Conference affiliation for independent FBS schools always lurks in the background when college football is discussed. It moves to the foreground when a high-profile figure chooses to mention the subject. Such was the case this past summer, as Gary Pinkel of Missouri and Dabo Swinney of Clemson both said that Notre Dame needed to join a conference.
Yes, let’s say it a thousand times in bold print: Notre Dame does not need to join a conference. Notre Dame is an exceptional university, an exceptional case study on so many levels. The prestige, the money, the television presence — Notre Dame commands them all without having to join a conference.
Immediately, one can see and appreciate that Notre Dame inhabits a world different from other FBS independents past and present.
The stories of one current independent and one recent independent both show that for schools not named Notre Dame, it’s a lot more difficult to remain on an island. One school jumped off the island and moved to the conference mainland. The other is still on that island, wondering if it needs to catch the next boat to a large continent.
The fascinating part of this whole story? A Mormon man might have given America’s foremost Mormon university a good reason to join him and his program on the college football mainland.
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Ken Niumatalolo, for those who don’t know, is Mormon. Yet, the fact that BYU has become a cradle of quarterbacks and a program with a pass-first culture (much as USC is a program with a pro-set and/or “non-spread” culture) has kept the coach from wanting to move to Provo to take over the Cougars. (That, and the fact that he’s pretty darn happy coaching in Annapolis, among other things.)
On Saturday night, Niumatalolo led Navy into an entirely new circumstance, something the program — which played its first game in 1879 — had never encountered before. The Midshipmen played a first-place team in the same division of their conference.
Indeed, this was new: Navy had never been a member of a conference until it joined The American this summer. For more than 130 years, the program existed on that independent island, and to be sure, the program (like Notre Dame) didn’t need to move to the mainland for many of those years. When Navy was a national power, its name was able to carry the program to Cotton and Sugar and Orange Bowls in the 1950s and 1960s. Navy faced Texas in a “2 versus 1” Cotton Bowl in 1964. There was no need to shed independence in those days.
Even 10 to 15 years ago, moving to a conference didn’t make sense for Navy. The landscape was fluid, given the ACC’s poaching from the Big East in 2004 and 2005. Moreover, Army’s foray into Conference USA did not work well at all for West Point. The idea of moving might have made sense, but there was no natural landing place for a program which — in 2005 — was just beginning to regain its footing under Paul Johnson.
After a decade of high-level results, however, and with the college football bowl and playoff structures being what they are, Navy saw the shifting tectonic plates in the sport and reacted. The Midshipmen found The American — a geographically sensible conference, albeit with an occasional trip to Texas or Oklahoma, which gave the program an appropriate mix of challenging yet manageable opponents. Navy could win at a reasonable rate in the conference, and winning it would offer a very legitimate chance of a New Year’s Six bowl.
It’s true that few predicted The American’s rapid ascendancy in the Group of Five realm. The idea that four teams would enter November with realistic New Year’s Six aspirations would have struck most college football pundits as wildly optimistic back in late August. In this sense, one cannot quite say that “Oh, everyone should have seen this coming with Navy.” One should not engage in “American revisionist history,” so to speak, with the AAC.
However, one can just as easily — and validly — reply by saying that if Boise State was not on top of its game, The American had the best chance for an NY6 berth of any Group of Five conference. Marshall, a foremost contender last year from Conference USA, lost its top talent. Toledo actually performed above expectations before losing to Northern Illinois last Tuesday. The MAC’s best chances in bowl and playoff competitions rested with the Jordan Lynch NIU teams and Darrell Hazell’s Kent State club. Fresno State, which came within one win of a BCS bowl a few seasons ago, has tumbled to the bottom of the Mountain West. Genuinely, the AAC had the best non-Boise State odds of entering the NY6 winner’s circle.
Navy, by making that simple choice to join a conference, instantly increased its access to the NY6 structure, and to an exponential degree.
Ken Niumatalolo’s coaching has now taken that level of access to a whole new level. In actual football terms, Navy is now in the center of the NY6 conversation. Should the Midshipmen win the next two weeks against SMU and Tulsa (they will be favored in each game), their Nov. 27 game at Houston will have AAC West Division title implications. If Houston beats Memphis this upcoming Saturday and the Mids take care of business the next two weeks, Navy-Houston would be a winner-take-all game for the AAC West title. The victor would reach the inaugural AAC Championship Game and almost certainly play for a New Year’s Six bowl berth. Just to make sure, Navy would then need to beat Army if Boise State or Toledo was still on the periphery of the debate.
This is a pretty remarkable story, is it not? Navy, after more than 130 years of treating college football in a particular way, changes its approach, and instantly makes itself far more relevant on a national level in November than at any prior point over the past 30-odd years or so. I was just a wee lad in the late 1970s and very early 1980s, when Navy alumnus George Welsh coached the Midshipmen to a series of successful seasons. Therefore, I don’t know how central those Navy teams were to the national college football conversation. However, I can say that Navy hasn’t had as much to play for in November over the past 30 years than it does now.
In 1963, independence fit Navy like a glove. Today, conference affiliation and New Year’s Six access give the school a chance to play for something bigger in November and early December.
One can calmly absorb all of this information and then look to Provo, Utah, where BYU — with a solid record of 7-2 and a win over Boise State itself — enters the stretch run of its season. The Cougars’ two losses came against power conference teams. BYU has played and beaten multiple AAC teams, too: Cincinnati, East Carolina, and Connecticut.
The question has to be asked — it can’t be avoided: What if BYU had this 7-2 overall record with a 5-0 AAC record? What if those three wins against AAC teams were accompanied by two more victories over SMU and Tulsa?
BYU would be playing for a New Year’s Six spot. If the Cougars hypothetically managed to win the AAC, they’d certainly be in the thick of the hunt. Other events — one more loss by Toledo and Boise State — would further cement BYU’s position.
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Those who say — quite legitimately, I might add — that BYU gets great TV-friendly opponents as a result of its independent affiliation are not wrong. However, how many people are talking about BYU right now, compared to Navy? What is BYU playing for right now, compared to Navy?
That one simple choice — choosing to join a conference — is fundamentally what separates one current independent (BYU) from a former independent which finally took the conference plunge (Navy), and is reveling in the new opportunities that decision has created.
A Mormon man has shown America’s foremost Mormon university what’s possible when you leave the island of independence and move to the mainland.
