In the realm of sports analysis, the “hot take” is a constant source of concern, frustration, or both. The easy opinion, the blurted-out incendiary statement, can gain so much traction even though (or perhaps, precisely because) its emphasis on creating an uproar militates against layered critical thinking.
Throwing down opinions without care for the craftsmanship involved in the construction of that thought is the “hot take” at its flamethrowing worst.
Yet, as much as opinions rile up fans and analysts, the use of facts can be just as much a source of contention and confusion.
This is powerfully true in college football, never more at this specific time of year.
*
“Our conference has X number of bowl teams!”
“Coach A won nine games! How can he be fired?”
“Team B has X number of top-40 wins this season, so it has objectively played high-caliber competition.”
All three of those statements (we’re assuming they point to precise statistics in the place of the letters provided — you could fill in blanks in various directions) contain assertions of fact. The facts are not in dispute. True statements exist.
The problem is that the factual assertions are used to either declare or imply a larger truth. This is how facts can be just as harmful as opinions in distorting reality and creating impressions which — though not necessarily wrong — might not convey the proper tone or contextual urgency of a given situation. For teams, programs and coaches, conveying the right tone and accurately representing the level of performance in a season are important. It’s vital to make sure that teams and coaches get due credit for what they accomplish, not less; it’s just as important to not inflate certain achievements. Mature societies do not bestow certain laurels on competitors unless or until they are earned and deserved. Giving someone top-tier awards or commendations for second-tier achievements does no one any favors.
With all of this in mind, let’s pick through some college football teams this season and — without using overly controversial examples — underscore the point that not all records are created equal. It’s rather self-explanatory.
*
Can we establish, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, that Oklahoma’s 11-1 is different from North Carolina’s 11-1? Can we more precisely realize that this is not a “Big 12 versus ACC” comparison so much as it’s a comparison of both conference and non-conference schedules? North Carolina played two FCS teams. Oklahoma visited Tennessee and did not play an FCS school. The Big 12 doesn’t have to be better than the ACC in order for OU’s resume to trump UNC’s portfolio; it merely has to be relatively equal (at worst). Due to the nightmare at Georgia Tech and the November collapse by Duke, the ACC can’t really make an argument that it is conclusively and indisputably better than the Big 12. OU’s 11-1 is better than UNC’s 11-1.
This should not be a controversial point.
*
Let’s take a couple of 10-2 records. Florida’s 10-2 takes a spot in the back of the line relative to other teams with 10-2 records. Stanford is a decent example — not perfect, but enough to make the point.
Both teams can point to pairs of losses against good teams. Florida lost at LSU and at home to Florida State. Stanford lost at Northwestern and at home to Oregon. If comparing those pairs of results, the one thing which stands out is that the Gators got blown out at home; Stanford barely lost. In isolation, no one would die on the hill of that specific argument. However, Stanford accumulates a lot of additional bite-size advantages over Florida.
They are:
* One more conference game means one less cupcake. Florida did not challenge itself out of conference beyond the annual rivalry game with Florida State.
* Stanford scheduled better out of conference with Northwestern and Notre Dame compared to Florida’s game versus the Seminoles. Stanford won one of its two important non-conference clashes.
* The rise of Washington State and the smaller but still real improvement of California, compared with the dramatic drop-off witnessed at Missouri; the substantial decline at South Carolina; and the continued struggles of Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Georgia, all point to the Pac-12 North being a definitively superior division than the SEC East.
Florida crushing Ole Miss at home is a better peformance than any single game Stanford played this season. That’s one argument in favor of the claim that the Gators are the better team. However, if forced to make the claim that Florida’s 10-2 is better than Stanford’s 10-2, you really have little to nothing else to lean on.
*
How about the 9-3 records?
This is shooting fish in a barrel.
Look at Georgia. Then look at Wisconsin.
Those are nothingburger 9-3 records.
Then there’s Michigan’s 9-3.
The Wolverines blew out Northwestern, blew out a decent BYU team, handled Penn State on the road, and lost three games all to high-quality opponents. Georgia’s loss to Tennessee drops the Dawgs down a notch. Wisconsin simply has no high-quality win to point to. This is a clear example of how all 9-3 records aren’t created equal.
Oregon offers a quality 9-3 record as well. Ole Miss fits the bill, too.
*
Among the 8-4 records, let’s see what we have.
Miami played an FCS school. UCLA did not.
Both teams beat one opponent which placed higher in the league standings — Miami won at Pittsburgh, UCLA at Utah. Based on Utah’s superior resume compared to Pitt, UCLA gets the better win in that game. It’s just one of 12, but it’s better.
Comparing other games on these competing 8-4 resumes, we find that UCLA defeated BYU out of conference. That’s better than Miami’s best non-conference win against Nebraska.
Miami’s conference schedule was slightly tougher on the top end — the Hurricanes played Clemson, North Carolina, and Florida State; UCLA played Stanford but avoided Oregon in the Pac-12. However, UCLA played one more conference game. Both teams got blown out when playing the best teams in their conferences (Clemson and Stanford). Miami suffered an additional blowout loss to North Carolina.
Both teams faced a divisional opponent which made a New Year’s Six bowl last season and failed to post a winning record this season. Arizona, at least, finished 6-6. Georgia Tech fell to 3-9.
In a comparison of divisions, the ACC Coastal has the single best team (North Carolina) and lacks a true doormat (Colorado), but the Pac-12 South, as mediocre as it was this year, was better from top to bottom and more balanced.
Miami’s one argument is conference strength of schedule. A fuller list of arguments and schedule comparisons reveals a noticeable — though perhaps not cavernous — space between Miami’s 8-4 and UCLA’s 8-4.
*
A few more comparisons without the exhaustive point-by-point explanations:
Duke’s 7-5 versus California’s 7-5.
Auburn’s 6-6 versus Washington’s 6-6.
Last but not least: Iowa’s 12-0 versus Clemson’s 12-0.
Not all records are created equal. Look beyond the numbers. Look beyond the facts.
The facts and the truth are often two very different things. They sometimes overlap, but they can also be mutually exclusive to each other.
