Week 11 promises to be an exciting one with a docket that includes three matchups between teams ranked in the College Football Playoff’s top 25. Here’s a list of thoughts, observations, and things to watch for this weekend.
- I know that I’ve said it before, but I’ll mention it again: don’t get too worked up over the current College Football Playoff rankings because they’re meaningless — and to be honest, not worth watching. The only poll that matters is the one at the end of the season. There’s a lot that can happen between now and then, and the Selection Committee seems to change its mind on what matters most on a weekly basis. With that being the case, the only thing that a team can do is focus on what it can control, which is winning football games.
- That’s why I think the teams in the Big 12 are still in good shape in the national championship picture. Sure, various media outlets have already said the league won’t get in the field without an undefeated conference champion. Yet, if Oklahoma were to win out, it would own three consecutive victories over teams currently in the Top 25 of the College Football Playoff rankings. Isn’t that what Ohio State — who most experts said had no chance at making the field last year — did to close out the 2014-15 campaign?
- Didn’t the Buckeyes get in the field?
- In order to do that, the Sooners would need to get past undefeated Baylor, which has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 89-26.
- The key matchup in that contest is the Oklahoma ground game against Baylor’s run defense. Even though the Sooners run the Air Raid offense, they still need to establish the ground game in order to be successful. Remember, OU’s lone loss came against Texas, when it averaged just 1.8 yards per carry. It’ll be interesting to see how the Sooners fare against a Bear defense that ranks 17th nationally in tackles for a loss per game (7.75).
- On the other side of the ball, expect Baylor’s offense to keep the chains moving. Whether it’s on the ground as it did in 2013 (255 yards rushing) or through the air as it did last year (398 yards), the Bear offense has more than enough weapons on offense to keep the sticks moving against the Sooners, ranking fourth nationally in rushing and seventh in passing.
- Oklahoma’s best chance to stop Baylor’s offense is with its pass rush. In the Bears’ two losses last season, they allowed an average of 4.5 sacks per game.
- Will that tactic work? It’s tough to say. Oklahoma is second in the nation in sacks per game, averaging 3.67 per contest. However, Baylor has allowed only nine sacks this season, the ninth-best total in the country.
- There’s a reason that Alabama is a decisive favorite to beat Mississippi State this weekend. Sure, the game is being played in Starkville, but that’s like a second home to the Crimson Tide under Nick Saban. In four games in Davis Wade Stadium, Saban’s defense has allowed an average of 189 yards per game.
- Yet, the Bulldogs did win one of those matchups, a 17-12 victory back in 2007.
- However, there’s absolutely no chance for a State upset over the Crimson Tide this year. The Dawg D has struggled against the run in conference play this season, allowing 208 yards per game in SEC contests. That doesn’t sound like a unit that’s ready to stop Derrick Henry, who shredded a solid LSU defense for 210 yards and 3 TDs.
- In other words, if the SEC is going to get knocked out of the College Football Playoff, it’s not going to be as a direct result of anything that transpires this weekend.
- On the other hand, things could get very interesting in the Pac-12 this weekend with Oregon visiting Stanford. While the Cardinal are the hottest team in country right now, it’s worth noting that in their only loss this season, they gave up 225 yards on the ground. Considering that they’re playing against a potent Duck offense which runs for an average of 304 yards per game in Pac-12 play, the Cardinal defense had better come ready to play…
- …unless the Selection Committee wants to factor in the non-optimal kickoff time again, in which case they’d dismiss a potential loss.
- The game lost a little bit of its luster after the Tigers’ loss to Navy last week, but the Memphis-Houston matchup is still one of the most important games on the schedule. Sure, both teams would need a lot of help in order to make it to the College Football Playoff, but the bottom line is that the winner of this game is in excellent shape to capture the Group of Five bid.
- More importantly, this contest features the one the best quarterback duels in the country between Paxton Lynch and Greg Ward, Jr. While each player has different strengths, each is extremely effective, with both teams ranking in the top 10 in scoring offense. It’ll definitely be worth the price of admission!
