Welcome to our very first College Football Playoff Bubble Watch here at Bloguin. What I do will be relatively simple. I will provide you with the resumes of every single team still in contention for the CFP so that you can compare. After presenting the resume, I will give a short analysis explaining what it means. I will divide teams into three sections. The first will be those who control their own destiny, the second will be those “on the bubble,” and the third section will be those teams technically still alive but whose Playoff hopes are very slim.
I considered adding other metrics like rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency or yards per play. At the end of the day, however, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I will stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you how many remaining games against Top 25 teams each contender has.
(Please note: the “Top 25 Remaining” section does not count conference championship games until such a game is finalized.)
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes.
This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25” teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
Bubble Watch: Week 10
First, let’s identify which teams are still alive, no matter how slim their chances are at this point. I still have Houston on the list because it feels unfair to eliminate an undefeated team, but once you see the Cougars’ resume, it will be apparent why they will not be able to approach the top four. There are 21 teams still alive in this race. This past week, we eliminated Memphis, Florida State, Penn State, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss (and Toledo, but the Rockets never really had a chance anyway).
AAC: Houston
ACC: Clemson, North Carolina
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Big XII: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: None
Pac-12: Utah, Stanford, UCLA
SEC: Florida, LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State
Sun Belt: None
Independents: Notre Dame
Teams That Control Their Own Destiny
Clemson’s resume has that tremendous win over Notre Dame, but is a little thin in the middle after that. Still, that low number of teams played outside the Top 80 means that Clemson has avoided true cupcake games as much as possible. The final three weeks of the regular season could add three more to that tally, though (South Carolina is right on the border), and Clemson’s SOS will plummet from now until the end of the season. It won’t matter, however. If the Tigers win out, they’re in the Playoff.
That SOS number is not pretty, and the Buckeyes have faced exactly one Top 40 opponent to date (Penn State). That will change in November, though. We will see that SOS number skyrocket even before the Buckeyes get to the Big Ten Championship Game. If Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes are in. Right now the resume is very sparse. The committee would have been justified in putting them a lot lower than No. 3.
It might surprise some people, but the Hawkeyes have a pretty solid resume. The SOS number could be better, but they have two Top 25 wins, both on the road. Add a Big Ten championship to this resume and it will be pretty hard to argue with.
West Virginia is just barely back into the Top 40 this week, which makes this resume look a little more decent. Still, that’s not a win the committee will value much. If Oklahoma State (or Baylor) runs the table, they’re in the Playoff, but the Big 12 is four very good teams on top of a ton of mediocrity–and those top teams didn’t help themselves very much with their nonconference schedules.
I was surprised to see the committee rank Baylor so high this past week. This resume should really be in the same range as Houston’s, not ahead of Iowa’s. I guess the eye test is part of the process, which Baylor has passed swimmingly so far. Baylor’s SOS number should be respectable after facing three ranked teams in the final three weeks of the season, but right now this resume is nothing to write home about.
On the Bubble
Undefeated power conference teams will never be left out of the Playoff, but this Alabama resume should make us think twice about that. There are six wins against Top 40 teams on here and nothing really to hold it down at all. The only reason that Alabama is on the bubble instead of controlling its own destiny is that a few other one-loss teams, Stanford and Notre Dame, have resumes which aren’t too far behind.
Notre Dame has three Top-25 wins, something no one else in the country can match right now. The SOS numbers will go down a little with upcoming games against Wake Forest and Boston College, but those are followed by the season-finale showdown against Stanford. If Notre Dame ends up with four wins against Top 25 teams and its only loss is by two points to No. 1 Clemson on the road, it will be very hard to keep the Irish out.
The Pac-12 failed to live up to its hype this year, which is why this resume looks more sparse than you might expect. Still, the Cardinal’s final three games are against Top 40 teams, with a conference championship game likely after that. If David Shaw’s team wins out, it would be very difficult for this to not be a top-four resume.
LSU’s resume is solid. It has a very good SOS number, some good wins at the top, and no real cupcakes to weigh it down. Also, LSU’s final three opponents are Top 40 teams. Win those games, and get a tiny bit of help with an Alabama loss, and Les Miles’ team will be right back in the Playoff hunt.
That is a pretty good SOS number, even if the resume is a bit lacking in terms of quality wins. The season-opening victory over Michigan looks strong and a potential Pac-12 Championship Game against Stanford would be a great way to make a huge impression on the committee during the season’s final week.
Don’t let that apparent lack of cupcakes on Florida’s schedule fool you. ECU, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky are barely inside the Top 80. This resume could show five wins against 81+ teams when all is said and done. However, if you add in a win over Florida State and then an SEC Championship Game, this becomes a resume which has to be taken seriously, even if it is a lot more bubble-worthy than the bubble teams above it.
The good news for Michigan State is that it still controls its destiny in the Big Ten. The good news is that if they win out, the Spartans’ resume will probably include two wins over Top 10 teams when the season ends. The bad news is that they will need some help to get back in the Playoff race. That Nebraska loss is ugly, and other teams are ahead in the pecking order. Michigan State needs the Big 12 champion to end with a loss, or it will be very difficult to find a spot for them.
Oklahoma has three games remaining. Those three games are Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State. If the Sooners win those, this decent resume will become very strong. Oklahoma is the only one of the Big 12 contenders which scheduled well out of conference. It shows, in both the better SOS numbers and the better overall resume picture.
Still Alive
TCU is here instead of “on the bubble” because, even with two Top 25 wins, this resume will lack real meat. The Horned Frogs will trail other one-loss teams such as Notre Dame, Stanford, and Alabama. TCU will need some help if it wants to really get back in the picture, but they’re not completely out of it yet.
This resume is interesting. The four cupcakes don’t look good, though Maryland might be able to squeeze back inside the Top 80. If Michigan can win the Big Ten, that could mean two added Top 10 wins to this resume. That, plus BYU probably sneaking into the Top 25, will earn the Wolverines some serious consideration with the committee, especially considering the fact that one of their losses was a non-conference game against a Top 10 team.
This resume would cause a fascinating debate if the Tar Heels were still undefeated. While the committee showed last year that losing non-conference games to Power 5 teams won’t hurt you too much, this resume just has nothing on it. Even if the Tar Heels win out, we’d be looking at a win over Clemson and then a whole bunch of wins without any real value.
This has the potential to be a very strong resume if the Wildcats can get into the Big Ten Championship Game. Without it, this just won’t be enough. Unfortunately, that means one more Iowa win will eliminate the Wildcats. This resume is still strong, though. Win out and a New Year’s Six bowl (likely the Fiesta) is very much in play.
This resume is pretty sparse, but that didn’t stop the committee from putting UCLA at No. 23 last week. If you add wins over Utah and USC, and then avenging the loss to Stanford in the conference championship game, then this resume might become one that needs to be taken seriously. Until then, though, UCLA is very much on the outside looking in.
This resume has no real meat to it. Beat Alabama this week, and then there will be a resume to discuss here. Lose to Alabama and the Bulldogs are officially out of the CFP race.
Even if you add a win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, this is not a Playoff resume. We’re going to wait two weeks before making it official, because it would be unfair to punish Wisconsin for scheduling Alabama, but this resume really has nothing on it. Maybe next year, Badgers.
This resume won’t be awful if wins over Memphis, Navy, and Temple are all added in. However, it would still be a far cry from any undefeated power conference resume.
