It was the noted philosopher Robert Goulet who once said, “On a clear day, you can see forever and ever, and evermore.”
The middle of October is generally not a time when you can see forever in college football.
This year, that statement seems to be especially resonant.
We are (sad to say) at the midpoint of the 2015 college football season. Seven full weeks have come, and seven are left. Army-Navy isn’t so much a “week-15” game as it is its own event on an island. Essentially, there are 14 weeks this year, and we’ve finished half of them. Sure, some teams have risen and others have fallen. Some teams are in the driver’s seat for New Year’s Six bowls, and some are either out of the running or about to be. Yet, in terms of the playoff field, very little appears to be set in stone.
Going over the playoff possibilities for just a little bit of time pounds this point home.
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The various conference races provide the one modest measure of clarity in this 2015 campaign, but that clarity is expressed in the form of choices between or among teams. The Pac-12 race is clear, but it’s a race involving Stanford, Utah, California, and Oregon. The ACC race is clear, but it’s a competition between Florida State and Clemson. Which team wins that competition — and with no losses or one loss after 13 games — matters. Why? Clemson beat Notre Dame. If the Tigers are the ACC champion with one loss, Notre Dame will have a hard time getting into the playoff. If Florida State not only wins the ACC, but does so with a 12-1 record (perhaps after losing at Florida), an 11-1 Notre Dame team would have a better shot.
Speaking of Notre Dame, if the Irish do go 11-1, that means they will have defeated Stanford. Therefore, if Stanford does play Utah for the Pac-12 title with two losses, Utah would almost certainly need to win that game in order to give the Pac-12 a playoff team. 11-2 Stanford would not get in over 11-1 Notre Dame.
As you can see, it’s complicated. It’s not just a matter of which teams win conferences, but with how many losses, and in light of what other results around the country. This is the process of moving parts, which will continue to unfold for a few more weeks before I will offer any votes on rankings or write any pieces about the order in which teams should be ranked. The process of ranking teams should not begin in earnest until November, and that’s a practice I’ll maintain as long as I write about college football.
What has to be kept in mind this week is that of the various teams competing for titles, most of them have either been playing less than brilliant football or have back-loaded schedules (or both). What Florida State has achieved and is achieving — remaining unbeaten in regular-season games since 2012 — is absolutely phenomenal. Still, the Seminoles have Clemson and Florida looming on the schedule, both away from Doak Campbell Stadium. You’re remembered very differently in a college football season if you go unbeaten, compared to losing twice. We’re just beginning to find out what Florida State is made of. Clarity is something we’ll gain in the future — to some extent on Nov. 7 (Clemson), but a lot more by the end of November — with Jimbo Fisher’s team.
For other teams, it’s a similar world, especially in the SEC.
You might recall the 2012 Mississippi State Bulldogs. They started 7-0 but then lost four of their last five plus the 2013 Gator Bowl against Northwestern to finish 8-5. MSU didn’t start playing lousy football; Dan Mullen’s young men simply ran into quality opponents, which they had largely avoided in the first half of the season. The backloaded (or at least increasingly tougher) schedule has instantly exposed and changed our perceptions of Northwestern. It will reveal a lot about the SEC West’s foremost teams.
LSU is unbeaten, but the Tigers have gaping weaknesses on special teams, and they don’t know what they’re going to get in the passing game from week to week. They now have to go to Alabama and Ole Miss, two teams which — in their own right — are still mysteries.
Ole Miss-Alabama is an unrecognizable game right now. The Ole Miss team which showed up on that night hasn’t reappeared since. The Alabama team which so badly mangled that game became the responsible team against Texas A&M this past Saturday. The Tide played the role of Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa. A&M played the role Alabama occupied against Ole Miss. How will these four teams — LSU, A&M, Bama, and Ole Miss — interact with and respond to each other in the next six weeks? Who has any clue? I sure don’t.
Iowa — much like Baylor in 2013 and Michigan State last year — will enter November without anyone having a sense of just how good the team is. Going 12-0 is going 12-0 — it’s a feat which always deserves the highest respect. Yet, going 12-0 against Schedule A could be a lot easier than doing so against Schedule B, and so far, Iowa is playing Schedule A, a favorable combination of contests which is 100-percent Ohio State-, Michigan State-, and Michigan-free, with no artificial flavors or preservatives.
Do we have clarity in terms of how we see the Hawkeyes right now? No.
Then there’s the Big 12. We think we know that Baylor-TCU is going to be a huge game, and it probably still will be. However, Oklahoma State gets both the Bears and Horned Frogs at home. Oklahoma has to play both BU and TCU. Will OU be the team which couldn’t tie its shoelaces against Texas, or the team which annihilated Kansas State on Saturday… AFTER a travel delay of over eight hours, the very kind of thing which would lead a pundit such as myself to conclude that the Sooners were in big trouble when that game began?
We’ve only just begun to learn about teams in this crazy and deliciously entertaining season. On a clear day… it will be Tuesday, January 12, when the season is done and dusted.
