It reads either like some doomsday movie or some odd scientific theory, but it’s just claimed another pelt in Les Miles of LSU: The Saban Effect.
LSU let go of Miles after just over 12 years at the place, leaving behind a 114-34 record overall, including 62-28 in an SEC West that grew from simply good to utterly brutal during his tenure in Baton Rouge.
During his time, LSU finished worse than 3rd in the division once, and worse than second four times. The only problem? Three of those four times were the last three seasons, and this one was trending to be another.
Surely, there are reasons you can find as to why Miles’ time was justifiably up in Baton Rouge, but the underlying theme remains the same: there are no longer elite jobs in the SEC West … until Nick Saban retires.
If you knock out Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa, the Tide finished no worse than second in the West all of ONE time and have won the division six times in his eight seasons there, again, aside from the first one. If you go back to Saban’s time at LSU, they won the division twice in his five seasons there.
The point is, whether you think LSU was right to let go of Miles when they did or not, the SEC West is just chasing ghosts until Saban exits stage left. Think: Miles AVERAGED 10.4 wins per season at LSU, including BCS championship and an appearance in another.
Now, the task becomes for some soul, stepping into that role where 10 wins per season isn’t going to cut it. When you move on from someone in a relationship, job, whatever, part of the thought process needs to be “who is the possible replacement?” And if you’re someone considering a relationship, job, whatever, you always have to ask yourself if you’re stepping into a role where you’re already prevented from succeeding.
The truth is, during the SEC’s run of dominance, coaching was the chief reason the conference had run away from the pack at times. Recruiting is a cute excuse for it, but the reality is, players go play for great coaches and great coaches get the most out of top shelf recruits.
Folks, Saban and Alabama have run them all off. The Tide need no introduction, but four straight division titles and six of the last eight in what at the time has been easily the toughest division in college football has a way of running folks off. Fan/administration expectations just won’t allow anyone to hang around for any sustained period of time at a top-flight program if you’re not winning even division titles.
But the problem is, as long as Saban is at Alabama, that becomes impossible. It hasn’t kept the SEC West from being strong, but you can see the erosion hitting its nadir. Ole Miss was smoked out by Florida State this season. LSU dropped a close game to Wisconsin.
Auburn has steadily decreased in success since Gus Malzahn’s first year.
LSU has fallen on “hard times,” the kind of which where you win 8-9 games at minimum and people are still angry.
Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M are intermittently good and intermittently mediocre.
Big, national platform wins have always been the temporary elixir for the rest of the SEC to point to when having to answer why they can’t catch those darn Tide. The second those stopped happening en masse, this was bound to happen.
The hard truth is, these are great jobs relative to what you or I do and the money we make, but in the world of college football, they’re death knells on a career. If Miles wants to coach again, someone will pick him up, but it wasn’t long ago that LSU was fighting to keep Miles from onlookers (mainly Michigan) snatching him away.
Now, four games in after a snap that was one second too late, Miles is gone and LSU is on the lookout for the white whale.
There is no white whale down south, at least not until Nick Saban decides he’d rather do something else on Saturdays in the Fall. If 10.4 wins a year isn’t going to cut it, what will?
The Saban Effect, coming to a career near you.
