One month down, two months to go until the Friday after Thanksgiving.
Baylor and TCU have so much to overcome in October and most of November, but for now, they haven’t fallen off the ledge, and they’ve painted different portraits in the process.
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For the third straight week, Baylor’s offense dismantled another opponent and the defense bent but didn’t break in a 70-17 win over Rice. On the opposite end, TCU’s high powered offense carried the squad completely to a somewhat fluky 55-52 win at Texas Tech.
However you get there, one thing doesn’t change: both squads are unbeaten and ranked in the top five in the nation.
The two Big 12 powerhouses have been taking completely different routes since the College Football Playoff committee decided to exclude each of them last season, following last season’s epic battle in Waco.
TCU rolled to a monster win over Ole Miss in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, thumbing its nose at the committee. On the other end, Baylor saw a repeat of the TCU game (only as the victim and not the victor) in a loss to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl, allowing three touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
The Horned Frogs saw an exodus to the NFL following last season’s single-loss campaign. They had to completely rebuild a secondary that was not that strong anyway, allowing 233 passing yards per game. The front seven had to confront the loss of Paul Dawson to the next level, but returned a strong group this season.
However, injuries have completely derailed what they are trying to do. In the past two weeks, against high-powered Texas Tech and SMU, the Horned Frogs have allowed 1,115 yards. This includes 330 passing yards against SMU and 392 through the air against the Red Raiders.
The defensive team for TCU reflects that walking-dead identity, in the aftermath of all these roster disruptions and diminishments. There is only one remaining defensive starter from the Peach Bowl due to those injuries.
The offense was expected to be the strength of the squad to begin with, and it has been. The unit returned much of its talent from 2014, including Heisman candidate Trevone Boykin. After tossing for 485 yards and four touchdowns against Texas Tech, Boykin has done nothing to hurt that candidacy. For the season, he has completed just under 65 percent of his passes for just south of 1,500 yards. He has thrown for 14 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions through four games. He has also rushed for two more touchdowns and 190 yards.
The moral of the story is that if Boykin can keep this train on the track and get to the Baylor game undefeated, he certainly deserves all of that Heisman hype. The main issue is that it will take around 500 yards and 50 points almost every week, certainly against the likes of West Virginia and Oklahoma.
While the TCU train is struggling to stay straight, the Baylor train is rolling downhill and looks like it could be unstoppable until it crashes into the Horned Frogs.
Though TCU has had to deal with some early-season issues, Baylor has seen nothing but smooth sailing on the field. Off the field, Art Briles has made waves with some comments. However, that is nothing abnormal, either.
The biggest question for the Bears was replacing all-everything quarterback Bryce Petty. Seth Russell hasn’t yet dipped his toes into the waters of the Big 12, but so far, he has not caused the slightest drop-off in Baylor’s production. Moreover, he might possibly be a slight upgrade. Russell has thrown an average of 10 incomplete passes a game through the first three games, totaling 995 yards, with a 15-4 TD-INT ratio.
The passing game has opened up the rushing attack with Shock Linwood, who is averaging 8.64 yards per carry. Translation: most times Baylor either passes or runs the ball, it picks up a first down.
Similar to TCU, the Baylor defense has faced some issues, with SMU being a part of the problem. However, it has been a bit less of a sieve through three games. Baylor’s defense has allowed 369 yards to SMU, 340 to Lamar, and 246 to Rice. One thing that stands out, similar to last season’s debate, is the weak schedule. TCU has played a stronger schedule, making the results at least somewhat skewed.
Both teams still travel to Oklahoma State, and TCU goes to Oklahoma. Those look like the most likely possibilities for a loss. Otherwise, both have a very good chance to once again enter their matchup undefeated with playoff aspirations. The two squads are on a collision course for the game at the end of November that is widely expected to decide the conference… if TCU is healthy enough to still field a team.
