
From 2009 to 2012, Nick Saban built a legacy that no one could possibly maintain. During this time the Crimson Tide went 49-5 overall and 27-5 in the SEC. They won three BCS national championships in four years.
Over the last two years, Saban’s Tide has gone 23-4 overall and 14-2 in the SEC. The Tide have been excellent over the last two years, but they haven’t reached the height of the teams from 2009 to 2012 (save the 2010 team, which lost three times).
The magic that happened from 2009 to 2012 may be gone, but Alabama hasn’t fallen off the map. The Tide are still in striking range of being the number one team in college football. The big question is if their time of being “the team” is over with the change in eras from the BCS to the College Football Playoff.
One big thing Bama has to deal with is that the competition from top to bottom in the SEC West is much greater than it was in the past. There simply isn’t an off-week when playing a divisional opponent. In past years, Saban had better talent and he was out-coaching his opponents. Now the talent gap has slimmed, both on the field and on the sidelines.
The talent pool Alabama lost to the NFL this season would cripple most teams. Amari Cooper, Landon Collins, Xzavier Dickson, T.J. Yeldon, Arie Kouandjio, Austin Shepherd, Jalston Fowler, Trey DePriest, DeAndrew White and Christion Jones. They also lost their starting QB for the second straight season.
Alabama continues to recruit at an elite level. The Tide continue to have two of the brightest (depending on whom you talk to) minds in college football on the sidelines with Kirby Smart and Lane Kiffin. Alabama has a ton of positives, but the team also has its fair share of question-marks this season. Can the Tide regain their spot at the top of the mountain?
2 Key Stats to Pay Attention to
22 — This is the number of turnovers lost by Alabama in 2014. In Lane Kiffin’s first season at the helm of the Tide’s offense, Bama turned the ball over more than in any other year of the Nick Saban era. Alabama’s offense has also increased its amount of turnovers every year since 2011.
70.31 — This is the percentage of times the Alabama offense scored a TD once inside the red zone. Kiffin’s offense did turn the ball over in 2014, but it also punched the ball in the end zone better than any other team in the SEC. Bama scored 45 TDs in the red zone (tied for 1st with Georgia), but it converted red zone tries into TDs at the highest rate in the conference.
3 Key Games That Will Make or Break the Season
Full 2015 Schedule
9/5 — Wisconsin
9/12 — Middle Tennessee
9/19 — Ole Miss
9/26 — ULM
10/3 — at Georgia
10/10 — Arkansas
10/17 — at Texas A&M
10/24– Tennessee
10/31 — Open Date
11/7 — LSU
11/14 — at Mississippi State
11/21 — Charleston Southern
11/28 — at Auburn
Saturday, September 19, vs Ole Miss
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 1-4
Last Year’s Result: L, 17-23
Why it matters: Before last season, the Tide had won ten straight against Ole Miss. In 2015, the Rebels finally broke through. In order to regain its former standing at the top of the mountain, Bama must put the Rebels back in their previous place.
Saturday, October 3, at Georgia
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 2-3
Last Year’s Result: Did not play
Why it matters: This season, Dawgs-Tide could pit the best team in the SEC East against the best team in the SEC West. Alabama has beaten Georgia in the schools’ last two meetings, but the margin of victory diminished. The winner of this game will get a huge boost in the polls, and a loss for either team will be a major setback.
Saturday, November 28, at Auburn
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 3-2
Last Year’s Result: W, 55-44
Why it matters: This has always been a big game, but recently it has become one of the biggest in all of college football. The term “bragging rights” doesn’t even begin to tell the significance of a game like this.
4 Key Players
Derrick Henry, RB – Since coming to Alabama, Henry has been in the shadow of other running backs. Despite not being the feature back in 2014, Henry led the Tide in rushing. This will be the year we truly see what Henry is made of; the Tide needs him this year more than ever.
A’Shawn Robinson, DT – After leading the Tide in sacks in 2013, Robinson didn’t record one in 2014. Robinson has trimmed down a bit this year and is attempting to re-focus on pass rushing this season. Robinson seems like a man on a mission.
Reggie Ragland, LB – Ragland has improved every season and now finds himself as a senior leader of this defense. Ragland could find himself used some on the outside this season, which could put him in a position to have a bigger impact for the Tide.
Reuben Foster, LB – Foster is practically a household name, but he has yet to blossom on the field. With the departures in the LB corps and with him maturing as a player, the time is now for Foster.
5 Bold Predictions
5. Lane Kiffin will be hired as a head coach after the 2015 season.
If Bobby Petrino can find someone to hire him, so can Kiffin, who loses a ton of offensive firepower this season. The better the Tide offense plays, the more Kiffin will ease himself into various head-coaching conversations. Expect Kiffin to be a head coach for someone in 2016.
4. Derrick Henry will rush for 1,500 yards.
Henry had over 900 yards last season while not even getting the most carries on the team (he was second). Imagine what he will do this year with the football in his hand more often…
3. Alabama will beat Auburn by three touchdowns.
There is no rationale behind this prediction. It’s just something that I feel. In 2013, Auburn shocked Alabama in Jordan-Hare. This year, the Tide returns to the scene of the crime. Both teams will be up for this game, but Alabama will be the one to cash in its revenge chip.
2. Alabama will lose to Georgia in October but beat the Dawgs in a rematch in Atlanta.
The regular season meeting between Alabama and Georgia will be one of the best games of the college football season. Georgia will win that game in dramatic fashion.
Given time to stew over the loss, Saban will use this to his advantage. By the time Georgia and Alabama meet again (for the SEC championship), the Tide will be playing their best football of the season and they will nip the Dawgs in the Georgia Dome. Good luck matching the quality of the 2012 SEC Championship Game, though.
1. Alabama will win the SEC and play in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
Last year, Bama was upended by eventual national champion Ohio State. This year, the Tide will get past the national semifinals and into the finals. But… they will again fail to win the championship (as will 126 other teams). However, they won’t lose to Ohio State. To find the answer, be sure to read our staff predictions next week, just before the kickoff of the 2015 season.
