So, this happened on Wednesday afternoon, although subsequent reports indicate the divorce is not yet final:
Per multiple sources, Kyler Murray's intention as of one hour ago and following a meeting with Kevin Sumlin was to transfer from A&M
— Billy Liucci (@billyliucci) December 16, 2015
Kevin Sumlin is trying to keep Kyler Murray in College Station, but the mere possibility that A&M could lose both Murray and Kyle Allen in a matter of days is rather remarkable… not in reference to the politics on the ground at A&M (which were volatile and disordered throughout the past season), but in a broader sense.
Texas A&M enjoys proximity to Houston and has the SEC brand to display to recruits. Allen and Murray were both coveted players. When Allen left, the door was seemingly open for Murray to become “The Man” for the next three seasons. The mere IDEA that he would leave under such circumstances is jarring. It certainly points to a dysfunctional situation. Perhaps Murray’s father is appreciably responsible for this situation, but just as surely, a readily available supply of playing time would normally make a quarterback in Murray’s position that much more intent on staying.
The simple possibility that Murray could be out the door — that he has reconsidered his collegiate career enough to even think of transferring — paints Sumlin and his program in a very negative light. This isn’t an ethical or behavioral observation; it’s merely a performance-based conclusion. If the environment is that unpleasant or that incompatible for Murray — even with Allen removed from the picture — something has to be very wrong in College Station.
In the short term, Sumlin is fighting to keep Murray. In a much larger context, Sumlin’s coaching staff and overall approach are not hitting the mark in AggieLand.
It all points to a fundamental talking point about the 2016 season: The SEC West is more likely to experience coaching turmoil than avoid it. That’s the early outlook for next year’s regular season.
QBs Sumlin has signed at A&M since 2012: Matt Davis (transfer), Hill (transfer), Kohl Stewart (MLB), Allen (transfer), Murray (transfer).
— Paul Myerberg (@PaulMyerberg) December 16, 2015
Sumlin’s situation is the picture of instability… and yet Gus Malzahn of Auburn will have a new defensive coordinator on board (now that Will Muschamp is gone), all while trying to rescue his tenure on the Plains by coaching a quarterback properly through a whole season.
Bret Bielema has to figure out how to coach a team in September and October. He knows how to win in November, but one month does not a season make. If the Hogs go 7-5 or 6-6 next season, there’s going to be some roast Pork sitting on that hot seat in Fayetteville. BERT might not get the pink slip, but he’d be coaching for his job in 2017.
Then there’s Les Miles, the SEC West coach who came the closest to being toppled this past season despite a career resume which dwarfs anything Sumlin, Malzahn, or Bielema have ever done.
Dan Mullen and Hugh Freeze are safe, but they face important 2016 seasons in terms of solidifying recent gains. The only SEC West coach who exists in a space of complete stability is Nick Saban of Alabama. The other six programs in the SEC West will all need to fasten their seat belts before the start of the 2016 campaign.
It’s very much worth noting that in 2012, the best Kevin Sumlin-Johnny Manziel Texas A&M team waltzed into Auburn and obliterated the Tigers. This result lent a lot of momentum to the forces which swept Auburn head coach Gene Chizik out of power.
In 2016, A&M-Auburn certainly owns the look and feel of a game which will get the loser fired, or at the very least, send the losing coach a lot closer to a tipping-point moment in his tenure.
The LSU-A&M and LSU-Auburn games should also play a role in affecting coaching situations 10 to 12 months from now. Arkansas’s games against LSU, A&M, and Auburn will also be a part of this very volatile mixture.
The best bet at this point is that one or two coaches will tumble from their seats of power. However, consider the “ACC Coastal wheel of destiny scenario” (which never quite comes to fruition, by the way):
What if the Mississippi schools both rise to the top three in the SEC West alongside Alabama; LSU limps to 8-4, 4-4 SEC; and the other three schools finish no better than 7-5 overall?
Bielema might be safe in that situation, though discussion about his long-term fit in Fayetteville would certainly emerge. All in all, that scenario would likely get three SEC West coaches — Miles, Malzahn and Sumlin — fired.
Get your marshmallows and graham crackers ready, folks.
The 2016 SEC West season will be hot, hot, hot.
