Three writers that can’t quite agree on anything are ready to sling mud at one another once again in a three part weekly roundtable after a way too long hiatus.. It’s time for Phil Harrison, Bart Doan, and Terry Johnson to solve the world’s problems one first down at a time in the heartland. It’s the weekly B1G Uglies series.
Question: Does the Big Ten deserve to get two teams into the College Football Playoff?
While it sounds easy to say that no conference deserves two teams in the field, there are always exceptions to this rule. Consider the 1971 Big 8 conference, where Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Colorado finished 1-2-3 in the final polls. In that situation, it would have made complete sense to include the Cornhuskers and Sooners in the College Football Playoff.
Is that the case for the Big Ten this year?
It doesn’t look that way right now. The conference champion is assured of a spot, as both Iowa (Northwestern) and Michigan State (Oregon) defeated opponents that current Pac-12 leader Stanford lost to. Likewise, Oklahoma finished its regular season as the Big 12 champion, and owns four victories over teams currently ranked in the Selection Committee’s top 25. It’s tough foresee any scenario in which the Sooners miss the field.
That leaves only two openings for a second Big Ten team. If Alabama and Clemson take care of business – as expected – they’ll finish 1-2 in the final poll, eliminating any possibility of an at-large bid.
However, if there’s an upset in either one of those contests, the Big Ten is in business. Yes, North Carolina and Florida would own conference championships, but the teams in the B1G would have a better overall body of work. Whether it’s Ohio State (the top at-large candidate if Michigan State wins the conference) or Michigan State (if Iowa wins), the league would have to like its chances at getting a second team in the field, since the goal is to get the four best teams in bracket. Given that the Selection Committee listed Iowa, Michigan State, and the Buckeyes at 4-5-6, it’s seems highly like that they’ll get the coveted fourth spot if Clemson or Alabama should stumble.
Don’t hold your breath, though. Florida’s offense has as much offensive firepower as the 1997 Illinois (0-11, 10.8 ppg) did. And while North Carolina has looked impressive lately, it already has one loss against a team from Palmetto State this season. That doesn’t exactly lead me to believe that the Heels can beat the No. 1 team in the country.
On the other hand, what were the odds that Iowa was going to finish the season undefeated?
It’ll definitely make for an interesting Saturday.
Do I think the Big Ten might be the best conference this year? Sure. You could even make the argument that two of the top four teams reside in the Big Ten, but there’s absolutely no way to know for sure. So yeah, I think the conference deserves it, but I don’t think it’ll ever happen. After all, this isn’t the SEC where losses are somehow forgotten faster than a phone number during a drunk stupor.
I will give the CFP Committee credit though. I don’t believe it will hesitate to put two teams from the same conference in. Its job is to put the best four teams in regardless, and if it means two from one conference, I think it’ll get done. Jeff Long has said as much multiple times. In all likelihood, the only way it happens is if Ohio State gets elevated because Michigan State or Iowa will likely drop out with a loss in Indy.
But for the Buckeyes to get a shot to repeat, things have to get more chaotic and impropable than a Donald Trump political rally. Alabama absolutely has to lose, and it may take Standford and Clemson getting knocked off as well. The committee has already laid down a baseline for North Carolina not getting the nod over OSU because of strength of schedule, and I think it would be hard to put a team like Alabama or Clemson in right after it just lost.
More than likely, only one Big Ten team gets in with OSU being the first team out. I’m rooting for mayhem though because I think it might usher in more discussions for an eight-team playoff that would ratchet up the fun-meter, and include all of the potential one-loss teams that will ultimately have a legitimate argument.
To be frank … you … yes, you, faithful reader … deserve a date with Kate Upton more than the Big Ten does of getting two teams in the playoff. I’m a card carrying member of the “conference champs only” crowd so long as there are this many conferences, though North Carolina winning would test my patience and my membership.
The only way it happens or comes close to having an argument of happening is if UNC beats Clemson on something flukey, Southern Cal dispenses of Stanford, and Michigan State/Iowa is a nail-biter with MSU winning or is a total MSU paddling (think, 59-0), which would let Ohio State … this year’s cliche “this team is the one you don’t want to play but if they got in, they’d win and everyone knows it” group.
Still, I’d think UNC would get the nod. Looking at common opponents, both destroyed Illinois and while UNC struggled with Virginia Tech and has a loss to a poorer team than Ohio State, it’s worth noting that Virginia Tech was well in the game with OSU into the second half. I just think the committee rightly will try to avoid setting the precedent of multiple teams from one conference when there are conference champs to be left out with a similar either amount of losses or resume. OSU’s is slightly better right now.
The other snakey situation would involve Florida defeating Alabama, USC over Stanford, and UNC over Clemson. But, let’s be honest … is all of that happening? This is about “deserve,” not “is the world ending this weekend.”
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Have a question you’d like Phil, Bart and Terry to discuss? email at the above links or send us a tweet and we’ll think about multiple ways to disagree on the answer. Follow Phil on Twitter @PhilHarrisonCFB, Bart @TheCoachBart, and Terry @SectionTPJ
