In a college football season when everything has constantly been fluid, Stanford had built itself up surely and slowly. After looking mediocre at best against Northwestern in its opening game, Stanford rebounded and worked its way back into the top 10. Not only that, the Cardinal looked great in their wins. Aside from a two-point win over Washington State in Pullman, which looks more and more like a big win every week, Stanford beat every opponent it faced by double digits since the loss to the Wildcats in week one.
Then it all came apart Saturday night, collapsing into a pit of multicolored, Nike-fueled flames started, and finished, by Oregon. The Ducks, despite holding the ball for only 17:54 and running 38 fewer plays, did just enough to stay a step ahead of the Cardinal with help of three takeaways. The lead changed hands seven times.
Kevin Hogan threw for 304 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Christian McCaffery went off with 244 all-purpose yards and a score. Statistically, almost everything went according to plan for the Cardinal. It just wasn’t enough. It was not enough to beat an Oregon team that is a step down from the Oregon teams of the last seven or eight years. It wasn’t enough to salvage the team’s playoff chances.
The question now is: How will the Cardinal rebound? Stanford still has two marquee games left. The Cardinal get Cal next week for the Axe, and after the event known simply as “Big Game,” they host Notre Dame and could play spoiler for the Irish’s national title hopes. The problem though is that the Cardinal go from being hunted to hunter, and while that can be easier in terms of dealing with the stress of November football, it also means lower stakes.
Some might say that the Cardinal still have a shot at the playoff, but they are at the back of the line. Despite being more friendly to teams with losses, the playoff still unfairly punishes teams that lose games in November over teams that lose in September. Stanford was able to patch over the Northwestern loss, but this one will be front and center the last three weeks of the season like a pimple on the nose. Winning out the rest of the way would put the Cardinal (take a deep breath here…) in a position to be in a position to be talked about for the playoff, but they would need a laundry list of help along the way to get there.
The Cardinal still reside atop the Pac-12 North and can clinch the division with a win over Cal. Beyond that lies another season with lost hopes and a potential to have back-to-back seasons without double-digit wins. David Shaw has shown he can coach, but the loss to Oregon means this season now stands on a precipice. The greatest prizes are gone. The Pac-12 title is still within reach, but now the Cardinal have no remaining margin for error.
Cal will be coming to Palo Alto looking for blood. Whether or not Stanford stands up to the challenge of its archrival will show what type of team this truly is.
