This week got off with a bang, with Louisville crashing out of the Playoff race and Troy falling out of the Group of 5 auto-bid race. In short, Thursday night was a bad night for ranked teams that lost to Clemson by six points. (I don’t think this means that Auburn should be on upset alert against Alabama A&M, but who knows?) Additionally, just about everyone in contention lost last week (okay, slight exaggeration, but it sure felt like it), which means that top teams have fewer rooting scenarios this week, while the teams looking to catch up have more life. In a week without too many blatant high-profile game, here are the rooting interests for every CFP contender.
College Football Rooting Interests: Week 12
ACC
Clemson — Clemson’t path is clear, now. It’s win out or bust. Maybe some crazy chaos could let Clemson survive a second loss, especially because Clemson’s three ranked wins will still be one of the best in the country, but that would take a ton of chaos. Clemson fans only have to care about three more games in this year’s Playoff picture — Clemson against Wake Forest, Clemson against South Carolina, and the ACC Championship Game.
Big 12
Oklahoma and West Virginia — Both of these Big 12 schools are still members of #TeamChaos. Houston’s win over Louisville was good for Oklahoma, but it also just shows how far behind the Sooners are. Houston has the same number of losses as Oklahoma and has better wins. Even if Oklahoma closes the season with wins over West Virginia and Oklahoma State, Houston could have a legitimate argument for being ahead of Oklahoma. That won’t happen, of course, but the point stands. No Big 12 school has the quality wins necessary for a Playoff run. One of these two just needs to win out and hope that the other contenders keep dropping like flies. Maximum chaos is the Big 12 fight song right now. Oh, and Oklahoma should hope that TCU doesn’t upset Oklahoma State — if the Horned Frogs win that game, Oklahoma could run the table in the Big 12 and end up with only one ranked win out of it.
Big Ten
Michigan — Michigan is fascinating. It’s hard to imagine a team that loses two of its last four games getting into the Playoff, but it’s possible for the Wolverines. Michigan is a lock if it wins out. If it loses one more game, though, especially to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Wolverines could have four Top 10 wins. That will be hard to leave out. Michigan fans, you’re rooting for Colorado against Washington State to keep the win over Colorado looking better. Also, you’re rooting against Clemson. Another Clemson loss would essentially lock up a second Playoff bid for the Big Ten, which Michigan could definitely be in position to receive. Washington losing wouldn’t hurt either, but that doesn’t feel realistic against Arizona. The easiest of all would just be to win out, though.
Ohio State — the Buckeyes are a unanimous No. 2 in the human polls, the CFP rankings, and all of the old BCS computer rankings. That’s right, if this was the BCS, Alabama vs Ohio State would be as unanimous a National Championship Game as we’ve ever seen. And yet, there is clamoring that an 11-1 Ohio State could get left out of the Playoff. Honestly, I don’t see it. I just don’t. But the Buckeyes should be pulling hard for Rutgers against Penn State this week, just to feel safe. Honestly, though, another Clemson or Washington loss would also lock an 11-1 OSU team in the Playoff — and have the added bonus of not risking a loss against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. So it can go either way for Buckeyes fans. If you think that Clemson and Washington both win out, root for Penn State to lose. If you’re not worried about that, though, you may as well root for Penn State to win and avoid the risk of injuries and/or a loss in an unnecessary 13th game.
Penn State — All right, I’ll give in. Penn State is officially alive in the Playoff race again. The Nittany Lions don’t have the resume for it, though. Two Top 10 wins shouldn’t be enough to counter a blowout Top 10 loss and a bad loss. But in this year’s lineup, with contenders falling like flies, Penn State has a chance. I’m not sure the Nittany Lions will get in ahead of a 2-loss Pac 12 champ, though, so Penn State fans should root hard against Clemson this week. If the Tigers win the ACC, it’ll be tough finding another team for Penn State to jump to get in the Playoff. The Nittany Lions aren’t jumping Ohio State — they might have the head-to-head, but the full body of work just isn’t close to superior. I guess Penn State can also root for Indiana against Michigan this week, which would open up a path for the Big Ten title (if Michigan beats Ohio State next week) that will also take Michigan out of serious contention, but that seems pretty unlikely.
Wisconsin — The Badgers almost control their own destiny, but not quite. If Ohio State is 11-1, it’s hard to see an 11-2 Wisconsin team — that lost to Ohio State at home — getting in the Playoff over the Buckeyes. Wisconsin is rooting against Ohio State. Wisconsin could also be a second Big Ten team in the Playoff, which would require either Clemson or Washington losing again. That’s it, though. As long as one of those three teams doesn’t run the table, Wisconsin will be in the Playoff if it can win out.
SEC
Alabama — Alabama has no rooting interests. The Tide are in the Playoff as long as they don’t lose their last two games. (I mean, a guess a loss to Chattanooga could knock them out of the Playoff, but it’s just not happening.) There’s nothing else to say here. Beat either Auburn or win the SEC Championship Game and the Tide are Playoff-bound.
Florida — The Gators aren’t in as awful a Playoff position as you could imagine. Sure, Florida has no resume to speak of. But closing with LSU, Florida State, and Alabama (if Florida beats LSU) builds a resume really quickly. If Florida wins all three of these games, it will probably only take one Washington loss to put Florida in the Playoff. Add a Clemson or Wisconsin loss to that and it’s all-but guaranteed. Now, the odds of Florida winning out are tiny. But if Florida beats LSU in the early afternoon, Gator fans should know to pull for Arizona State and Wake Forest when night rolls around.
Pac-12
Colorado — Welcome back to the land of the living. The Buffaloes are officially Playoff contenders. Colorado needs to win out and get some help, though. That started with Louisville losing to Houston. But Colorado also needs either Clemson, Wisconsin, or Penn State to lose again. It’s looking a week ahead, but Colorado also needs Michigan to beat Ohio State in two weeks. If Colorado is the Pac-12 champion and is having its resume compared to a 10-2 Michigan (who beat Colorado), the Buffs will be very nervous. Also, root for Stanford over Cal. This resume needs all the help it can get, and right now Stanford is a ranked win. Keeping Stanford ranked until the season ends would be a big boon for Colorado.
Washington — The Huskies have the worst non-conference schedule in the country, but might quietly rack up four ranked wins in-conference. It won’t be enough for a two-loss Washington team, though. Its rooting interests are clear: win out, or your Playoff hopes are gone. There is also still a slight risk of 11-1 Ohio State, along with 11-2 Wisconsin, getting in ahead of Washington, but that seems remote. Still, a loss by either Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Clemson would take away any nervousness.
MAC
Western Michigan — I won’t eliminate an undefeated team, but Western Michigan has no Playoff chance. In fact, looking at its resume in the Bubble Watch, it’s easy to see why Boise State is ahead of WMU. Honestly, WMU is in danger of being jumped by Navy or South Florida (if either of those finish 11-2) before all is said and done. Western Michigan needs Wyoming to beat San Diego State this week, to hopefully keep Boise State out of the Mountain West Championship Game (Boise State and Wyoming each have one conference loss, but Wyoming has the head-to-head tiebreaker). Also, to feel safe about its potential Cotton Bowl bid, Western Michigan really wants to see some AAC carnage. Not too much carnage, though. Navy has to win at least one of its last two AAC games — because if Houston is the AAC champion, the Cougars will, without question, get the Group of 5 Cotton Bowl bid this season.
