With last Thursday’s 26-19 win at Pittsburgh, North Carolina now has itself a week away from potentially taking a stranglehold on the ACC Coastal Division.
In order to do so, it has to get past an old rival in Duke.
Everyone loves a Duke-Carolina game. ESPN always loves to put it in primetime. Dicky V will be there. Coach K against Roy Williams, Dean Smith, or whatever prominent coach…
… wait, we are not talking about hoops?
Even with Saturday night’s highway robbery in Durham against Miami, the Blue Devils have an outside chance to still win the ACC Coastal. Duke can get back in the hunt with a win over the Tar Heels, creating a bunched-up race with North Carolina and Pitt at the top of the division.
Both schools from the Tar Heel state stand above perennial favorites such as Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech in the standings. It’s the big plot twist in the Coastal this season. Much has been made about how Miami has never won the ACC Coastal, but North Carolina has never won the division, either. Being able to reach the ACC Championship Game before Miami does would be an immensely satisfying achievement for Larry Fedora and his program. That goal is so close to being met, but as Carolina fans know, the division isn’t won until the fourth-quarter clock hits triple-zero and the ACC replay booth doesn’t have to make another ruling.
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UNC and Duke, the centerpieces of this weekend’s ACC Coastal showdown, took early defeats this season. However, they have both been strong ever since. Duke fell to the Hyde half of Northwestern, while North Carolina lost a one-possession game to South Carolina in the first week of the season.
If North Carolina beats Duke, it controls its own destiny, having just Miami, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State on the schedule, three very winnable games. If Duke wins, it sets up a third straight week with an ACC Coastal battle royale, as the Blue Devils play Pitt in week 11.
A year after a disappointing 6-7 finish in 2014, the Tar Heels have fielded a much more balanced offensive attack this season. Quarterback Marquise Williams is still asked to do a lot, but he has some help this season. Last season, the North Carolina offense featured Williams tossing 428 passes in 13 games for over 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns, while throwing nine interceptions.
This season, Williams has been asked to do less with the passing game, and his stats have improved. Williams has increased his completion rate for the third straight season in just 180 attempts through eight games. His yards per attempt are up and his overall rating is up. Williams has already thrown 11 touchdowns, but his seven interceptions are a concern. However, three came in the opening loss to South Carolina. Williams has minimized mistakes since then, and that’s a foremost reason the Tar Heels have risen to the top of the Coastal. This Saturday against Duke, there’s no bigger key than for Williams to avoid the turnover bug.
Williams has also picked up 528 yards and five more scores with his legs, putting him on pace with his 2014 numbers. However, his per carry number is up by nearly three yards, allowing him to take less of a punishment each game.
The running game has been a key catalyst for UNC this season, helping Williams to take fewer hits and allow other players to share the workload. This year, Elijah Hood has come on strong. Last season, Williams was the leading rusher by over 200 yards. This season, Hood has done the majority of the work in Chapel Hill, rushing 119 times for 744 yards and eight touchdowns through the eight games. The emergence of the running game has been the key to the team’s success on offense.
However, the main key to the turnaround for North Carolina is a defense that went from one of the worst in the ACC to one of the team’s newfound strengths. After bringing in coordinator Gene Chizik in the offseason, the Tar Heels have allowed over 20 points in only one contest this fall, a 38-31 win over Georgia Tech.
Beyond UNC itself, another mild surprise is that the Coastal has outplayed the Atlantic for the most part. Outside of Clemson and Florida State, the Atlantic has not shown a pulse all season. Louisville has been a mess on both sides of the ball, and North Carolina State is 1-3 in conference after starting 4-0 in non-conference play.
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For the third straight season, David Cutcliffe has Duke looking good. Coming off back-to-back 10- and nine-win seasons, the Blue Devils look like a strong bet to repeat that in 2015. However, Duke is doing this by replacing the connection of Anthony Boone and Jamison Crowder from last season. Boone tossed for 2,700 yards on the nose and was the second-leading rusher on the squad, while Crowder was the leading receiver by nearly 300 yards.
This season, quarterback Thomas Sirk has completed 60 percent of his passes for 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The receiving unit has five players with at least 160 yards and four players with at least two receiving touchdowns. Sirk is the leading rusher at 485 yards, but three players have at least 300 yards on the ground. The wealth is being widely distributed in this year’s Duke offense.
Meanwhile, the defense (with a lack of help from the special-teams unit and ACC referees) has allowed 43 and 30 points in back-to-back games; it had not allowed over 20 in any other game this season.
While it is doubtful that the eventual Coastal winner would be able to beat Clemson or Florida State on a neutral field, it only takes once to wreck the ACC’s hopes of getting a team in the playoff. Clemson is that last best hope. The survivor of this eventual three-team gauntlet in the Coastal (with Pitt also in the mix) will have its chance, but last Thursday may have reduced it to a two-team race.
Those two teams play this Saturday in Chapel Hill… it’s a big Duke-UNC game, and Kenan Stadium — not the Dean Dome — is the theater for this latest ACC drama.
