The California Golden Bears and the Oregon Ducks aren’t calling the shots in the Pac-12 Conference. The Utah Utes and Stanford Cardinal merit that shared distinction at the moment. However, when the 2015 Pac-12 is ultimately assessed on the gridiron, the boys from Berkeley and the young’uns from Eugene might become the central reference points in a larger argument.
Cal and Oregon truly are what I call “season shapers.” Conferences have their heavyweights and big dogs, but in terms of evaluating the strength and depth of a conference, the third through sixth teams need to be formidable instead of frail.
We’re about to find out in the coming weeks just how formidable or frail the Bears and Ducks really are.
Halfway through this season, we are all entitled to our opinions on various teams and whether they fall into the “pretender” or “contender” silo. In the coming weeks, our impressions of Berkeley and Oregon will either be reaffirmed or refuted, and the ultimate course of events will shape the season, as defined in this corner of the country. Other conference competitions — with their own dynamics — will involve their own season shapers. Collecting these stories across the country will give us the full measure and portrait of 2015 on the college gridiron.
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Before the season began, it was certainly legitimate to wonder if Oregon would find life to be nasty, brutish, and unbearable in a post-Marcus Mariota world. The early answer: It’s been far more unpleasant than even the most incurable skeptic could have imagined. Three losses in the first half of the season represent a bloodbath for coach Mark Helfrich. His team didn’t plummet further into the abyss last weekend, but that’s because Washington has an achingly youthful and underdeveloped offense, one which just wasn’t ready for prime time. Vernon Adams provided flashes of quality, but a 26-point performance is hardly the standard to which Oregon and Helfrich aspire.
The Ducks left Seattle with a 12-game winning streak over Washington… but a lot of questions about their competitive chops, with Mariota no longer able to carry the team on his back and mask a number of limitations on defense.
The hopeful portion of Oregon’s situation, part one: The Ducks get USC and Cal at home.
The hopeful portion of Oregon’s situation, part two: Adams might be able to get into a rhythm and become a top-flight quarterback before season’s end.
The negative portion of Oregon’s situation: Road dates at Arizona State and Stanford await; this schedule will show no mercy to the Ducks.
At any rate, they’ll earn what they get, be it renewed respect or withering scorn. In many ways, the Ducks are the Seattle Seahawks of the Pacific Northwest in college football: Used to riding high, they’ve lost the competitive formula for a number of years. In the next several weeks, will they collapse under the weight of all that has gone wrong, or will they get off the mat? The drama will be delicious, but the answers it provides will enable us to see if the Pac-12 is as deep as it claimed to be before the season began.
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Then comes California. The Golden Bears might have to visit Eugene later in the season, but with Jared Goff running Sonny Dykes’s offense, Berkeley has the gunslinger who can embarrass Oregon’s back seven. It’s really rather clear: You can undress the Ducks if you have a quarterback who can pitch the pill around the ballpark. Washington lacked that ingredient, but Cal doesn’t.
One question worth raising in regard to Cal is this: If the Golden Bears finish a strong second in the Pac-12 North, with Oregon a distant third, will national pundits automatically assume the Pac-12 is down this year? If Cal reaches a higher ceiling, that needs to be noted in the Pac-12’s favor, even while Oregon’s steep drop-off is held against the league.
This is why Thursday’s game at UCLA is so important for both Cal and the league as a whole. The Pac-12 is in danger of becoming Utah, Stanford, and the 10 dwarfs. The conference needs Berkeley and Westwood to produce a high-quality game more than anything else. The loser of that game needs to display resilience and strength throughout the month of November. The winner needs to maintain a general upward trajectory. If you put all those ingredients together in a bowl, you’ll get a recipe for a favorable evaluation of the Pac-12 in 2015.
It’s time for California and Oregon to decide how they — and the Pac-12 — want to be remembered this season. We’ll see how these season shapers redraw the narratives surrounding Larry Scott’s league.
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