Sorry, Iowa State fans, but once again, you’ve hired the wrong guy. While he’s a talented coach, Matt Campbell was not the best choice to lead the Iowa State program.
That’s not to say that Campbell isn’t an outstanding coach. In four years at Toledo, he’s guided the Rockets to three nine-win seasons and three bowl appearances. He’s also led the Rockets to victories over Arkansas, Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Navy.
More impressively, he’s 4-0 against archrival Bowling Green, which has appeared in the last three MAC Championship Games.
It’s tough to argue with those results.
So, why do I think this wasn’t the best hire for Iowa State?
For starters, he never won a championship at Toledo. Yes, the wins over BG were nice, but the Rockets went 0-4 against Northern Illinois under his watch. While that might not sound like a big deal, it’s worth noting that if the Rockets had beaten the Huskies in 2012, 2014, or 2015, they would have played in the MAC Championship Game.
Of course, those weren’t the only “win and you’re in” games Campbell’s Rockets struggled with. In 2013, Toledo only needed a win over 4-7 Akron to go to a bowl game. UT lost that game, 31-29, and ended up missing the postseason altogether. The Rockets faced a similar obstacle this season, needing only a win over Western Michigan – a team it had beaten five straight times – to play for the MAC championship for the first time since 2004. Once again, Toledo came up short, dropping a 35-30 heartbreaker that ended any chance of a league championship or a potential NY6 bowl bid.
Are all of these losses Campbell’s fault? Of course, not! But the fact remains that Toledo couldn’t take care of business when it was the favorite.
That last sentence should concern every Iowa State fan. Let’s be honest: the Cyclones aren’t going to be favored in very many games over the next few years, especially in conference play. On those occasions when they are, it’s imperative that they come out of the game with a “W.” The inability to do this over the last three seasons is why ISU continues to miss the postseason, which is ultimately what led to Paul Rhoads’ dismissal.
Even if Campbell’s Rocket squads had emerged victorious in every “must win” scenario, I’d still have concerns about him taking over in Ames. After all, Iowa State isn’t exactly an easy place to win. Since the poll era began in 1936, the Cyclones have finished the season in the top 25 just twice: once in 1976 under the leadership of Woody Hayes’ successor at Ohio State, Earle Bruce, and once in 2000 under Dan McCarney. Not surprisingly, Bruce is the only coach during that span who finished with a record over .500, compiling a 36-32 mark in his six seasons in Ames.
Yet, Bruce didn’t finish with a winning record in conference play, nor did the legendary Johnny Majors, who preceded him in Ames. The last Cyclone coach to do that was Sam Willaman, who guided the squad to an 11-10-2 mark in league play from 1922-’25.
Even I wasn’t alive back then!
What does any of this have to do with Matt Campbell?
Simply put: He has a monumental task in front of him. Campbell is being asked to take a perennial doormat and mold it into a team that can compete with the likes of Oklahoma, Baylor, and TCU on a weekly basis.
The jury is out on whether or not he can do that. Sure, as Toledo’s offensive coordinator, he helped transform a punchless Rocket offense into one of the most potent units in the MAC, but it was head coach Tim Beckman’s leadership which turned things around at UT. Given that Campbell inherited a great situation from Beckman, we don’t know how quickly – or even if – he can mold the Cyclones into a consistent winner.
That’s why hiring Dino Babers or P.J. Fleck would have made more sense for Iowa State. Babers inherited a struggling Eastern Illinois program that went 2-9 in each of the two previous seasons and guided it to back-to-back berths in the FCS playoffs in his first two years. At Bowling Green, he took over a team that many expected to struggle due to inexperience and guided the Falcons to consecutive MAC Championship Game appearances.
Like Babers, Fleck walked into a tough spot at Western Michigan. Although he went 1-11 his first season, he’s molded the Broncos into a contender. He finished 12-4 in MAC play over the past two years, and he landed in a three-way tie atop the West Division this fall thanks to a 35-30 victory over Toledo on Friday. Barring something chaotic, he’ll have guided the Broncos to back-to-back bowl bids, which is quite an accomplishment for a school that had reached the postseason only five times in its entire history prior to his arrival.
Based on their successful track records at previous stops, Babers and Fleck seem like better choices for the massive rebuilding effort that’s needed at Iowa State. Unless the Cyclones start playing in bowl games on a regular basis, they’ll remain way behind the other teams in the Big 12.
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Will Campbell get the team back to the postseason?
Using history as a guide, the odds don’t look very good. After all, even well-known coaches such as Earle Bruce and Johnny Majors had trouble winning on a consistent basis.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Campbell turn things around. From his time as a player and a coach at Mount Union, to his successful tenure as the Rockets’ head coach, he’s always found a way to win. While my criticism about him not winning the big one is certainly valid, it’s worth noting that people said the same thing about both Bobby Bowden and Tom Osborne in early in their careers. Each coach went on to win multiple championships, giving those naysayers the proverbial finger.
Only time will tell if Coach Campbell will do the same.
