There are just two weeks of college football left before the selection committee has to pick the four teams for the College Football Playoff. Well, I’m here to help the fans (and the committee) out in deciding how to compare these teams. It’s Bubble Watch time. There are 11 teams still alive in this week’s CFP Implications, so I will present the resume for all 11 of those, as well as Oklahoma State’s and USC’s for comparison. I will also present several resumes competing for the Group of 5 New Years’ Six spot.
Let’s give a quick review of how this works.
I made a slight change this year, adding a statistical metric. On the one hand, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I want stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play. Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. In the end, I have decided to add the rank in offensive and defensive yards per play, which gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes.
This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
Bubble Watch: Week 13
I have several sections this year, ranging from the teams that control their own destiny to those that are full-fledged #TeamChaos members. The odd part about this year is that there is no true bubble. The gap between the top teams and the second level is still vast, as evidenced by Kirby Hocutt’s comments this week. All of the “Bubble” teams are really those that need help from teams losing in front of them, not the usual Bubble of judgment calls we’ve seen in the past. Also, keep an mind that the order of the teams is intentional. Even within each category, I’m ranking each resume from strongest to weakest.
Controls own destiny:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Alabama |
0-0 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 5-25 | 1 | 6.6(11) | 3.8(1) |
Alabama’s SOS fell a tiny bit after playing Chattanooga, and three of those four Top 25 wins are precariously towards the back of the Top 25, but it doesn’t matter. Alabama is basically a Playoff lock if it wins one out of its last two games. That’s how good this resume is.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Michigan |
3-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 20-50 | 1 | 6.1(27) | 3.9(2) |
Those three Top 10 wins will keep Michigan in the Playoff race. Win two more games for five Top 10 wins, and it’s a lock. That resume may even raise a debate about overtaking Alabama for the top seed.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Clemson | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 25-35 | 0 | 6.1(28) | 4.6(10) |
Clemson’s resume has taken some major hits in recent weeks, but this is still more than enough to get in at 12-1. A fourth ranked win is probably not coming, though, so Clemson would like to see Florida State not lose to Florida this week (or at least not lose too badly). This resume once looked incredible, but November has not been kind. Clemson probably needs to win out, because 11-2 leaves the door open for a second Big Ten team or for Colorado to slide on past.
Probably in if they win out:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Ohio State | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 1-25 | 1 | 6.2(24) | 4.2(4) |
Especially after what Kirby Hocutt said this week, Ohio State really should be in the “controls its own destiny” camp. But I’ll play it safe and put the Buckeyes here. After the Michigan game, Ohio State is looking at a consensus Top 10 schedule and four (maybe only three if Minnesota beats Nebraska) Top 25 wins, including three over the Top 10. This is one of the best Playoff resumes we’ve seen in the last three years, and Ohio State is unquestionably one of the best four teams in the country if it beats Michigan.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Washington |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 25-80 | 1 | 7.1(5) | 4.6(11) |
The Huskies probably control their own destiny, but this resume makes it a little nervous. Utah and Stanford are barely ranked, and Washington State probably won’t be with another loss. If not for Massey loving Washington’s SOS, that range would be 60-80. This resume isn’t pretty, but two more wins are probably enough to get in the Playoff. Probably.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Wisconsin |
0-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 10-30 | 0 | 5.2(85) | 4.6(9) |
Wisconsin is a fascinating example of how to skew SOS numbers. Playing two Top 5 teams gives a real boost — enough to outweigh the five cupcakes the Badgers have faced (three in conference). This resume looks weaker with LSU’s loss to Florida this past week, but three Top 25 wins, a Big Ten title, and the only two losses being to Ohio State and Michigan should be enough to earn a Playoff spot if Clemson or Washington slips up again (or if Wisconsin beats Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game).
On the Bubble:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Florida | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 35-60 | 2 | 5.3(77) | 4.3(5) |
I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect Florida to stay on this list this week. The numbers are still not as good as some of the contenders, especially that 1-2 mark against the Top 40. But win the last two against Florida State and Alabama and this resume will be right in the thick of things.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Penn State | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 10-35 | 0 | 6.2(26) | 4.7(15) |
Playing Rutgers might hurt a team’s SOS, but it did wonders for Penn State’s stats. The defense moved up ten spots in yards per play given up. This resume is still pretty bare in terms of quality wins, but Penn State does have the single best win of any team in the country so far.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Colorado |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 10-40 | 1 | 5.6(63) | 4.7(17) |
This Colorado resume is a lot stronger than many think. The SOS numbers are excellent and should be consensus Top 15 if Colorado beats Utah and faces Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Colorado’s offensive numbers aren’t great, but the defense is strong. With two more wins, Colorado could look at being 4-2 against the Top 40 (Utah and/or Washington State probably won’t stay in the Top 25 with another loss). The committee has consistently had Oklahoma ahead of Colorado, but it’s hard to see how it can stay that way if both win out. The only problem for the Buffaloes is that if Michigan doesn’t win the Big Ten, Colorado doesn’t have a great argument — because of both overall resume and head-to-head — why it should be in the Playoff ahead of the Wolverines.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Oklahoma |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 15-55 | 1 | 7.3(3) | 5.7(74) |
I know that Oklahoma passes the eye test well and is on an eight-game winning streak, but this resume is a bit disturbing. The Big 12 is weak this year. There aren’t many quality wins to be had. Oklahoma is one West Virginia upset away from ending the season 1-2 against the Top 25, assuming the Sooners win Bedlam. It’s hard to see how this resume is better than any of the four Big Ten teams ahead of it. Why should 10-2 Oklahoma be ahead of the loser of Ohio State vs Michigan? If you can’t answer that question, it’s hard to see how the Sooners get in the Playoff.
Needs a Miracle:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Oklahoma State |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-2 | 4-0 | 50-85 | 1 | 6.6(10) | 5.8(76) |
I don’t even know what kind of miracle could get Oklahoma State into the Playoff. Sure, this team could end up 3-0 against the Top 40. But we’re looking at a team with two bad losses and one of the worst defenses in the country. Even Bedlam won’t move those SOS numbers into anywhere good, though it may be a respectable range, like 40-60. Oklahoma State needs to hope the committee changes its mind about how it views the Central Michigan loss, but that Baylor loss is going to look plenty ugly on its own by the end of the season.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| USC | 2-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 1-10 | 0 | 6.3(18) | 5.1(29) |
This resume is fascinating for a lot of reasons. It is one of the best schedules in the country. Two Top 10 wins is better than every other school in the country besides Michigan, Ohio State, and Houston. Unfortunately, those three September losses kill this resume. USC getting in would send a message that September doesn’t matter. I can’t look at this resume and see a reason why USC should get in before the Ohio State vs Michigan loser. And that will ultimately keep USC out of the Playoff. (I will give USC fans this, though: If USC beats Washington again, Oklahoma wins Bedlam, and Ohio State beats both Michigan and Wisconsin, and Clemson loses two more games, USC would actually have one of the best four resumes in the country. Like the title of this section says, it would take a miracle.)
Group of 5 race
I was debating how many teams to compare here, and I’ll just stick with the three ranked by the committee right now. (Houston has been eliminated from the AAC West and therefore is ineligible to be the Group of 5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.) If USF manages to win the AAC East, though, I will definitely add its resume in next week. And if Toledo beats Western Michigan, then we’ll have to start looking at the resumes of the Conference USA teams and Temple — not to mention Wyoming if they win the Mountain West Mountain Division.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Boise State | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 6-0 | 65-85 | 0 | 6.9(8) | 5.0(25) |
Some people might be mad that the committee keeps Boise State ahead of Western Michigan, but looking a those yards per play and SOS numbers, there is a pretty clear gap. Not to mention, of course — and probably the most important fact — Boise State’s ranked win over Washington State. The Wyoming loss in Laramie doesn’t look nearly as bad now that Wyoming also knocked off San Diego State there. One important thing the committee will be discussing if the race comes down to Boise State against Western Michigan: would Western Michigan beat Wyoming in Laramie? (Of course, this will all be moot if Wyoming wins this weekend, because then Boise State would be eliminated from the Mountain West title.)
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Western Michigan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 8-0 | 110-128 | 0 | 6.8(9) | 5.5(56) |
I know that Western Michigan feels disrespected by the committee, but this is literally one of the weakest schedules in the country. Marshall didn’t even get in the rankings for a few weeks in 2014 for being undefeated with a slightly-better schedule. Win out and that undefeated looms large, but is this resume really better than Navy’s? That’s very difficult to say.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Navy | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 4-0 | 65-90 | 0 | 6.3(23) | 6.1(120) |
I have Western Michigan ahead of Navy for one reason and one reason only — Navy has one of the worst defenses in college football. That stat will give the committee members some serious pause before putting Navy against a highly-ranked team in the Cotton Bowl. The wins are so much better than Western Michigan’s, though, that’s for sure.
