This was a weird week for the Bubble Watch.
All of the contenders still alive last week had such a huge lead on the field that we can’t really eliminate most of them. No, Florida and Notre Dame are not still in contention — it certainly seems that way, at any rate. However, if we get two or three upsets this coming week, everyone assumes Ohio State is right back in the mix. When we present the resumes of Notre Dame and Florida, it is hard to see how they are not in the mix if Ohio State still is.
Oklahoma State and Baylor were truly eliminated last week as they each picked up their second loss. Each team only has one ranked win and another top 40 win after that, which just isn’t enough to be considered once their weak nonconference schedules are taken into account. We also strongly considered eliminating Florida because of the eye test. They could end up with three ranked wins (Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama), and that win over Alabama would be huge, but I doubt it outweighs almost losing to Vanderbilt and going to overtime against Florida Atlantic.
We are going to put their resume on this page just for comparison, but unless they dominate Alabama there is really zero chance the Gators get the nod. Michigan was also eliminated with its loss to Ohio State.
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Let’s just get a quick review of how this works.
I considered adding other metrics like rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency or yards per play. At the end of the day, however, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I will stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s final game.
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes.
This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
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Bubble Watch: Week 13
We have ten teams remaining on this list. Oklahoma does not belong in the Bubble Watch, though. The Sooners are a lock for the College Football Playoff. The same is true for the Michigan State-Iowa winner. The loser is out. Notre Dame remains on the list because its resume compels us to look at the Irish, even if most people assume the chances of actually making the Playoff are pretty close to zero at this point. Florida is not on this list, but we will show the Gators’ resume anyway because, well, it can’t hurt.
AAC: None
ACC: Clemson, North Carolina
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa
Big 12: Oklahoma
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: None
Pac-12: Stanford
SEC: Alabama
Sun Belt: None
Independents: Notre Dame
Locks
Based on how they closed the season, their good SOS, and their 5-0 record against the top 40, the Sooners are a lock for the Playoff. This resume won’t be a lock every year, but with Notre Dame falling out of contention this week and Stanford’s resume getting a lot weaker due to the Pac-12 cannibalizing itself, this resume is a lock in 2105.
Teams That Control Their Own Destiny
Clemson has two top-10 wins but also played a lot of teams in the bottom third of college football (they were fortunate that Georgia Tech snuck back into the Top 80). If both Clemson and Stanford were to lose this week, the Tigers’ resume stacks up pretty solidly against Ohio State’s. Clemson has an extra good win but more cupcake wins and a weaker SOS. Clemson is in with a win, but they might still be in with a loss too.
People keep asking what Alabama’s best win is. The simple answer is that you don’t need a win against a top-10 team when you have seven wins over top-40 teams. That is stronger than anyone else in the country. It’s well ahead of almost everyone else on this list.
What’s the most impressive thing about Michigan State’s resume? Both of their cupcake wins (Rutgers and Purdue) were conference games. Michigan State played four top-80 teams (including a ranked Oregon team) in nonconference play. All four of MSU’s nonconference opponents have at least seven wins. That’s a really respectable stat that would have given Michigan State the benefit of the doubt, not that the Spartans need it. Beat Iowa and they’re a lock; lose and they’re out.
The SOS number isn’t great, but it’s win and get in for the Hawkeyes. A loss, even a close one, will push them completely out of contention.
On The Bubble
The Buckeyes are relying on the eye test and the fact that they are probably the most talent-laden team in the country. One of the teams ahead of them has to lose, but if they do the Buckeyes might have a serious chance. Clemson’s resume is probably still better than Ohio State’s if the Tigers lose, but if Alabama loses I am not sure that Stanford has the resume to jump the Buckeyes. If both Stanford and Alabama loses, what other choice is there? Florida will have the better resume, but will the committee really take a team that beat Vanderbilt by two and needed overtime to beat FAU? I highly doubt it.
It is amazing how much the Pac-12 cannibalizing itself has destroyed this resume. Stanford once looked like their resume would compete with a one-loss Big 12 champion’s portfolio. Now, it doesn’t look like it can compete with Ohio State’s resume. The SOS numbers are solid, but if they beat USC again the Cardinal will be down to Notre Dame as their sole ranked win. Washington’s demolition of Washington State last week moved the Cougars from inside the top 25 to outside the top 40. I’m also not sure they can jump Clemson if Clemson loses. It’s unfortunate for the Cardinal, but a Rose Bowl is nothing to sneeze at.
North Carolina probably belongs closer to Florida and Notre Dame than in this section. Look at the resumes. What about this, aside from the lack of a second loss, is better than Notre Dame’s? North Carolina’s sole top-40 win is against 8-4 Pitt. Here is the biggest problem for North Carolina, though: Even if the Tar Heels win the ACC Championship Game, why exactly is their resume better than Clemson’s? I don’t see how the Tar Heels get in, short of blasting Clemson to the tune of something akin to 59-0. (Yes, that’s an intentional reference to Ohio State-Wisconsin a year ago at this time.)
Not Quite Dead
The more I look at this resume, the more I wonder why it isn’t better than Ohio State’s. If Alabama and Stanford lose, it will be close between the Irish and Buckeyes. Notre Dame has the extra loss but several extra good wins. If Temple beats Houston in the AAC Championship Game, the Irish will have a better SOS than the Buckeyes and two more ranked wins. Conventional wisdom has Notre Dame being dead right now. But we’re just looking at the resumes here, and it’s hard to see why.
Upon further review, Florida’s resume is dead. Maybe Georgia sneaks back into the top 25 and gives Florida three ranked wins, but that will not be enough to overcome how bad the Gators have looked in the process. Still, being SEC champion carries a lot of weight, as does beating Alabama. If they put on an impressive-enough showing, this resume will be looked at.
Group of 5 Resumes
There is no reason to present resumes for who will get the Group of 5 access bid to a New Years’ Six game (either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl) anymore. The race is over. The winner of the AAC Championship Game between Houston and Temple is in. Maybe if Western Kentucky had beaten Indiana the Hilltoppers would have a chance, but they didn’t. It will be either Temple or Houston.
