Thoughts, Observations, and Things to Watch For in Week 5

Week five promises to be the most exciting one yet, featuring five matchups between top 25 opponents.

Here are some thoughts, stats, and observations to pay attention to this weekend:

• As I wrote in our roundtable discussion, Notre Dame–Clemson is the most intriguing game of the week. The battle between the Irish offense – which ranks in the top 15 in both total offense (15th) and rushing offense (12th) – and a smothering Tiger defense that’s in the national top 10 in scoring defense (10th), total defense (9th), and third down efficiency (3rd) will be worth the price of admission.
• What’s notable about the individual matchup above is that both teams have excelled on second down this year, with Notre Dame running for an average of 8.07 yards per carry and Clemson allowing just 3.19 yards per carry.
• By the same token, I’m excited to how Deshaun Watson will fare against the Notre Dame defense. Sure, the Irish defense gives up its share of yardage, but it’s one of the best in the nation at killing drives, allowing opponents to convert on only 16 of 61 third-down attempts this season.
• On the other hand, Watson is completing 74.4% of his passes, and is 10 of 13 for 127 yards on third down and less then 10, with 9 of those completions going for first downs.
• Alabama at Georgia is the game that will have the most significant impact on the College Football Playoff race. After all, a Dawg victory would vault them into the top three. If — and it’s a big if — the win is decisive enough, UGA could potentially steal some first-place votes from Ole Miss and Michigan State.
• History suggests that Tide will bounce back. The last time Alabama opened up 0-2 in SEC play was back in 1990.
• Of course, it’s also worth pointing out that Georgia was the team that pinned the second loss on the Crimson Tide that year, defeating them 17-16 ‘Tween the Hedges.
• The key to victory for the Bulldogs will be to establish the run. The Dawgs are 46-4 under Mark Richt when they run for more than 200 yards.
• That won’t be an easy task. Alabama’s defense ranks fourth nationally against the run (56.75 ypg), and has only allowed 15 100-yard rushers since 2005, the lowest total in the FBS during that span.
• It’ll be interesting to see what happens if the Tide is able to take away the running game. After all, Alabama’s defense has been “lights out” on third and longer than four, allowing opponents to complete only 17 of 43 passes for 139 yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Dawg offense that’s just 10 of 19 passing on third down.
• Then again, Greyson Lambert is 25 of 27 (92.6%) for 326 yards and 4 TDs on first downs this season.
• West Virginia-Oklahoma is the most underrated game on Saturday’s docket. I don’t care how many games there are between ranked opponents, this matchup should have received a lot more attention than it has. After all, it features two teams that rank in the top 20 in both scoring offense and total offense.
• Although the Mountaineers are known for having a high octane offense, their defense has been responsible for the team’s success early in the season. Opposing teams haven’t been able to punch the ball in end zone against the stout West Virginia D, which leads the nation in scoring defense and interceptions.
• It’s also worth noting that the Mountaineer run defense held Georgia Southern — which is fourth nationally in rushing with an average of 358 yards per game — to fewer than 200 yards on the ground. That hasn’t happened since 2011.
• Make no mistake about it: Baker Mayfield is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He’s especially dangerous in the second half, completing 37 of 47 (78.7%) passes for 442 yards and 6 TDs.
• The Oklahoma defense is also much better than people realize. While critics will point out the Sooners’ struggles against Tulsa — which has moved the ball well against everybody this season — it’s tough to ignore how well OU played on the road at Tennessee, limiting the Vols to a season-low 254 yards and a paltry 2.9 yards per carry.
• I’m surprised that the media has focused so much on 2008 Mississippi-Florida this week. Sure, it was memorable, and it led to Tim Tebow’s famous promise. However, in that case, the Rebels were the clear underdog. This time, Ole Miss is the favorite to win the SEC, making Saturday’s contest the complete opposite of what it was last time.
• With that said, don’t count the Gators out of this one — their ability to get the job done on fourth down demands respect. Florida’s offense leads the nation on fourth down conversions, converting on all 10 of its opportunities, including 5-for-5 against Tennessee last week. That’s the type of stat champions are made of.
• The Rebel defense has also come up big on fourth down this year, allowing opponents to convert just two of nine fourth-down opportunities.
• Keep an eye on the battle between the Ole Miss offense and the Florida defense. The Rebels have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, averaging 7.63 yards per play. That offense will square off against a Gator defense which ranks 24th nationally in yards per play and 22nd against the run.
• For what it’s worth, Ole Miss ranks 17th in the country in yards per play, allowing just 4.35 yards per contest. It’ll be interesting to see how well the Gators’ improved offense will fare against a such a resilient unit.
• Mississippi State at Texas A&M will have a bigger impact on the SEC race than Mississippi-Florida. After all, a Bulldog win keeps the team alive in the West division race, whereas a loss would knock them out. Similarly, the Aggies need to win this game to stay at the top of the standings, and prove they’re contenders. A&M doesn’t want to doubt itself over the next two weeks as it prepares for Alabama.
• The matchup to pay attention to in this contest is the Bulldog offense against the Aggie defense, which pits strength against strength. It’ll be interesting to see whether the MSU offense — which has 474.4 yards per game in Dak Prescott’s 24 starts — or a stout A&M defense that ranks third nationally in sacks will prevail.
• This week’s upset special is Louisville over North Carolina State. Yes, I realize that 1-3 record looks bad, but those losses were against Auburn, Houston, and Clemson — the last two of which are undefeated. After dropping so many tight contests, the Cardinals are bound to win one. They’ll definitely have the advantage over North Carolina State in that department, as the Wolfpack have yet to be challenged this season. Look for the Cardinal defense — which limited Deshaun Watson to just 199 yards passing — to dominate this contest and lead the team to a much-needed ACC victory.