When we did our Bubble Watch last week, we still had 21 teams left alive in the College Football Playoff race. After a chaotic week last week, though, we are now down to 16.
Utah, UCLA, Mississippi State, and LSU were all eliminated with losses. LSU’s resume actually isn’t bad; it compares relatively well with the other two-loss teams we have still alive, which is now down to Stanford and Michigan. However, because the Tigers are now eliminated from winning the SEC, we can’t see them getting into the Playoff as a two-loss team which didn’t win its conference. The resume just isn’t good enough to be considered for that.
Our final two eliminations were Northwestern and Wisconsin. Northwestern has a decent resume for a two-loss team; but, like LSU, it isn’t good enough to get consideration without a conference championship to back it up. Also, Wisconsin is just a week away from being eliminated; we are just waiting for the Badgers to be eliminated from the division. Still, their resume has no meat to it whatsoever. Even if we add a ranked win over Northwestern this week and a season-ending win over Ohio State, it probably isn’t enough to get them into the Playoff. That said, we’ll leave them on this list until Iowa wins one more game and officially clinches the division.
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Let’s just get a quick review of how this works.
I considered adding other metrics like rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency or yards per play. At the end of the day, however, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I will stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you how many remaining games against Top 25 teams each contender has.
(Please note: the “Top 25 Remaining” section does not count conference championship games until such a game is finalized.)
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes.
This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
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Bubble Watch: Week 11
First, let’s identify which teams are still alive, no matter how slim their chances are at this point. I still have Houston on the list because it feels unfair to eliminate an undefeated team, but once you see the Cougars’ resume, it will be apparent why they will not be able to approach the top four. As mentioned above, there are 15 teams still alive in this race.
AAC: Houston
ACC: Clemson, North Carolina
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin
Big 12: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: None
Pac-12: Stanford
SEC: Florida, Alabama
Sun Belt: None
Independents: Notre Dame
Teams That Control Their Own Destiny
This resume isn’t as amazing as most think. The win over Notre Dame is great but there’s not too much meat on it otherwise. Luckily for Clemson, that doesn’t matter. Win three more games and the Tigers are in the Playoff.
This resume is nothing to write home about. It’s a middling SOS with no wins over anyone better than Penn State. That won’t matter if the Buckeyes win out, though. The Buckeyes control their own destiny–and it all starts this week with Michigan State.
Three top-40 wins is not too much to write home about, but when it’s attached to an undefeated record it becomes something that will get into the Playoff. A win in the Big Ten Championship Game would cement it.
The computers can’t agree whatsoever on what Oklahoma State’s SOS is. Still, the non-conference SOS is pretty bad no matter how you look at it. Oklahoma State is in if it stays undefeated. Lose a game, though, and it gets very tough. It’s feast or famine for the ‘Pokes, just like it pretty much was for Baylor.
People think Alabama gets unfair credit based on name recognition and that’s why the Tide are the top one-loss team in the Playoff chase. Well, their resume says they completely deserve it. The computers added Arkansas as a top-25 team, but seven top-40 wins is ridiculous. This resume is insanely good. Alabama could survive a loss to Auburn and this resume would still be competitive (though behind Notre Dame if the Irish win out).
On The Bubble
This is a solid resume and a win over Stanford would only make it better. That game has lost a little luster, but this resume still looks top-notch. Temple’s loss made this resume a little weaker, but the Irish have the best loss possible and Navy is looking like a top win.
A trend you will notice with Big 12 teams (and we noticed it last year too) is that the computers can’t agree on their SOS. Oklahoma has a good nonconference win over Tennessee and the potential for three ranked wins in conference. This is a good resume if Oklahoma wins out–and Oklahoma is looking good in terms of doing it so far.
Michigan State might be on the bubble, but its resume will be strong if it wins out. The Spartans would have as many as four ranked wins, including two wins over top-10 teams. The loss is a little ugly, but it’s a better one-loss resume than anyone else can claim–except maybe Alabama.
This resume is a lot of meh right now, but a win over Florida State will make it look better. A win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game will make it very hard to beat.
Still Alive
Michigan’s resume lost a little bit of luster when BYU lost to Missouri last week, which took away UM’s chance of ending with four ranked wins. Still, this resume has the potential for two top-10 wins to end the season. If that happens, it could be hard to keep the Wolverines out. Of course, they’ll have to root for Ohio State to win this weekend so that Michigan can get into the Big Ten Championship Game. Oh, what a dilemma for Michigan fans.
This resume, with an awful SOS and two wins over FCS teams, doesn’t really look like a Playoff resume even if the Tar Heels win out and beat Clemson in the process. The loss to South Carolina is ugly, but it still was a P-5 nonconference game. If North Carolina wants in the Playoff, it’ll have to get in on the eye test. The Tar Heels have been bludgeoning teams recently, and if they continue that, maybe they’ll have a chance.
TCU survived a major scare from Kansas, but the Horned Frogs are looking less and less like a Playoff team every week. Unless they turn things around in a major way this week, TCU will be eliminated when it meets Oklahoma, anyway. Even if the Frogs win out, though, it could be tough for TCU to get in.
I thought of eliminating Baylor after the loss to Oklahoma, but there is still enough time in the season for crazy things to happen to get in. Still, even if the Bears beat TCU and Oklahoma State, this might not be the best of resumes. Now they need Oklahoma to lose a game just to get back in the picture.
This resume actually compares pretty favorably with Baylor’s and TCU’s below them, even with the two losses. Once you add in a top-10 win over Notre Dame and a Pac-12 Championship Game, Stanford could have as many as six top-40 wins. Don’t let anyone else fool you; the Cardinal are not yet dead in the slightest.
The only non-cupcake wins on this resume are Purdue and Illinois. Even if the Badgers beat Northwestern and Ohio State, this resume isn’t enough. However, a massive infusion of chaos will give them a chance, so we’ll just wait one more week before eliminating them.
Houston is still alive and in search of more chaos among the foremost contenders. This is not a resume that will get into the Playoff without tons of help. The computers are still counting Memphis as a top-25 win, which is pretty good. A win over Navy will help too. Still, Houston is way on the outside looking in.
Group of 5 Resumes
We are adding a section to Bubble Watch this week. We are bringing up the resumes of the teams competing for the Group of Five access bid to see who is most likely to play in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. Instead of looking at how many ranked teams these teams will play, we will use the last column for what is probably a more relevant stat for the committee: record against Power 5 teams.
The Cougars are clearly in the driver’s seat as the only undefeated Group of 5 team. A Black Friday (November 27) showdown with Navy looms.
Navy also controls its own access bowl destiny. I’m counting the game against Notre Dame as a P-5 game, which is probably how the committee will view it too. That’s a pretty good SOS, though, and a win over Houston will make this resume unimpeachable.
Temple’s resume is better than any other non-AAC resume that we’ll see in this half of the page, but if the Owls lose to Memphis, it could get really dicey.
Toledo’s resume is good, anchored by that win over Arkansas. It may even be able to stack up with Temple’s if the Rockets win out. Unfortunately, they need help in the form of a Northern Illinois loss just to win the MAC. They need to beat the next team on our list this Tuesday.
Bowling Green’s nonconference schedule included three Power 5 teams plus Memphis. That is strong. It will resonate with the committee. Unfortunately for the Falcons, their two P-5 wins are over teams outside of the top 80 (Maryland and Purdue). If they are up against Temple for this spot, I don’t know if it’s a guarantee that it goes to the Owls.
The Huskies control their destiny in the MAC, but they would need USF to be the AAC champions to even have a chance at this bid. The loss to Boston College probably killed their chances at the access bowl bid, but we’ll keep them on this page for now.
This resume has three P-5 teams on it and a few wins against non-cupcakes, but that loss to Indiana might end up being what costs the Hilltoppers a potential bid.
There’s a win over Purdue on this resume, but nothing else to speak of. That SOS number will rise minimally with remaining games against Western Kentucky and the Conference USA Championship Game (if the Thundering Herd get there), but this resume has nothing on it. Even the Mountain West champion would probably have a better resume (see below).
Boise State only makes this list because of its name, as the “safe” option for the committee if everything goes crazy. The Broncos’ resume is nothing to speak of.
Air Force has a good nonconference schedule but no valuable wins to speak of. The Mountain West is weak this year, and it is really showing in these resumes.
It would take a miracle for Arkansas State to lose a game and not win the Sun Belt. It’s unfortunate for the conference; Georgia Southern or Appalachian State might actually have a resume worth considering.
