When looking at the resumes of teams the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has placed at the top of the next-to-last rankings, one thing is abundantly clear: the committee values quality wins over losses.
While strength of schedule is a hot button topic for the committee, the past two seasons have shown it is more important to lose to a worse team than a quality squad, because of the value of quality wins.
Case in point: Oklahoma. The Sooners are third in the nation for the second straight week, despite the constant argument of them losing to ragtag Texas earlier in the season. Had Oklahoma lost to TCU, Baylor, or Oklahoma State, there would be a different discussion right now.
Even last year, when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes were able to right the ship and get into the playoff. At the time, it appeared the committee put them in based on how well they were playing at the time. There may have been some merit to that, but if Ohio State had lost to either Michigan State, Wisconsin, or even Minnesota last season, we would be seeing a different defending champion.
Oklahoma has rebounded well after a loss in the first half of the season, just as Ohio State did last season. The interesting aspect is that the Sooners never dropped far enough in the rankings for the Texas loss to hit home because they started the backloaded gauntlet in the Big 12 just after that. With the three wins over Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State, Oklahoma shot up the rankings and has all but clinched a spot in the playoff.
In the opposite boat is ironically the 2015 Ohio State team. While the Buckeyes sit at number six, it would take a classic “chaos scenario” for them to get in. With a win in the Pac-12 title game, it is assumed that Stanford would jump them, dropping the Buckeyes even further. Ohio State had a backloaded schedule as well. With wins over Michigan, Michigan State, and Iowa in three of the final four weeks, it would have locked up a spot in the playoff. However, with the loss to the Spartans, Ohio State absorbed that dreaded quality loss. The most damaging dimension of that loss is that it locked the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes were able to jump TCU and Baylor last season because they were conference champions. They can’t do that this time. They need chaos to pull off the improbable.
That makes North Carolina an interesting case. With a win in the ACC Championship Game, the Tar Heels would have a win against the top team in the nation and a solid Pitt squad, and a loss to South Carolina. The main thing that leaves North Carolina at No. 10 in the rankings — still on the outside, even with a win over Clemson — is the fact that the Tar Heels would have only one quality win. Overall strength of schedule would hurt them.
The only one-loss team that does not fit this trend as much this season is Alabama. The Tide lost to arguably the strongest team it has played in Ole Miss, but still sits at No. 2 in the poll. Alabama has wins over fringe ranked teams in Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, but lacks that true strong win.
Who you know often matters in life, and with the playoff selection committee, it is a question of whom you beat. If you lose to a bad team, that’s okay as long as you win impressively enough — that is the recipe for getting in.
