Oregon Ducks
2014 Record: 13-2 (Defeated Florida State in the Rose Bowl / College Football Playoff semifinals; lost to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game)
1 Burning Question: What Will The Ducks Do In The Year After Marcus Heismanicus Maximus?
Marcus Mariota was a special player, an historically great player, and a very rare figure in the larger history of college football when viewed through a few specific prisms. As talented as Vernon Adams is, and as well as Mark Helfrich coached the Ducks last season, it is still going to be difficult to match the 2014 season, because a leader of Mariota’s caliber in the sport’s most important on-field position is just not replicated from year to year.
Oregon might achieve at the level it did a season ago, but the Ducks will need the other parts of their roster to stay healthy this time. If the offensive line suffers the injuries it did in the early-to-middle portion of last year’s schedule, Adams probably won’t be able to carry the Ducks on his back (or wings, as it were) the way Marcus Mariota did in 2014.
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2 Key Stats to Pay Attention To
12 — The number of sacks Oregon allowed in a two-game stretch against Washington State and Arizona last season, with Jake Fisher out of the lineup. The Ducks almost crashed last season when their anchor lineman and left tackle got hurt. When Fisher returned against UCLA, the Oregon offense looked like the Oregon offense again. Especially in the first half of the coming season, Adams will need his best offensive linemen to stay healthy. There’s no need to embellish the point — it speaks for itself.
13.6 — The differential in points per game allowed between the Ducks’ first and last five Pac-12 games in 2014. Oregon played 10 conference games last season — nine regularly-scheduled contests plus the Pac-12 Championship Game. In the first five games, new defensive coordinator Don Pellum (taking over for Nick Aliotti in that capacity after Aliotti retired) watched Oregon concede 153 points, for an average of 30.6 per game. In the next five-game stretch, however, the Ducks clearly fixed what was wrong, allowing a total of only 85 points, for an average of 17 points per game. Oregon then took the ball away from Florida State a lot in the Rose Bowl. (Seminole fans will say that FSU gave the ball away to UO, and they wouldn’t be wrong, but the Ducks still put their stamp on that game with their defense.)
Coaching continuity carried Oregon last season. Helfrich found himself after an unsteady 2013. The transition from Aliotti to Pellum went smoothly. This program appears to be maintaining its winning internal subculture, the one Chip Kelly instilled in Eugene. Maintaining that continuity lies at the heart of what “Win The Day” is all about.
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3 Games That Will Make or Break the Season
2015 Full Schedule
9/5 — Eastern Washington
9/12 — at Michigan State
9/19 — Georgia State
9/26 — Utah
10/3 — at Colorado
10/10 — Washington State
10/17 — at Washington
10/29 (Thurs.) — at Arizona State
11/7 — California
11/14 — at Stanford
11/21 — USC
11/27 (Fri.) — Oregon State
Thursday, October 29, at Arizona State
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 5-0
Last Year’s Result: Did not meet last season
Why it matters: It is perfectly reasonable to say that the visit to Michigan State on Sept. 12 is more important than a cross-division game in the league, but keep two things in mind:
1) Michigan State did not miss the playoff last year because it lost to Oregon; the Spartans missed the playoff because they lost to Ohio State at home. Oregon can lose in East Lansing this year and make the playoff if it goes 10-0 in the Pac-12. If Oregon wins at Michigan State but loses two Pac-12 games, it is harder to see the Ducks in the playoff. This game comes after a bye week, too, so Oregon needs to take advantage of that fact on a tough road trip.
2) In college football, it remains true that losing early and winning late puts a team in better position to make the playoff. See the Ohio State Buckeyes last season, and ask them how much losing to Virginia Tech really hurt them in the end.
Saturday, November 14, at Stanford
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 3-2
Last Year’s Result: W, 45-16
Why it matters: Stanford will be just a little motivated (ya think?) to avenge last year’s beatdown in Eugene. The Ducks have to be ready to absorb Stanford’s power and patience on the road. With Washington rebuilding and California a not-yet-proven team, this remains the Pac-12 North game of the year.
Saturday, November 21, USC
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 3-2
Last Year’s Result: Did not meet last season
Why it matters: If the Ducks lose to Stanford, they will almost surely have to go 8-1 in the Pac to win the North, hoping that Stanford loses twice in other games — which is very possible. If Oregon is unbeaten in the Pac after Stanford Week, this game will have College Football Playoff implications.
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Chris Seisay
4 Key Players
Vernon Adams, QB — Other than having to replace the first non-USC Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from the West Coast since Jim Plunkett of Stanford in 1970, Adams really doesn’t have a lot on his plate this season, now that he passed that math test.
Byron Marshall, BALLER — “Baller” is not an official position, but Marshall needs to be one as a runner and receiver. He will be asked to fill both roles, after all. With Thomas Tyner out for the year, Royce Freeman will be this team’s between-the-tackles rock-pounder. Marshall needs to be the devastating playmaker on the perimeter, giving the Ducks a lot of home runs so that Adams doesn’t have to dink and dunk the ball down the field all the time.
Chris Seisay, CB — When Ifo Ekpre-Olomu missed the Rose Bowl with an injury, Seisay stepped up and helped contain Florida State’s receivers. DeForest Buckner is the best NFL prospect on Oregon’s defense, but everyone knows that. Seisay is the player who has received less hype, but his role in knitting together the back seven will be just as important as anything Buckner does this season.
Matt Hegarty, C — Hroniss Grasu, now in the NFL, was an outstanding center for the Ducks. Getting Hegarty as a transfer from Notre Dame should give this team a huge lift by filling Grasu’s spot. This could be the lineman who acquires Jake Fisher-level centrality for Oregon in 2015.
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5 Bold Predictions
5. Oregon will lose to Michigan State.
The Spartans might miss Ed Davis in the middle of their defense against UO’s offense, but with this being a road game, it’s a big ask to expect Vernon Adams to outplay Connor Cook, or even battle him to a draw.
4. Oregon will beat Arizona State.
The Ducks have not lost to the Sun Devils since 2004. Getting the bye week before the trip to Tempe will be huge. The Ducks will also love the fact that they play at night — recall how much Notre Dame hated playing a day game in Arizona heat in early November last season. The Ducks usually play ASU at night in Tempe, and it’s more than a mere coincidence that they’ve played well in those contests.
3. The Ducks will lose to Stanford.
The Cardinal have a lot of roster questions to address, but by playing Oregon at home and in the middle of November, Stanford gets a scheduling break. Stanford needed to play the Ducks later in the season, and that’s how it will be. Advantage, Card.
2. Oregon will hammer USC and win the Pac-12 North with two Stanford losses.
The reality of Stanford football is that it regularly plays close games. Are the Cardinal airtight enough to live on the right side of a close margin every week? No. Stanford will finish 7-2 in the Pac; Oregon will go 8-1 and earn a short hop to Santa Clara on Dec. 5.
1. The Ducks will win the Pac-12 by beating Arizona State a second time. They and Auburn will both sit on the fence for the No. 4 spot in the College Football Playoff.
The SEC and Pac-12 could both produce a champion with two losses this season. If the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 champions reach the clubhouse with 12-1 or 11-1 records, either the SEC or Pac-12 champion could be left out. Oregon and Auburn could be the teams jockeying for the No. 4 spot in early December. Such a scenario might be just the thing to move college football to the eight-team playoff many people dread, but which is likely to become a part of our lives in the next 10 years or so.
