Yesterday, we talked about teams that we thought would take a huge step forward in 2016. Today, we’ll discuss which programs are headed in the opposite direction.
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Question: Which 2015 conference champion will suffer the biggest dropoff in 2016?
Phil Harrison
On Twitter @PhilHarrisonCFB
I know this is going to be a popular choice, but I think the DJ and mixed drinks at the Sparty party is likely to be shut down this year. The neighbors are getting richer, and it’s going to be tough to repeat what happened last year while breaking in a new starting quarterback and trying to find guys to replace wholesale losses across the board.
The line of scrimmage will have to go through an extreme makeover of sorts with Jack Conklin, Jack Allen and Donavon Clark gone on offense, and Shilique Calhoun, Lawrence Thomas and Joel Heath moving onto the next phases of their lives on the D-line.
And where will the playmakers be on the outside? The coaches might need to embark upon a Lord of the Rings expedition to replace the two top receivers in Macgarrett Kings Jr. and Big Ten receiver of the year Aaron Burbridge.
Okay, what about the schedule?
It’s not like there’s a ton of layups to build towards a proverbial peak at the end of the season either. There’s a big one out of the gate in week two at Notre Dame, and although a lot of the heavy lifting will be done in East Lansing, it’s unwelcome and rude guests coming for dinner with the likes of Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State all with place settings at the table. There’s also the trip to Happy Valley at the end of the season where James Franklin is beginning to amass the type of talent that’s chomping at the bit bring Penn State back to prominence.
I just don’t see how the combination of personnel losses, schedule, and player development can all work out for Mark Dantonio this year. If there’s a silver lining, at least he’s brought the program to enough respect to have folks believing he can simply retool and move on.
If he does, it’s the type of stuff that’ll get you coach of the year in almost any circle. Even in Ann Arbor.
Joe Dexter
On Twitter @BuckeyeRadio
I’m going to go the easy route here and pick Bowling Green, who gave nearly everyone they played a run for their money a year ago.
Matt Johnson and company put together one of the best seasons in school history — taking the MAC championship from Northern Illinois.
Just how good was Johnson? He completed more passes over 20 yards than any other player in the country last season. He scored 46 touchdowns and Bowling Green scored darn near 600 points.
The Falcons are trying to replace nearly 600 points of offense, one of the greatest quarterbacks in school history, his top two receivers, and the team’s leading rusher.
Did I also mention they are also going through a slight scheme change under air-raid expert Mike Jinks, who is the new sheriff in town?
Let’s also throw in a schedule that includes conference games on the road against Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, and Akron.
The Falcons might be able to compete in a lot of ballgames in 2016, I just don’t see them winning very many.
Terry Johnson:
On Twitter @SectionTPJ
Without question, it’s the Michigan State Spartans.
Make no mistake about it: Mark Dantonio’s team was absolutely spectacular last season. Whenever Sparty needed to come up with a play to keep its championship hopes alive, it did so. Whether it was an improbable blocked kick, a tough victory on the road without Connor Cook, or a punishing, fourth quarter drive to earn the Big Ten a title and a berth in the College Football Playoff, last year’s Michigan State team delivered. As a result of this courage under fire, the Spartans went an amazing 7-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season.
That last sentence is why I think Michigan State is headed for a bit of a dropoff in 2016. Although Sparty deserves all of the credit in the world for coming through at crunch time, the fact of the matter is that those things have a way of evening out over time. Just ask the 2014 Auburn Tigers, who couldn’t seem to buy a break just one year after having everything fall into place to reach the BCS title game.
It’s also worth noting that the Spartans are one of the least experienced teams in the country, returning just 10 starters, which ranks 113th among FBS teams. While Michigan State has plenty of talent on its roster, I don’t see them matching last year’s production with Shilique Calhoun, Aaron Burbridge, Jack Conklin, Donavon Clark, and Connor Cook now playing in the NFL. Expect this year’s squad to finish no higher than third in the Big Ten East.
Kevin Causey
On Twitter @CFBZ
This is a tough one. My head tells me the answer to this question is probably Michigan State or, if there is an injury, it could be Clemson or Oklahoma.
The run that Alabama has been on has been amazing. They are coming off of a 14-1 season in which they won the National Championship. Anything less than that this year is going to be a drop-off. But how big of a drop off will the Crimson Tide have? They lost their Heisman Trophy winning running back and their quarterback and have to replace (or re-load) a number of other starting positions as well as some reshuffling and replacing of their coaching staff.
Alabama will still be very good this season but I do think they will take a small step back and that could mean missing out on the College Football Playoff which would be a pretty big drop-off from winning the whole thing. Look for Alabama to have another very good season but somebody will keep them out of the SEC Championship or will upset them in the SEC Championship which will constitute a drop-off of epic proportions for the lunatic fringe part of the Bama fanbase.
