It’s Friday, which means its time for me to tell you what you need to know for this Saturday’s games. Here’s a list of thoughts, observations, and things to watch for in week 12.
- I don’t know what to make of this weekend’s slate of games. Sure, there are some fantastic tilts on the schedule, but there also several contests that pit the “big boy conferences” against either an FCS opponent or an FBS bottom feeder. Until the Selection Committee starts penalizing teams for doing this late in the season, the practice is going to continue. That’s a bad thing, since consuming too many cupcakes will ruin your Thanksgiving dinner.
- There’s been a lot of chatter about some alleged injustices in the College Football Playoff rankings. My advice is to ignore it, because these standings are completely useless until the final edition is released. Until that time, the Selection Committee can and will change its mind about who’s in and who’s out. So the best thing to do is to hope your team wins and let the chips fall where they may.
- That advice is especially true for SEC fans. At the end of the 2013 season, every Southern football fan was complaining that Ohio State didn’t belong in the BCS title game over Auburn. Yet, Michigan State defeated the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game, and ended the debate once and for all.
- It’s certainly possible that the Spartans could do it again in 2015. Yes, the MSU defense isn’t what it was last year, but it’s been at best against quality opponents this year, allowing just 230 yards per game against ranked opponents (tops in the nation) and 362.6 yards per game versus FBS teams with a winning record (17th nationally).
- On the other hand, Michigan State’s lone loss came against Nebraska, which ranks second in the Big Ten in total offense. The only team that averages more yards per game is Ohio State, with 453.3.
- I also think the Buckeyes have the advantage in this game because of the loss to the Spartans in the 2013 B1G title game. That painful defeat forced Ohio State to get better on defense. Two years later, the Bucks rank second nationally in scoring defense, eighth in passing defense, and ninth in total defense.
- So, who’s going to win? I’d like to submit our Big Ten expert Phil Harrison’s column into evidence as Exhibit A.
- Baylor-Oklahoma State might be the most intriguing game on the docket. Sure, many people have given up on the Bears after they lost to Oklahoma last week. However, it’s worth noting that the Big 12 hasn’t had a team go undefeated in league play since 2009. That means that if Baylor wins out, it would earn at least a share of the conference championship, which would be its third straight.
- In other words: expect the Bears to come out fired up to win this game rather than saying “we had nothing to play for,” as the losing team in the Sugar Bowl has done over the past few years.
- Make no mistake about it: Baylor is capable of winning this game. The Bear offense has had no trouble moving the ball away from home this year, averaging 642.3 yards per game and 8.74 yards per attempt. That total includes Jarrett Stidham’s first start against Kansas State, when the team rolled up 524 yards despite playing against a Wildcat unit that was doing everything it could to shorten the game.
- As explosive as Oklahoma State’s offense is (497.6 yer game, 6.0 yards per play), the defense holds the key to victory against Baylor. After all, in the Bears’ last three losses, they’ve had trouble throwing the ball because they’ve allowed 11 sacks. That doesn’t bode well against a fierce Cowboy front seven that ranks fourth nationally in sacks, averaging 3.5 per contest.
- Kind of makes you wonder why top pass rusher Emmanuel Ogbah (11 sacks) was left off the Lombardi Award list, doesn’t it?
- Even if Oklahoma State’s defense struggles to stop Baylor’s offense from moving the chains, I still like its chances to win the game because it is one of the most opportunistic units in the land. Throughout the offseason the Cowboy defense has stressed the importance of turnovers — so much so, that it had its own hashtag on Twitter. This emphasis has paid off, as OSU has generated a Big 12-best 24 turnovers.
- Just how much better is Oklahoma’s offense this year than it was last year? We’ll find out when the Sooners play TCU on Saturday. While OU had trouble with accuracy last year (38.8% completion percentage), it still managed to throw for 309 yards on just 14 completions. It’ll be interesting to see how Baker Mayfield fares against a Horned Frog defense that ranks 72nd nationally against the pass.
- The flip side of that matchup will be equally entertaining. The duel between Trevone Boykin (439.7 yards per game against FBS teams with a winning record, tops in the nation) against an Oklahoma secondary that ranks 12th nationally in interceptions will be worth the price of admission.
- Of course, the Horned Frogs don’t have to rack up 500 yards of total offense to get the “W.” TCU is 8-1 over the last two seasons when it fails to eclipse the 500-yard barrier. The lone loss was the infamous 61-58 defeat to Baylor.
- Although he’s still got an uphill climb to win college football’s highest honor, Leonard Fournette still has a chance to get back in the Heisman Trophy race against Ole Miss this weekend. With a strong performance — namely more than the 127 yards Derrick Henry recorded — against a Rebel defense that ranks 11th nationally in yards per carry (3.19), Fournette could certainly make a statement. It’s a long shot, but stranger things have happened.
- That’s not likely to happen. After giving up a whopping 605 yards against Arkansas, Mississippi has had two weeks to get ready to stop the Tigers’ vaunted ground game. Considering that the Rebels have allowed only 156 yards rushing on 64 carries (2.44 ypc) in games following a loss this season, I like their chances to win this contest.
- While I’m not a proponent of expanding the College Football Playoff, this weekend’s USC-Oregon matchup has me disliking the idea a little less. Written off completely after some early season losses, both teams have rallied to defeat the top team in their division, and still have a chance to play for the conference title. How’s that for a lesson in perseverance?
